Tag Archives: 4.) Marc to Market

Overview:  Japanese efforts to curb the weakness of the yen provided drama today. What many suspect was intervention before the weekend was wearing off and officials may have sold dollars again today in front of JPY150. Despite initial success, the dollar is back near JPY149.50 as the North American session is about to begin. The end of the Chinese Congress has seen the yuan weaken to new lows. While the large bourses in the Asia Pacific region rose, China and Hong...

There are five macro highlights in the week ahead. After providing a thumbnail sketch of them, we will look more closely at the price action of the leading dollar-pairs. We suspect that the dollar is in the process of carving out a top amid ideas that a 5.0% terminal Fed funds rate is discounted. Sterling’s panic low recorded late September near $1.0350 may indeed by the cyclical low. It took place amid cries that it was an emerging market and linear projections...

Overview: The continued surge in US rates and inability of the equity market to sustain gains saw the post-Truss sterling rally unwind amid a broader recovery of the dollar. Sterling has been sold to new lows for the week. Meanwhile, the dollar has held above JPY150, and the BOJ hand has not been seen. It rose to almost JPY151 in Europe. Equity markets are on the defensive. Nearly all the bourses in Asia fell, and the 1.65% drop of the Stoxx 600 is the biggest loss...

Overview: China and Japan continue to struggle to stabilize their currencies, while global interest rates rise. The offshore yuan has fallen to new lows but in late dealings the onshore and offshore yuan have recovered. The dollar also traded above JPY150 for the first time since 1990 and the market knows it is on thin ice as with the threat of official intervention. A risk-off mood permeates. Equity markets have retreated in the Asia Pacific region and Europe. US...

Overview: Asia Pacific equities were mixed as the China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, and South Korean markets, among the large markets were unable to gain in the wake of a solid performance in the US. Europe is also struggling to maintain the upside momentum that has lifted the Stoxx 600 for the past four sessions. It is nearly flat as this note is penned. US futures are firm. Benchmark bond yields are higher, and the 10-year US Treasury yield is edging above 4.05%. European...

Overview:  Global equities moved higher in the wake of the strong gains in the US yesterday. US futures point to the possibility of a gap higher opening today. Most of the large Asia Pacific bourses rallied 1%-2%, with China’s CSI a notable exception, slipping fractionally. Europe’s Stoxx 600 is edging higher and is near two-week highs. If the gains are sustained, it will be the fourth consecutive advancing session, the longest in two months. Benchmark yields are...

Overview: The markets have returned from the weekend with a greater appetite for risk. Equities and bonds are rallying, and the dollar is better offered. China, Hong Kong, South Korea, and Indian bourses advanced. Mainland shares edged higher even though Zhengzhou, a city of one million people, near an iPhone manufacturing hub was locked down due to Covid. Europe’s Stoxx 600 is up nearly 0.5% to extend its recovery into a third session. US futures are trading a...

By nearly any measure one chooses, the dollar is historically rich. When it does turn, it would likely be dramatic. That is what happened after the stronger-than-expected US CPI figures. However, the lack of follow-through is what one would expect if the greenback’s bull move was intact.Still, we expect the dollar’s super-cycle is entering a new phase. The market has practically priced in a 5.0% terminal Fed funds rate, and we suspect that it needs clear guidance...

The latest US employment and inflation figures are passed. The market is confident of a 75 bp rate hike next month. While a 50 bp in December is still the odds-on favorite, the market has a slight chance (~15%) of a 100 bp move instead after the robust jobs report and stronger-than-expected September CPI. The implied yield of the December Fed funds futures has ground higher for 12 consecutive sessions to about 4.23%. After two straight quarters of contraction, the...

Overview: There has been little follow-through dollar selling so far today after yesterday’s dramatic downside reversal after the initial flurry of buying in response to the stronger than expected US CPI. Still, the upticks look corrective in nature and the intraday momentum indicators are stretched, raising the prospect of new sales by North American operators today. The sharp recovery in US equities did carry over into Asia and Europe where most bourses are ending...