SNB & CHF

Summary: US yields have trended lower as oil prices have trended higher. The correlation between the 10-year breakeven and oil has also weakened considerably. Technicals readings are getting stretched, but no compelling sign of a top. Rising oil prices traditionally boost inflation expectations and US interest rates. The May futures contract for light sweet crude oil is up today for the sixth consecutive...

As earnings season begins for Q1 2017 reports, there isn’t much change in analysts’ estimates for S&P 500 companies for that quarter. The latest figures from S&P shows expected earnings (as reported) of $26.70 in Q1, as compared to $26.87 two weeks ago. That is down only $1 from October, which is actually pretty steady particularly when compared to Q4 2016 estimates that over the same time plummeted from $29.04...

– Perth Mint’s silver bullion sales rise 43% in March.– Perth Mint’s monthly gold coin, bars sales fall 12%.– Gold silver ratio of 32 – 32 times more silver ounces sold.– Gold: 22,232 oz and Silver: 716,283 oz – bullion coins and minted bars sold. – Gold is 2.6% higher and silver surged 3.1% in the shortened week with markets closed for Good Friday tomorrow. Australian Kangaroo 2017, 1 oz 9999 Silver The Perth Mint’s...

While much has been written about the massive retail decline in America, Charles sheds interesting light upon another core cause of the retail apocalypse. Namely, Millennials, due to staggering student loan debt, have lowered expectations and are staying close to urban downtowns. They have smaller homes, less need for expensive furnishings and have often shed the shackles of the automobile. When combined with ease of online shopping and their inclination to save more than their Boomer...

– Gold price breaks above key 200-day moving average– Gold hits 5-month high on back of investor nervousness– Safe haven has 10% gains in 2017 after 9% gains in 2016– Gold options signal more gains as ETF buying increases– Geopolitical uncertainty over North Korea & Middle East– Tensions high -World awaits US move & Russia response– Russia says chemical attack was terrorist “false flag”– Poor March jobs report...

– Gold price breaks above key 200-day moving average– Gold hits 5-month high on back of investor nervousness– Safe haven has 10% gains in 2017 after 9% gains in 2016– Gold options signal more gains as ETF buying increases– Geopolitical uncertainty over North Korea & Middle East– Tensions high -World awaits US move & Russia response– Russia says chemical attack was terrorist “false flag”– Poor March jobs report...

Summary: The euro has fallen for 11 consecutive sessions against the yen. Interest rates, US and German in particular, seem to be the main driver. Technicals are stretched, but have not signaled a reversal yet. Looking for a trend in the foreign exchange market? The euro is weaker against the yen for the 11th consecutive session today, which is the longest streak in the euro’s natural life. Since March 17, the...

Marc Chandler In Bloomberg I was on Bloomberg TV earlier today, chatting with David Gura about how to try to make sense of new Trump Administration.   I suggest that the decision-making style and practical concerns have created two wing to the Administration. There is a populist-nationalist wing that is home to America First ideas.  The other wing is much more rooted in American political tradition.  Many things, for...

Marc Chandler In Bloomberg I was on Bloomberg TV earlier today, chatting with David Gura about how to try to make sense of new Trump Administration.   I suggest that the decision-making style and practical concerns have created two wing to the Administration. There is a populist-nationalist wing that is home to America First ideas.  The other wing is much more rooted in American political tradition.  Many things, for...

In June 2012, Janet Yellen, then the Vice Chairman of the Federal Reserve, addressed an audience in Boston with what for the time seemed like a radical departure. It was the latest in a string of them, for conditions throughout the “recovery” period never did quite seem to hit the recovery stride. Because of that, there was constant stream of trial balloons suggesting how the Federal Reserve might try to overcome this...