SNB & CHF

A Very Odd Growth Spurt in the True Money Supply The growth rates of various “Austrian” measures of the US money supply (such as TMS-2 and money AMS) have accelerated significantly in recent months.  That is quite surprising, as the Fed hasn’t been engaged in QE for quite some time and year-on-year growth in commercial bank credit has actually slowed down rather than accelerating of late. The only exception to this is...

Dollar-yen has been driven by the sharp rise in US bond yields. There are some (dollar) bearish divergences in the JPY/USD technicals. US 10-year yields may also be putting in a near-term top. Since the US election nearly a month ago, the Japanese yen has been the weakest performing major currency. It has fallen 7.5% against the US dollar. At the risk of oversimplifying, there is one major drag on the yen, and that...

Summary: The Dollar Index’s technical tone has deteriorated. It is corresponding to the easing of US rates and a narrowing differential. The risk is that the correction can continue in the coming days. We took a closer look at the US Dollar Index last week. In our write up, we noted highlighted the importance of the 100.60 area. We warned that a break of that support could signal the start of a deeper...

Swiss Franc EUR/CHF - Euro Swiss Franc, December 05(see more posts on EUR/CHF, ). - Click to enlarge FX Rates After softening ahead of the weekend, the US dollar has begun the new week on a firm note.  It is gaining against most major and emerging market currencies.  Outside of what appears to be a staged call between US President Elect Trump and the Taiwanese President, the developments in Europe grabbed the...

In the summer months, the Swiss hotels registered more guests from Switzerland. from the United States and from Europe. But there was a sharp decline of guest from Asia. 100’000 more overnight stays from Switzerland could not recover the decrease of 200’000. One important reason for decline is the weakening Chinese currency, that reduced their purchasing power, in dollar but also in CHF. CNY is Weakening and...

Summary: US developments have driven the dollar rally and bond market decline over the past three weeks. Attention shifts to European politics and the ECB meeting. Bank of Canada and the Reserve Bank of Australia meet but are unlikely to change policy. United States There were significant moves in interest rates and currencies last month. The drama was primarily spurred by the solidification of expectations...

Update December 2016: Italians rejected the referendum that seeks to increase power of the prime minister and reduce power of the two chambers parliament. Prime minister Renzi has promised to resign. This opens the door for new elections, in which the anti-euro parties Movimento 5 stelle (5 star movement) and Lega Nord (Northern League) may strengthen. ————————————————————————————— Update December 2013: Bear in mind...

Stock Markets EM remains a mixed bag. Despite the negative connotations of a rising US rate environment, EM gathered an element of stability last week as the dollar consolidated its recent gains. Rising commodity prices are also helping EM at the margin, with RUB and COP amongst the best last week on higher oil and CLP on higher copper.  The tone for markets this week will likely be set by political developments in...

Swiss Franc Currency Index The Swiss Franc index continued around its 4% loss since the U.S. elections, while the US Dollar index had a 4% increase. Trade-weighted index Swiss Franc, December 02(see more posts on Swiss Franc Index, ). Swiss Franc Currency Index (3 years) The Swiss Franc index is the trade-weighted currency performance (see the currency basket) On a three years interval, the Swiss...

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