by © Marekusz | Dreamstime.com An updated forecast published this week by the Switzerland’s federal government is less negative than forecasters feared in the middle of the year. The new forecast expects Swiss GDP adjusted for sporting events to fall by 3.8% in 2020 and unemployment to average 3.2% across the year. The forecast in June ...
Topics:
Investec considers the following as important: 3) Swiss Markets and News, 3.) Investec, Featured, newsletter
This could be interesting, too:
Eamonn Sheridan writes CHF traders note – Two Swiss National Bank speakers due Thursday, November 21
Charles Hugh Smith writes How Do We Fix the Collapse of Quality?
Marc Chandler writes Sterling and Gilts Pressed Lower by Firmer CPI
Michael Lebowitz writes Trump Tariffs Are Inflationary Claim The Experts
© Marekusz | Dreamstime.com
An updated forecast published this week by the Switzerland’s federal government is less negative than forecasters feared in the middle of the year.
The new forecast expects Swiss GDP adjusted for sporting events to fall by 3.8% in 2020 and unemployment to average 3.2% across the year. The forecast in June 2020, predicted a 6.2% fall in GDP and average unemployment of 3.8%.
After the relaxation of health policy measures, the Swiss economy started to swiftly make up lost ground at the end of April, with both consumer and investment demand exceeding expectations in the second quarter and much lower partial unemployment than anticipated in June. Overall, the first half of 2020 was less negative than assumed in the June forecast.
The forecasters expect the recovery in the second quarter to have continued into the third. Some sectors of the economy, including parts of accommodation and food services, were supported by high numbers of Swiss people holidaying domestically. Other industries with a greater dependence on the global economic cycle or with more reliance on international visitors have not recovered as well.
In September 2020, 50,000 more people were out of work than at the same time a year ago.
However, the outlook for 2021 has weakened. GDP growth of 3.8% is now predicted in 2021, compared to the 4.9% predicted in June.
The forecast slump in 2020 and expected rise in 2021 combined suggest Swiss GDP might return to pre-pandemic levels by the end of 2021.
However, the latest forecast assumes there are no widespread coronavirus restrictions going forward. The recovery would be interrupted if widespread business and border closures around the world returned, something that would significantly increase the probability large job cuts and corporate insolvencies.
Other risks include international trade conflict and a correction in the Swiss real estate market. A hard Brexit could affect the Swiss economy by creating upheaval in the financial markets and further upward pressure on the Swiss franc, said the report.
You Might Also Like
Swiss salaries rise faster than inflation for the first time in 2 years
In 2019, Swiss salaries were on average of 0.9% higher than the year before. A nominal rise of +0.9% combined with low inflation of 0.4% delivered a real boost of 0.5% to someone earning an average salary in Switzerland.
Swiss retail sales up 30 percent in May after COVID-19 measures eased
Recently published figures show a overall jump of 30.2% in retail sales in May 2020 compared to April 2020. May’s rise of 30.2% follows falls of 6.5% in March and 13.7% in April.
Unemployment up in second quarter of 2020 in Switzerland
Switzerland’s unemployment rate rose from 4.2% to 4.6% in the second quarter of 2020, according to a recent survey that measures unemployment more broadly than Switzerland’s official unemployment measure. The method used for these calculations is the one defined by the International Labour Organisation (ILO), which includes all available job seekers – ILO definition of unemployment.
Switzerland ranked 4th for economic come back, according to study
A report published this week places Switzerland fourth on a list of countries best positioned to make an economic rebound after the coronavirus downturn. The analysis looks at overall health resilience, pre-existing structural strengths and weaknesses in 122 countries.
Referendum: Swiss to vote on ending EU agreement
On 27 September 2020, Swiss voters have many decisions to make. This time the list of votes includes decisions on fighter jets, hunting, tax deductions for child care and paternity leave. Probably the most important among them is a decision on whether to accept a proposal to end the EU agreement on the free movement of people between Switzerland and the bloc, known as the Limitation Initiative.
Pandemic increases demand for second homes in Switzerland
Demand for second homes has risen since restrictions related to coronavirus were loosened, according to real estate company Wüest Partner.
Coronavirus: Swiss government makes masks compulsory on public transport
On 1 July 2020, Switzerland’s federal government announced that it would become compulsory to wear masks on public transport from 6 July 2020. Due to the the growing number of people using public transport and a rise in the number of people testing positive for SARS-CoV-2 since mid-June, the Federal Council has decided to make it compulsory for those taking public transport to wear a mask.
New Geneva platform to ‘anticipate societal changes’
A new international platform is to be launched in Geneva to anticipate the effects of societal changes amidst the Covid-19 crisis, Swiss President Simonetta Sommaruga said on Wednesday.
Tags: Featured,newsletter