Tag Archives: 5) Global Macro

Given the exquisite precariousness of the global financial system and economy, hopes for a brief and mild downturn are wildly unrealistic. If we asked a panel of epidemiologists to imagine a virus optimized for rapid spread globally and high lethality, they’d likely include these characteristics: 1. Highly contagious, with an R0 of 3 or higher. 2. A novel virus, so there’s no immunity via previous exposure. 3. Those carrying the pathogen can infect others while...

The still-growing impact of the coronavirus should keep EM and risk sentiment under pressure this week.  The weekend G20 meeting in Saudi Arabia acknowledged the risks to the global economy and said participants agreed on a “menu of policy options.” However, the G20 offered little specific in terms of a coordinated policy response.  AMERICAS Mexico reports mid-February CPI Monday, which is expected to rise 3.56% y/y vs. 3.18% in mid-January. If so, inflation would...

If you think global demand will rebound as global debt and confidence implode, you better not be making consequential decisions based on Euphorestra-addled magical thinking. Even before the Covid-19 pandemic, the global economy was slowing for two reasons: 1) everybody who can afford it already has it and 2) overcapacity. One word captures the end-of-the-cycle stagnation: saturation. Everyone who can afford a smartphone (or can borrow to buy one) already has...

Developed equity markets remain near the highs despite mounting concerns about the impact of the coronavirus MSCI World made a new all-time high last week near 2435 and is up 2.5% YTD Our 1-rated grouping (outperformers) for Q1 2020 consists of Ireland, Israel, New Zealand, Spain, and Switzerland Our 5-rated grouping (underperformers) for Q1 2020 consists of the Italy, Germany, Portugal, Japan, and Greece Since our last update on November 19, our proprietary DM...

Negative news on the coronavirus has kept risk appetite subdued across the board; the dollar rally continues During the North American session, we will get some more clues to the state of the US economy; FOMC minutes were largely as expected UK January retail sales came in firm; ECB releases the account of its January 23 meeting Australia reported firm January jobs data; China commercial banks cut lending rates; Indonesia cut rates 25 bp to 4.75%, as expected The...

This collapse of price will manifest in all sorts of markets that are based on debt-funded purchases of desires rather than a warily prudent priority on needs. Since markets are supposed to discover the price of excesses and scarcities, it’s a mystery why everything that is in oversupply is still grossly overpriced as global demand slides off a cliff: oil, semiconductors, Uber rides, AirBNB listings and many other risk-on / global growth stories are still priced as...

We get the first February data from the US manufacturing sector this week; the US economy remains strong; FOMC minutes will be released Wednesday Canada reports some key data this week Preliminary eurozone February PMI readings will be reported Friday; UK has a busy data week Japan has a busy data week; Australia reports January jobs data Thursday Concerns about the coronavirus are likely to keep risk sentiment under pressure, as the ultimate impact is still...

The Fed must now accept responsibility for what happens in the end-game of the Moral-Hazard Monster Bubble it created. Contrary to popular opinion, the Federal Reserve didn’t set out to create a Monster Bubble that has escaped its control. Also contrary to popular opinion, the Fed will be unable to “never let stocks fall ever again–ever!” for the simple reason that the monster it has created– a monster mania of moral hazard in which all risk has vanished...

Markets are reacting badly to upward revisions to coronavirus cases in China The euro fell to the weakest level since mid-2017 against the dollar UK housing data adds to relatively upbeat figures since the December elections Malaysia’s government is joining in the counter-cyclical fiscal effort The dollar is mixed on the day. The yen is 0.3% stronger, briefly trading above the ¥110.0 level on negative headlines about China’s coronavirus infections. The euro and...

Ending the limited quarantine and falsely proclaiming China safe for visitors and business travelers will only re-introduce the virus to workplaces and infect foreigners. China faces an inescapably fatal dilemma: to save its economy from collapse, China’s leadership must end the quarantines soon and declare China “safe for travel and open for business” to the rest of the world. But since 5+ million people left Wuhan to go home for New Years, dispersing throughout...