Tag Archives: 5) Global Macro

Once confidence and certainty are lost, the willingness to expand debt and leverage collapses. Even though the first-order effects of the Covid-19 pandemic are still impossible to predict, it’s already possible to ask: did the pandemic pop all the global financial bubbles? The reason we can ask this question is the entire bull mania of the 21st century has been based on a permanently high rate of expansion of leverage and debt. The lesson of the 2008-09 Global...

The dollar has softened as Fed easing expectations have picked up Late Friday, Chair Powell issued an unscheduled statement saying the Fed is monitoring the virus and will act as appropriate This is a big data week for the US; the Fed releases its Beige Book report Wednesday Super Tuesday comes this week; Bank of Canada meets Wednesday Final eurozone and UK February PMI readings will be reported this week Reserve Bank of Australia meets Tuesday; BOJ Governor Kuroda...

Force cannot restore legitimacy, trust or confidence, nor can it magically erase the consequences of a still-unfolding national trauma. The Chinese authorities threatening to punish workers who refuse to return to work are getting a lesson in the limits of force in an unprecedented national trauma: a bayonet in the back will not restore the legitimacy and confidence that have been lost. There are two enormous blind spots in conventional media coverage of the...

Disregard these second-order effects at your own peril. A great many systems that are assumed to be robust are actually fragile. Exhibit #1 is the global financial system, of course, but Exhibit #2 may well be the healthcare system globally and in the U.S. Observers have noted that the number of available beds in U.S. hospitals is modest compared to the potential demands of a pandemic, and others have wondered who will pay the astronomical bills that will be...

The virus news stream continues to deteriorate Lower US yields and growing concerns about the spread of the coronavirus in the US are taking a toll on the greenback OPEC officials are trying to work out another supply cut; The outlook for Turkey is going from bad to worse Simply put, there is nothing the Fed can do to address the economic impact of supply chain disruptions and social distancing Japan reported mostly weaker data overnight; China reports official...

The greater the excesses, speculative euphoria and moral hazard, the greater the reversal. A very convenient conviction is rising in the panicked financial netherworld that the Federal Reserve and its fellow dark lords will “save the market” from COVID-19 collapse. They won’t. I already explained why in The Fed Has Created a Monster Bubble It Can No Longer Control (February 16, 2020) but it bears repeating. Contrary to naive expectations, the Fed’s primary job isn’t...

Below is a non-exhaustive list of medium- and long-term implications from the Covid-19. We discuss the yuan, China’s competitiveness, its position in the global production chains, the impact on the Phase One trade deal, and rising financial stability risks. Globally, the virus will bring about a new wave of fiscal spending and revive the discussions about the limits of monetary policy. Lastly, we are concerned that the virus may provide further momentum for the...

Given the exquisite precariousness of the global financial system and economy, hopes for a brief and mild downturn are wildly unrealistic. If we asked a panel of epidemiologists to imagine a virus optimized for rapid spread globally and high lethality, they’d likely include these characteristics: 1. Highly contagious, with an R0 of 3 or higher. 2. A novel virus, so there’s no immunity via previous exposure. 3. Those carrying the pathogen can infect others while...

The still-growing impact of the coronavirus should keep EM and risk sentiment under pressure this week.  The weekend G20 meeting in Saudi Arabia acknowledged the risks to the global economy and said participants agreed on a “menu of policy options.” However, the G20 offered little specific in terms of a coordinated policy response.  AMERICAS Mexico reports mid-February CPI Monday, which is expected to rise 3.56% y/y vs. 3.18% in mid-January. If so, inflation would...

If you think global demand will rebound as global debt and confidence implode, you better not be making consequential decisions based on Euphorestra-addled magical thinking. Even before the Covid-19 pandemic, the global economy was slowing for two reasons: 1) everybody who can afford it already has it and 2) overcapacity. One word captures the end-of-the-cycle stagnation: saturation. Everyone who can afford a smartphone (or can borrow to buy one) already has...