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SNB & CHF

China Exports and Industrial Production: Revisiting Once More The True Worst Case

As weird as it may seem at first, the primary economic problem right now is that the global economy looks like it is growing again. There is no doubt that it continues on an upturn, but the mere fact that whatever economic statistic has a positive sign in front of it ends up being classified as some variant of strong. That’s how this works in mainstream analysis, this absence of any sort of gradation where if it’s...

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The Stock Market and the FOMC

An Astonishing Statistic As the final FOMC announcement of the year approaches, we want to briefly return to the topic of how the meeting tends to affect the stock market from a statistical perspective. As long time readers may recall, the typical performance of the stock market in the trading days immediately ahead of FOMC announcements was quite remarkable in recent decades. We are referring to the Seaonax event...

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Jim Grant: “Markets Trust Too Much In The Presence Of Central Banks”

James Grant, Wall Street expert and editor of the renowned investment newsletter «Grant’s Interest Rate Observer», warns of the unseen consequences of super low interest rate and questions the extraordinary actions of the Swiss National Bank. Nearly ten years after the financial crisis, extraordinary monetary policy has become the norm. The financial markets seem to like it: Stocks are close to record levels...

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Jim Grant: “Markets Trust Too Much In The Presence Of Central Banks”

James Grant, Wall Street expert and editor of the renowned investment newsletter «Grant’s Interest Rate Observer», warns of the unseen consequences of super low interest rate and questions the extraordinary actions of the Swiss National Bank. Nearly ten years after the financial crisis, extraordinary monetary policy has become the norm. The financial markets seem to like it: Stocks are close to record levels...

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A crucial step towards US tax cuts

With the approval of the Senate tax bill in the early hours of Saturday 2 December, a key step has been taken toward tax cuts. The next chapter in the process is to reconcile this version with the House of Representatives’ tax bill, most likely in a ‘conference committee ’ from which a final version will emerge. Various lobbies have been taken by surprise by the speed with which tax legislation has moved forward in...

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FX Daily, December 15: Premium for Dollar-Funding is not Helping Greenback Very Much

Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.28% to 1.168 CHF. EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, December 15(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates The cross-currency basis swap continues to lurch in the dollar’s direction, especially against the euro, and yet the dollar is not drawing much support from it. The increasing cost reflects pressure for the year-end and does not appear to...

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Swiss food imports are growing faster than the population

Imported mineral water has been increasingly popular in Switzerland over the last 25 years. (Keystone) - Click to enlarge A government study shows that imports of food products have grown by 80% — three times faster than the Swiss population — between 1990 and 2016. In that time, the quantity of imported food consumed per inhabitant went from 344 kilograms to 490 kg. The figures, published Tuesday by the...

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Year-end Rate Hike Once Again Proves To Be Launchpad For Gold Price

Year-end rate hike once again proves to be launchpad for gold price – FOMC follows through on much anticipated rate-hike of 0.25%– Spot gold responds by heading for biggest gain in three weeks, rising by over 1%– Final meeting for Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen– Yellen does not expect Trump’s tax-cut package to result in significant, strong growth for US economy– No concern for bitcoin which ‘plays a very small...

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Defining The Economy Through Payrolls

The year 2000 was a transition year in a lot of ways. Though Y2K amounted to mild mass hysteria, people did have to get used to writing the date with 20 in front of the year rather than 19. It was a new millennium (depending on your view of Year 0) that seemed to have started off under the best possible terms. Not only were stocks on fire at the outset, the economy was, too. The idea of this “new economy” leading...

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