SNB & CHF

December’s US tax cuts – which saw corporate taxation reduced particularly sharply – are being echoed in signs that ‘animal spirits’ are finally kicking in. Both set the stage, in our view, for higher US growth, in large part driven by greater investment. We therefore upgrade our 2018 US growth forecast from 2.0% to 3.0%. We forecast that real non-residential investment growth will accelerate to 7.0% in 2018, up from an...

Around a quarter of Swiss workers are stressed and exhausted, according to new research. © Rawpixelimages | Dreamstime.com - Click to enlarge A three-year study by the University of Bern and Zurich University of Applied Sciences, which covers the period from 2014 to 2016, estimates that this stress and exhaustion cost Swiss companies between CHF 5 and CHF 5.8 billion a year. The cost of sick days is only the tip of...

The workers were sub-contracted and received about a third of a proper wage. (Keystone) - Click to enlarge A labour court in Geneva has ruled against a Polish subcontractor that underpaid its seconded employees working on a Geneva building site. The workers were earning €8 an hour, about a third of what the work warranted, the court said. The case has been ongoing for almost five years and was led by the...

In one of those rare turns, the term “globally synchronized growth” actually means what the words do. It is economic growth that for the first time in ten years has all the major economies of the world participating in it. It’s the kind of big idea that seems like a big thing we all should pay attention to. In The New York Times this weekend, we learn: A decade after the world descended into a devastating economic...

The ensuing social disunity and disruption will be of the sort many alive today have never seen. Social movements arise to solve problems of inequality, injustice, exploitation and oppression. In other words, they are solutions to society-wide problems plaguing the many but not the few (i.e. the elites at the top of the wealth-power pyramid). The basic assumption of social movements is that Utopia is within reach, if...

FOMC Strategy Revisited As readers know, investment and trading decisions can be optimized with the help of statistics. One way of doing so is offered by the FOMC meeting strategy. The rate hikes are actually leading somewhere – after the Wile E. Coyote moment, the FOMC meeting strategy is especially useful - Click to enlarge A study published by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York in 2011 examined the effect of...

Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.16% to 1.1587 CHF. EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, January 30(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates The US dollar is paring yesterday’s gains, and the 10-year Treasury yield has slipped back below the 2.70% level after pushing 2.73% briefly. European bonds have also eased, with yields one-two basis points lower. It is thus far a mild...

The flight from Geneva to Lugano is one of the most spectacular in Switzerland, but the economic reality is much less poetic. (RTS/swissinfo.ch) --- swissinfo.ch is the international branch of the Swiss Broadcasting Corporation (SBC). Its role is to report on Switzerland and to provide a Swiss perspective on international events. For more articles, interviews and videos visit swissinfo.ch or subscribe to our YouTube channel: Website: http://www.swissinfo.ch Channel:...

We do not like Purchasing Power or Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) as measurement for currencies. For us, the trade balance decides if a currency is overvalued. Only the trade balance can express productivity gains, while the REER assumes constant productivity in comparison to trade partners. Who has read Michael Pettis, knows that a rising trade surplus may also be caused by a higher savings rate while the trade...

In January, the KOF Economic Barometer does not continue its upward tendency, which started in September 2017, but has declined. However, despite the decline, the indicator remains well above its long-term average. It still indicates a more dynamic economic development than in mid-2017. The recovery of the Swiss economy is thus likely to continue, albeit with slightly less momentum than indicated in the past few...