Perspectives Pictet

Pictet Wealth Management’s latest positioning in fast-evolving markets.Asset allocationAs central bank support starts to be withdrawn, volatility could well rise.We are still slightly long equities, since fundamentals are supportive, but have bought put options on the S&P 500 to guard against downside risks. A rise in volatility will create opportunities for tactical trading and especially hedge funds.CommoditiesOil prices fell again in June, but now appear close to what we assess as the...

The latest non-farm payroll report is unlikely to make the Fed deviate from plans for policy normalisation.All in all, today’s employment report was healthy. In the end, job creation was actually quite robust overall in Q2, ‘aggregate weekly payrolls’ rose strongly q-o-q, and if unemployment rebounded a little in June, it was only because of higher participation, not a lack of employment growth. However, once again, wage data brought some disappointment, with average hourly earnings...

[embedded content] Published: Thursday July 06 2017Economic cycles have resynchronised, but this looks to be only a temporary phenomenon. Christophe Donay, Head of Asset Allocation and Macro Research at Pictet Wealth Management, discusses the implications for equity markets.

Economic cycles have resynchronised, but this looks to be only a temporary phenomenon. Christophe Donay, Head of Asset Allocation and Macro Research at Pictet Wealth Management, discusses the implications for equity markets.

June PMI surveys suggest that economic activity moderated only slightly in the last quarter, but we maintain our view the deceleration in Chinese growth will be more notable in the second half.China’s official manufacturing PMI rose to 51.7 in June, the second highest reading in 2017. The Markit manufacturing PMI also rebounded to 50.4 in June after having dropped below the 50 threshold in the previous month. The rise in both indices in June suggests that China’s growth momentum in the...

Published: Monday July 03 2017Stocks in businesses that provide security solutions in a wide variety of market sectors are proving to be an attractive investment theme with growth fuelled by innovation, urbanisation and regulation.When Pictet Asset Management launched the Security Fund ten years ago, the security market was not seen as a strong or growing one. But today the security industry is growing very fast, and expanding to cover many different market sectors.Security permeates our...

Just-released figures lead us to revise our forecasts for US spending and inflation.Real consumer spending increased by just 0.1% month-on-month in May. However, Q1 and April consumption figures were revised higher. The overall result was that between Q1 and April-May, US personal consumption grew by a strong 3.2% annualised. The strong bounce back in consumption growth expected has been confirmed, so that our forecast of 2.7% growth in consumer spending for Q2 overall now looks too low. We...

While core inflation was slightly stronger than expected in June, we believe it will rise only slowly for the rest of this year.Euro area ‘flash’ HICP inflation eased to 1.3% y-o-y in June (down from 1.4% in May) while core inflation increased to 1.1% (up from 0.9% in May). Both figures were slightly above consensus expectations, but our overall assessment is unchanged. The bottom line from the June inflation report is that the broad picture remains unchanged – we continue to expect euro...

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High yield bonds are vulnerable to a rise in spreads from their current low levels. Default levels could also rise for US high yield.US and euro high yield have performed strongly between Donald Trump’s election as US president and the end of June. However, our analysis of fair value suggests there is potential for a widening of spreads and a rise in default rates ahead.Our multi-factor model of high-yield corporate spreads enables us to forecast US and euro high-yield spread levels based on...