Perspectives Pictet

The BoJ is keeping its policies unchanged, and there is no change in our scenario regarding its future policy moves.In July’s monetary policy meeting, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) decided to keep its monetary easing programme unchanged, maintaining its qualitative and quantitative easing (QQE) with yield-curve control (YCC). In addition, the BoJ cut its inflation estimates for the current and next fiscal years, and revised its expectation for hitting its 2% target to one year later than the...

Published: Friday July 21 2017In the battle to protect the security of digital information, a Swiss company has used quantum mechanics to develop a new form of cryptography which makes decoding data impossible – even as computers become much faster.The increasing processing power of computers is making it easier for hackers to decipher encrypted information by finding the keys at the heart of traditional coding techniques. That task will become much easier when quantum computers arrive,...

The ECB made no change in its forward guidance at its July meeting. Our baseline scenario remains unchanged.At its July meeting, the ECB made no change in its monetary policy statement, as we expected. Importantly, the bias for QE extension “in terms of size and/or duration” was kept in the statement. ECB president Mario Draghi mentioned that the Governing Council (GC) was unanimous in communicating no change to forward guidance.Draghi reiterated that a very substantial degree of...

Extreme negative sentiment on the greenback and improving US data should pave the way for a significant US dollar rebound.Following disappointing US economic data and another failure to form a Republican majority on key legislation, the US dollar has slipped to a 10-month low, at 94.68 on 18 July.This extreme USD weakness has led to strong negative market sentiment, as highlighted by speculative positions on the futures market.Although we acknowledge that the foundations (rising inflation...

Chinese GDP higher than forecast in Q2; we expect 2017 GDP growth of 6.8%.Chinese GDP for Q2 2017 grew by 6.9% year-on-year (y-o-y) in real terms, the same pace of expansion as in Q1. The growth figure beats both the consensus forecast and our own estimate. We have decided to revise our Chinese GDP growth forecast for 2017 to 6.8% from 6.5%, and the forecast for 2018 to 6.3% from 6.2%. These revisions reflect both the stronger-than-expected growth in Q2 and a better outlook for the near term...

The latest Bank Lending Survey from the ECB showed that credit standards for loans to enterprises eased slightly in net terms in Q2. Our GDP growth forecast for the euro area remains unchanged. The July Bank Lending Survey (BLS), released by the ECB today, showed that bank credit standards for loans to enterprises eased slightly in Q2 2017, following a net easing in the previous quarter. This came despite expectations in the previous survey round that these standards would tighten...

Published: Monday July 17 2017Israeli entrepreneur Oren Yakobovich has created Videre est Credere, a human rights organisation which helps communities to film and document the violence and corruption they experience, and distributes the material to create change.From his childhood, Oren Yakobovich had always wanted to join the Israeli defence forces. His parents had immigrated to Israel in 1967, giving birth to him a few years later and bringing him up in a very patriotic house which...

日前重機騎士上國道爭取路權，引發正反兩極的論戰，似乎造成負面的後續效應，之前才有汽車駕駛在大馬路上，對著重機逼車，最近一台黑色名車，直接在88號快速道路上，對重機騎士緊追逼車，不斷變換車道，看起來相當危險。

Published: 12th July 2017Download issue:English /Français /Deutsch /Español /ItalianoRisk assets showed a considerable loss of momentum in the second quarter. Annualised rises of over 50% on the S&P500 for much of the first quarter declined to 5% in the second. The reason was the fading of any belief in the reflation trade that the election of Donald Trump was meant to foster via tax cuts and infrastructure spending. There has also been a palpable loss of momentum in European markets as...

Although close to the end of a long-term up-cycle, the dollar has the potential to recover ground lost recently given the outlook for Fed rate rises and balance sheet reduction.Our latest forecasts for major currencies over the coming months can be summarised as follows:US dollar. In terms of duration and valuation, the USD up-cycle is likely close to ending. However, the USD is likely to remain strong on the back of robust US growth and the outlook for inflation. It should also benefit from...