SNB & CHF

Summary: BOJ is unlikely to change policy. A snap election suggests continuity of policy. US 10-year yield remains one of most important drivers of the exchange rate. There is practically no chance that the BOJ changes policy. BOJ shares the common dilemma among major central banks. Growth is ok–above trend, which in Japan is seen as about 0.8%, but price pressures remain weak. The core rate in Japan, which...

Recapitulation (Part XVI, the Last) Since the announcement of demonetization of Indian currency on 8th November 2016, I have written a large number of articles. The issue is not so much that the Indian Prime Minister, Narendra Modi, is a tyrant and extremely simplistic in his thinking (which he is), or that demonetization and the new sales tax system were horribly ill-conceived (which they were). Time erases all...

“Like watching paint dry,” is how The Fed describes the beginning of the end of its experiment with massively inflating its balance sheet to save the world. As former fund manager Richard Breslow notes, however, Yellen’s decision today means the risk-suppression boot is on the other foot (or feet) of The SNB, The ECB, and The BoJ; as he writes, “have no fear, The SNB knows what it’s doing.” As we reported previously, In...

Manufacturing has picked up, but not overall growth. (Keystone) Swiss economic growth estimates for the year have been revised down to under 1% by the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO). This would make it the slowest year since 2009. The stats released Thursday predict a growth rate of 0.9% for 2017. The figure has fallen from previous estimates of 1.4%, and would mark the worst-performing economic year...

– £1 trillion crisis looms as pensions deficit and consumer loans snowball out of control– UK pensions deficit soared by £100B to £710B, last month– £200B unsecured consumer credit “time bomb” warn FCA– 8.3 million people in UK with debt problems– 2.2 million people in UK are in financial distress– ‘President Trump land’ there is a savings gap of $70 trillion– Global problem as pensions gap of developed countries...

The University of Michigan reports that consumer confidence in September slipped a little from August. Their Index of Consumer Sentiment registered 95.3 in the latest month, down from 96.8 in the prior one. Both of those readings are in line with confidence estimates going back to early 2014 when consumer sentiment supposedly surged. University of Michigan Consumer Confidence, Jan 1997 - 2017(see more posts on...

In late August 2006, ABC News asked more than a dozen prominent economists to evaluate the impacts of hurricane Katrina on the US economy. The cataclysmic storm made landfall on August 29, 2005, devastating the city of New Orleans and the surrounding Gulf coast. The cost in human terms was unthinkable, and many were concerned, as people always are, that in economic terms the country might end up in similar...

Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.05% to 1.1595 CHF. EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, September 22(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates The cycle of sanctions, recriminations, and provocative actives continues as the Trump Administration leads a confrontation with North Korea. The US announced yesterday new round of sanctions on North Korea. Reuters reported that the...

While there are several comments one can make here, “dirty money”, “flush with cash” and “flushing money down the toilet” certainly coming to mind, perhaps the ECB was on to something when it warned that €500 “Bin Laden” bills (which it has since discontinued to print) tend to be used by criminals. The reason for this is that in recent weeks, Swiss prosecutors have been gripped by a mystery, trying to figure out why...

There will be an irresistible urge to the make this about the weather, but more and more data shows it’s not any singular instance. Nor is it transitory. What does prove to be temporary time and again is the upside. The economy gets hit (by “dollar” events), bounces back a little, and then goes right back into the dumps. This, it seems, is the limited extent of cyclicality in these times. Retail sales were again very...