SNB & CHF

There seems to be an intense if at times acrimonious debate raging inside the Federal Reserve right now. The differences go down to its very core philosophies. Just over a week ago, Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer abruptly resigned from the Board of Governors even though many believed he was a possible candidate to replace Chairman Yellen at the end of her term next year. His letter of resignation only cited “personal...

A week ago we tweeted… Dear @SNB_BNS_en – you are the next bitcoin: congratulations pic.twitter.com/cld4YNbNLb — zerohedge (@zerohedge) September 14, 2017 But as Bitcoin rebounded from its China challenges, it overtook The SNB once again as bubbliest bubble. However, a 13% spike in the share price of The Swiss National Bank today has put an end to that leaving the central bank back in first place among the...

Economic forecasts by the Federal Government’s Expert Group – autumn 2017* – Because of the weak performance in the first half of the year, the Federal Government’s Expert Group anticipates only moderate GDP growth of 0.9% in 2017. Over the coming quarters, though, solid momentum in the global economy is set to support the export sector, while the domestic sector is also expected to gather pace. Sizeable GDP growth of...

A day after Bridgewater Associates Founder Ray Dalio claimed that bitcoin was “definitely in a bubble” partly because he said the digital currency was too difficult to spend, CoinTelegraph is reporting that the first-ever bitcoin-only real-estate transaction has been completed in Texas. The transaction “illustrates crypto’s potential to transform how financial transactions are conducted,” according to Futurism.com. The...

We do not like Purchasing Power or Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) as measurement for currencies. For us, the trade balance decides if a currency is overvalued. Only the trade balance can express productivity gains, while the REER assumes constant productivity in comparison to trade partners. Who has read Michael Pettis, knows that a rising trade surplus may also be caused by a higher savings rate while the trade...

Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.17% to 1.1477 CHF. EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, September 21(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates The market has mostly interpreted the Fed’s action in line with our thinking. Despite the lowering of the long-run Fed funds rate, the shifting one of the three hikes from 2019 into 2020, and recognizing that the weaker price impulses...

In an extensive, must-read report published on Monday by Deutsche Bank’s Jim Reid, the credit strategist unveiled an extensive analysis of the “Next Financial Crisis”, and specifically what may cause it, when it may happen, and how the world could respond assuming it still has means to counteract the next economic and financial crash.In our first take on the report yesterday, we showed one key aspect of the “crash”...

 All the way back in January I calculated the total size of China’s 2016 fiscal “stimulus.” Starting in January 2016, authorities conducted what was an enormous spending program. As it had twice before, the government directed increased “investment” from State-owned Enterprises (SOE).By my back-of-the-envelope numbers, the scale of this fiscal side program was about RMB 1.45 trillion, or nearly 2% of GDP. It was about...

In confirmation that Theresa May’s upcoming Florence speech this Friday is not only what many have called “the most important day for Brexit since the referendum”, but also the most opaque, the Telegraph reports that UK Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson will resign as before the weekend if Theresa May veers towards a “Swiss-style” arrangement with the EU in her upcoming speech. The Foreign Secretary believes he will have...

Les dépôts bancaires servent de base à l’activité bancaire classique. Réserves fractionnaires et autres créations monétaires bancaires privées vont prendre appui dessus. Qu’une part importante des clients retire ses dépôts et la banque s’écroule. Il est donc indispensable qu’on y touche le moins possible, spécialement quand votre confiance s’évapore…. Cela explique pourquoi, les « autorités » de toutes sortes légifèrent...