Tag Archives: Federal Reserve

Since the Federal Reserve hiked rates in December, both the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan have eased policy further.  The idea that because they cut rates means that the Fed cannot raise rates is a not a particularly helpful way to think about that is happening.   The market attributes practically no chance for a Fed hike today.  But the FOMC is expected not to back off very much from its view that contrary to what some have argued, the December rate hike was not a mistake,...

As we predicted over a year ago, in a world in which QE has failed, and in which the ice-cold grip of NIRP has to be global in order to achieve its intended purpose of forcing savers around the world to spend the taxed product of their labor, one thing has to be abolished: cash. This explains the recent flurry of articles in outlets such as BBG and the FT, and op-eds by such "established" economists as Larry Summers, all advocating the death of cash, a process which would begin by...

As we predicted over a year ago, in a world in which QE has failed, and in which the ice-cold grip of NIRP has to be global in order to achieve its intended purpose of forcing savers around the world to spend the taxed product of their labor, one thing has to be abolished: cash. This explains the recent flurry of articles in outlets such as BBG and the FT, and op-eds by such "established" economists as Larry Summers, all advocating the death of cash, a process which would begin by...

Today’s retail sales report was reassuring. We remain sanguine on consumption growth in 2016. Unsurprisingly, Fed Chair Yellen acknowledged the downside risks to the growth outlook but did not rule out a hike in March. Nominal total retail sales rose by 0.2% m-o-m in January, slightly above consensus expectations (+0.1%). Moreover, December’s number was revised up from -0.1% to +0.2%. Total sales were dented by a 3.1% m-o-m fall in nominal sales at gasoline stations (on the back of lower...

Published: 12th February 2016 Download issue: A turbulent start to a volatile year Global markets had a very difficult start to 2016, with equity markets experiencing one of the largest January falls in history, currency markets also seeing major disruption, and a sharp widening of spreads on high yield corporate bonds. By the end of the month, though, there were signs that a rebound was underway. Although the magnitude of the sell-off was clearly a concern, these developments are not out...

Quarterly wage data (ECI) for Q4 pointed to modest increases with no apparent pick-up in wage inflation. Although the January FOMC statement was not so dovish, we continue to believe the Fed will remain on hold in March. Besides GDP data, today saw some other key data being published: the quarterly Employment Cost Index (ECI), admittedly the most reliable measure of wages and salaries. Following Wednesday’s less-dovish-than-hoped FOMC statement, prolonged uncertainty over inflation...

As soon as the Federal Reserve hiked interest rates in December 2015, market participants wanted to know how soon they’d do it again. After January served up negative economic surprises and volatility in global financial markets, the Fed held its fire at its January 27 meeting. While a March hike seemed plausible just a month ago, Credit Suisse economists say the odds of a first-quarter rate increase have fallen south of 50 percent. June is now the most likely date for the next hike.  ...

Macroview The Fed no longer considers that the risks to the outlook are ‘balanced’. However, yesterday's statement was not particularly dovish. After its meeting earlier this week, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) published a statement where, as widely expected, it acknowledged that “economic growth slowed late last year”. It also added a comment that “the Committee is closely monitoring global economic and financial developments and is assessing their implications for the labor...

On Wednesday Dec 16, Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen announced that the Fed was raising the federal funds rate by 25 basis points. Let’s get one thing out of the way. This is not a move towards free markets. Whether the Fed sets interest lower, or whether it sets interest higher, we still have central planning. We still have price fixing of interest rates. Interest rates may be set too low. However, forcing interest up is no cure. We need to eliminate central planning, and move to a free...

Enough talk already. The moment is finally here: The Federal Reserve raised interest rates today by 0.25 percent for the first time since June 2006. Credit Suisse doesn’t believe the small, well-anticipated hike will hurt the U.S. economy in and of itself. (What happens in rate-sensitive markets, especially high-yield bonds, is another story, and one that The Financialist will cover in the coming days.) More important to financial markets are the signals Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen...