Tag Archives: Federal Reserve

The FOMC delivered a statement largely as expected.  It upgraded its assessment of the global economy by dropping the reference to risks.  It downgraded its assessment of the domestic economy by acknowledging that growth has slowed. Otherwise is general economic assessment remains little changed.  The labor market continues to improve, though growth in household spending has slowed.  Housing is stronger though fixed business investment and net exports have been soft (though not as soft as...

We expect the FOMC statement this week to recognize the improvement in the global conditions that have been an increasing worry for officials over Q1.  At the same, time the soft patch of the US economy is undeniable. We suspect the Fed will look past the weakness of the US economy. The strength of the labor market, with weekly initial jobless claims at their lowest level since 1973 and continuing claims at their lowest level since 2000, it is difficult to get too negative the US...

The global economy struggled through a difficult year in 2015, leaving a range of challenges for policymakers hoping to avoid a third leg of the financial crisis, panelists at the Credit Suisse 2016 Asian Investment Conference (AIC) said.   The Federal Reserve’s moderation in monetary tightening is crucial to sustaining fragile global economic growth in 2016, while structural reforms in China, India, and other countries are essential if struggling emerging economies are to regain their...

Politicians around the world are working hard to build this emerging prison planet. But it’s still possible to escape. We recently released a video to show you how. Click here to watch it now. If you’ve never heard of the Foreign Account Tax Compliance Act (FATCA), you’re not alone. Few people have, and even fewer fully grasp the terrible things it foreshadows. FATCA is a U.S. law that forces every financial institution in the world to give the IRS information about its American...

With oil losing some of its euphoric oomph overnight, following the API report of a surge in US oil inventories, and a subsequent report that Iran's oil minister would skip the Doha OPEC meeting altogether, the global stock rally needed another catalyst to maintain the levitation. It got that courtesy of the return of USDJPY levitation, which has pushed the pair back above 109, the highest in over a week, as well as a boost in sentiment from the previously reported Chinese trade data where...

In his blog, Ben Bernanke discusses the merits of “helicopter drops” as a monetary policy tool. [A] “helicopter drop” of money is an expansionary fiscal policy—an increase in public spending or a tax cut—financed by a permanent increase in the money stock. … the Fed credits the Treasury … in the Treasury’s “checking account” at the central bank, and those funds are used to pay for the new spending and the tax rebate. … it should influence the economy through a number of channels, making it...

This Great Graphic shows the results of the last three Wall Street Journal survey of business and academic economists on the outlook for Fed policy. The key take away is that despite all the talk and ink spilled on the shifting Fed stance and the split within the FOMC, economists views did not change much over the past month. In March, 76% of the economists expected the next hike in June.  In the April survey that was completed earlier this week found 75% expect a June hike.  Only one...

I attended a panel discussion on private blockchains in banking at UBS in NYC last night. There were two overarching misconceptions that appeared to permeate the discussions: Counterparties can be trusted, hence you can build reliable systems with trusted parties, and; Capital markets are, and always will be predicated upon the legacy, highly centralized hub and spoke model that we know today. Basically, the influential gatekeepers that control access to a centralized, authoritative...

In his blog, Ben Bernanke discusses the merits of longer-term interest rate targeting as a monetary policy tool. A lot would depend on the credibility of the Fed’s announcement. If investors do not believe that the Fed will be successful at pushing down the two-year rate … they will immediately sell their securities of two years’ maturity or less to the Fed. … the Fed could end up owning most or all of the eligible securities, with uncertain consequences for interest rates overall. On the...

Even in the fast-changing world of foreign exchange, investors have been able to count on one thing for the last two years – that the interest rate policies of central banks would be the primary driver of currency movements. The so-called divergence trade hinged on the Federal Reserve’s tightening bias relative to the easing bias of the European Central Bank and Bank of Japan and was a fairly reliable organizing principle for foreign-exchange investors. On a trade-weighted basis, the...