Tag Archives: Federal Reserve

Is immigration why employment reports from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) continue defying mainstream economists’ estimates? Many are asking this question as the U.S. experiences a flood of immigrants across the southern border. Concurrently, many young college graduates continue to complain about the inability to receive a job offer. As noted recently by CNBC: The job market looks solid on paper. According to government data, U.S. employers added 2.7...

With the last half of March upon us, the blackout of stock buybacks threatens to reduce one of the liquidity sources supporting the bullish run this year. If you don’t understand the importance of corporate share buybacks and the blackout periods, here is a snippet of a 2023 article I previously wrote. “The chart below via Pavilion Global Markets shows the impact stock buybacks have had on the market over the last decade. The decomposition of returns for the...

Over the last few years, digital currencies and gold have become decent barometers of speculative investor appetite. Such isn’t surprising given the evolution of the market into a “casino” following the pandemic, where retail traders have increased their speculative appetites. “Such is unsurprising, given that retail investors often fall victim to the psychological behavior of the “fear of missing out.” The chart below shows the “dumb money index” versus the S&P...

Presidential elections and market corrections have a long history of companionship. Given the rampant rhetoric between the right and left, such is not surprising. Such is particularly the case over the last two Presidential elections, where polarizing candidates trumped policies. From a portfolio management perspective, we must understand what happens during election years concerning the stock market and investor returns. Since 1833, the S&P 500 index has...

Overview: US markets are closed for President's Day, while China's markets re-opened from the long Lunar New Year holiday. Mainland stocks advanced, while the yuan slipped slightly. The US dollar is mostly softer but in narrow ranges. The Antipodeans and yen lead, while the Swiss franc the only G10 currency that is slightly softer. Most emerging market currencies are lower, led by about a 0.5% loss of the South African rand. The Mexican peso's and South Korean won's...

Regarding the surprisingly strong employment data, Fed Chair Powell said the quiet part out loud. The media hopes you didn’t hear it as we head into a contentious election in November. Over the last several months, we have seen repeated employment reports from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) that crushed economists’ estimates and seemed to defy logic. Such is particularly the case when you read commentary about the state of the average American as follows. “New...

Share this article The New Year is usually associated with a new beginning, a fresh start, or a “clean slate”. Unfortunately, for millions of Americans, these are wishes that are bound to remain unfulfilled – for them, the New Year has nothing “new” to offer at all: it will only perpetuate all the same burdens, obligations and worries of the past year and of the ones that came before. One physical, practical manifestation of this (though it is certainly not a unique, or even a rare,...

The New Year is usually associated with a new beginning, a fresh start, or a “clean slate”. Unfortunately, for millions of Americans, these are wishes that are bound to remain unfulfilled – for them, the New Year has nothing “new” to offer at all: it will only perpetuate all the same burdens, obligations and worries of the past year and of the ones that came before. One physical, practical manifestation of this (though it is certainly not a unique, or even a rare,...

Overview: The US dollar is enjoying a mostly firmer bias ahead of today's CPI report. Sterling is the strongest among the G10 currencies after a more resilient than expected labor market report. The dollar extended its gains against the Japanese yen to a new high since last November, but the market seems cautious as it approaches JPY150, where large options expire today. On the other hand, emerging market currencies are mostly faring better. The Mexican peso and...

Part II of II by Claudio Grass, Hünenberg See, Switzerland This is precisely what the State is doing. The idea of war, mayhem and destruction being economic boosters is exactly what has supported the thin facade that politicians like to place over their greed and their personal gain that they derive from the military industrial complex. “It’s good for the country”, is certainly easier to sell than “it’s good for me and my reelection campaign”. The taxpayer will not see...