Tag Archives: 5.) Brown Brothers Harriman

Covid vaccine results from AstraZeneca and Oxford University brought another wave of optimism; dollar weakness has resumed; that said, we will refrain from making any longer-term calls for the demise of the dollar Reports suggest President-elect Biden is pushing House Democrats to reduce the size of their fiscal package demands to unlock negotiations; Republicans have an interest in compromising President-elect Biden has reportedly picked his diplomatic team; it’s a...

Most EM currencies were up last week, once again taking advantage of broad dollar weakness. In addition, EM equities also performed well, with MSCI EM up for the third week in a row and for seven of the past eight. We expect EM assets to continue benefiting from the global liquidity story as well as the weak dollar trend. AMERICAS Brazil reports mid-November IPCA inflation Tuesday. Inflation is expected at 4.15% y/y vs. 3.52% in mid-October. If so, this would be the...

The negative virus news stream is taking a toll on market sentiment; the dollar is benefiting from the risk-off price action but is likely to fade Weekly jobless claims data will be of interest; Fed manufacturing surveys for November will continue to roll out; Judy Shelton’s Fed confirmation is looking less and less likely The row about EU funding takes center stage today as leaders hold a conference call to iron out their differences; UK CBI November industrial...

We expect the Turkish central bank (CBRT) to deliver a substantial rate hike at Thursday’s meeting but not as aggressive as consensus. Bloomberg’s median expectation is for a 475 bp hike. Our call is for a somewhat less aggressive move (perhaps around 400 bp) because the recent price action is likely to afford the new CBRT administration the confidence not to have to surprise on the upside. We think this makes sense. A large enough move to reaffirm the change of...

The dollar continues to soften October retail sales will be the US data highlight; Fed manufacturing surveys for November have started to roll out; Republican Senator Alexander opposes Judy Shelton’s nomination to the Fed Newswires reported (again) that a Brexit deal is at hand; Hungary and Poland will veto the EU budget and recovery fund; ECB signaled that they are focused on asset purchases and long-term funding for the next round of stimulus; Hungary is expected...

The odds of national-level action in the US against the second wave virus outbreak remains small, even after Biden takes over; the dollar continues to soften There is growing speculation about former Fed Chair Yellen becoming Biden’s Treasury Secretary; Fed manufacturing surveys for November will start to roll out; Peru’s interim President Merino resigned under pressure from more demonstrations Several UK MPs and Prime Minister Johnson were forced to isolate due to a...

We see significant upside risk for global trade coming from “top down” forces (such as politics), but at the same time we expect the undercurrent reconfiguring many of the existing relationships to intensify. The “Peak Globalization” narrative (at least regarding trade) is being challenged by hopes of a revival of multilateral cooperation under Biden and the latest Asian trade agreement. But this doesn’t change our long-term view that the US and China are in an...

The virus numbers in the US show no signs of slowing; the dollar should continue to soften October retail sales Tuesday will be the US data highlight for the week; Fed manufacturing surveys for November will start to roll out; the Senate will hold a procedural vote this week to advance Judy Shelton’s nomination to the Fed Board of Governors Canada has an important data week; Brexit talks will (hopefully) wind up soon; UK reports key data Japan and Australia have...

Pressure on the dollar has resumed; October CPI data will be the US highlight; US bond market was closed yesterday but yields have eased a bit today Weekly jobless claims data will be reported; monthly budget statement for October will hold some interest; Mexico is expected to cut rates 25 bp to 4.0%; Peru is expected to keep rates steady at 0.25% UK Q3 GDP rebounded strongly but September data show a loss of momentum; Brexit talks remain unresolved; the domestic...

Despite rising infections worldwide, the virus news stream has turned positive; the dollar is consolidating its gains today With the 10-year yield rising to near 1.0%, US financial conditions are tightening; the Fed released its Financial Stability report yesterday and it pulled no punches; with the Fed media embargo over, many officials will speak today UK House of Lords altered the Internal Market Bill; UK employment numbers were slightly better than expected;...