by It appears nothing can stop the upward moment of equities heading into the year end, and as has been the case for the past few weeks, US traders walk in with futures higher, propelled by European stocks which climbed to their highest in almost a year, while the dollar rose and bonds and gold fell, failing again to respond to a series of geopolitical shocks following terrorist attacks in Ankara, Berlin and Zurich. The yen tumbled after the Bank of Japan maintained its stimulus plan even as the central bank touted improving economic prospects for the Japanese economy. "There was no particular surprise from the policy meeting, but investors are happy that the economy's fundamentals are finally rising after the BOJ expressed an upbeat view," said Takuya Takahashi, a strategist at Daiwa Securities. In an amusing interlude during today's Kuroda press conference, in which the BOJ head said the BOJ is far from its target, Kuroda said that the BOJ continues to target 10 Year yield at "about 0%" and then added that it is meaningless to try to discuss "what about 0%" is, hinting to markets that as long as US yields keep rising, the Yen will keep falling. European shares were steady with unease over the attacks balanced by gains by bank shares and the Milan market after Italy's government said it wanted approval for up to €20 billion to rescue troubled lenders.
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It appears nothing can stop the upward moment of equities heading into the year end, and as has been the case for the past few weeks, US traders walk in with futures higher, propelled by European stocks which climbed to their highest in almost a year, while the dollar rose and bonds and gold fell, failing again to respond to a series of geopolitical shocks following terrorist attacks in Ankara, Berlin and Zurich. The yen tumbled after the Bank of Japan maintained its stimulus plan even as the central bank touted improving economic prospects for the Japanese economy.
"There was no particular surprise from the policy meeting, but investors are happy that the economy's fundamentals are finally rising after the BOJ expressed an upbeat view," said Takuya Takahashi, a strategist at Daiwa Securities.
In an amusing interlude during today's Kuroda press conference, in which the BOJ head said the BOJ is far from its target, Kuroda said that the BOJ continues to target 10 Year yield at "about 0%" and then added that it is meaningless to try to discuss "what about 0%" is, hinting to markets that as long as US yields keep rising, the Yen will keep falling.
European shares were steady with unease over the attacks balanced by gains by bank shares and the Milan market after Italy's government said it wanted approval for up to €20 billion to rescue troubled lenders. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index rose 0.1% to 360, pushed higher by deal activity in media and credit card services. Treasuries and gold reversed gains from Monday following a probable terror attack in Berlin, while Turkey’s lira pared losses sustained after the killing of Russia’s envoy to the country. The yen approached the weakest since February, rising above 118 versus the dollar after the central bank closed a tumultuous year for monetary policy by keeping its yield-curve and asset-purchase programs unchanged.
The dollar and rising bond yields again dominated, after Janet Yellen flagged the strength of the U.S. jobs market in a speech to students on Monday. That sent the greenback bouncing towards last week's 14-year high and it was at 103.40 on the index that measures it against other leading currencies, just short of its recent peak of 103.56.
"The biggest impact you see from the attacks in Berlin and Istanbul is the Swiss franc/euro," said Societe Generale FX strategist Alvin Tan. "But apart from that the dollar continues to be strong after we had some rather positive comments from Janet Yellen,"
China's CSI 300 index slid 0.6 percent, on Beijing's move to tighten supervision of shadow banking activities and on liquidity concerns, while Japan's Nikkei .N225 closed up 0.5 percent after the BOJ meeting.
U.S. stock-index futures were also fractionally higher following a rally that sent equities to record levels. S&P 500 futures expiring in March up 0.1 percent to 2,263 at 6:03 a.m. in New York, while those on the Dow rise 24 points to 19,861. VIX dropped for fourth day, set for lowest close since August.
Energy markets were trading at session highs, with Brent rising above $55/bbl before U.S. stockpiles data due Tuesday, Wednesday. DOE inventories data to be published on Wednesday are forecast to show 5th week of reductions. January WTI near $52/bbl before expiry. “We’re moving sideways as a whole, liquidity is lower at the moment,” said Giovanni Staunovo, commodity analyst at UBS in Zurich. “It’s range-trading still.”
The yield on U.S. 10-year Treasuries climbed four basis points to 2.58 percent, while gold slid 0.5 percent.
The most notable feature of overnight trading, according to Bloomberg, is the remarkable immunity demonstrated by markets to terror incidents this year, with initial knee-jerk reactions to buy haven assets after attacks fading quickly.
“The market response to each new terror event is less and less pronounced,” said Mike van Dulken, head of research at Accendo Markets. The move in European stocks “confirms ever-thickening investor skin.”
That said, with trading volumes decreasing before December holidays and year-end, investors may be loath to veer too far from the underlying market trends that have prevailed since the election of Donald Trump in November, namely favoring stocks and shunning bonds.
Bulletin headline summary from RanSquawk
- In a similar fashion to yesterday, European equities trade with little in the way of firm direction as newsflow remains light after the BoJ kept policy on hold
- Very quiet in the FX markets today, but the USD has received yet another push as North American players responded to comments from Fed chair Yellen
- Looking ahead, highlights include Turkish Rate Decision, Fonterra GDT auction as well as earnings from Nike and General Mills
Markets Snapshot
- S&P 500 futures up 0.1% to 2263
- Stoxx Europe 600 up 0.1% to 360.0
- MSCI Asia Pacific down 0.5% to 135.27
- Nikkei 225 up 0.5% to 19,494.53
- US 10Yr yield up 4 bps to 2.58%
- Dollar index up 0.2% to 103.38
- WTI oil futures up 0.1% to $52.17/bbl
- Brent crude up 0.1% to $54.99/bbl
- Gold spot down 0.4% to $1133.69/oz
- German 10yr yield up 3bps to 0.28%
- Portuguese 10yr yield up 5bps to 3.81%
- Italian 10yr yield up 6bps to 1.88%
- iTraxx Main down 0.3bps to 70.88
- iTraxx Crossover up 0.5bps to 290.36
- Euro spot down 0.17% to 1.0384
- Yen spot -0.7% to 117.90
- Copper down 0.06% to $5492/MT
Looking at Asian stocks, markets traded mixed despite a positive lead from Wall St where telecoms outperformed and sentiment was supported by hopes a Santa rally would push the Dow above 20,000. ASX 200 (+0.5%) took the impetus from US and was underpinned higher by miners after gold recouped some of the 2% declines it suffered last week. Nikkei 225 (+0.5%) shrugged-off early cautiousness as a weaker JPY post-BoJ kept the index afloat, while Hang Seng (-0.5%) and Shanghai Comp. (-0.5%) traded subdued as a firm CNY 250b1n liquidity injection by the PBoC was overshadowed by reports that China may tighten licensing procedures for insurance firms and could also increase financial and asset requirements for shareholders. 10yr JGBs traded higher with support seen following the BoJ policy decision to maintain the 10yr JGB yield target at around 0% as this raises speculation the BoJ could continue restricting rapid advances in yields as seen last week. However, prices then pulled back, while the yield curve also steepened amid underperformance in the super-long end.
The BOJ kept its bank rate unchanged at -0.1% as expected and maintained its target for the 10yr JGB yield at around 0%. The decision to maintain policy was conducted by 7-2 vote with Sato and Kiuchi as the dissenters, while the BoJ also raised its economic assessment for the 1st time in 18 months as it stated that the economy is likely to turn to a moderate expansion. RBA minutes from December 6th meeting stated that reducing rates further could carry risks for debt that outweighed any economic benefit but also added that domestic data has not been that encouraging.
In Europe, equities continue to trade flat on the session with muted price action across the board. On a sector specific basis, defensive sectors outperform in the form of Healthcare names while materials are the notable laggards. Mediaset (17%) continue their recent ramp, with Vivendi continuing to grow their stake in the Co. and stating they are looking to increase to 30%. Fixed income markets have seen similarly muted trade, with bunds marginally lower on the day, however remaining above the 163.00 level. Periphery spreads are marginally wider against the German benchmark for the most part amid the thin liquidity, with Italy continuing to remain in focus after the government took the first step for a bailout of their banking system.
In currencies, FX markets are very quiet but the USD has received yet another push as North American players responded to comments from Fed chair Yellen on the strength of the US labour market. USD/JPY has recovered back onto a 118.00 handle, but along with EUR/USD under 1.0400, we are seeing a severe lack of momentum in the market. This is not deterring USD bulls, who remain vulnerable to a short squeeze, but against GBP, we are seeing another push on the mid 1.2300's as EUR/GBP gets a fresh bid through .8400. Into year end, we have to expect some Euro based buying here. The commodity currencies are also under pressure against the greenback, with AUD looking to .7200, NZD sub .6900 and USD/CAD shaping up for a retest on the resilient 1.3500-1.3600 area. Only one trade in town at the moment and that is to buy USD dips, but proving strained at the present time despite the offered tone in USTs.
Looking at the day ahead, this morning in Europe we kicked off with German November PPI data came in at 0.1%, hotter than the -0.2% expected, and well above the -0.4% print in October. There’s no data due out in the US although later today though we are due to get China’s Conference Board leading economic index for November. It’s fairly quiet away from the data too although it’ll be worth keeping an eye on events in the UK where PM Theresa May is due to be questioned by the House of Commons Liaison Committee about her plans for leaving the EU, amongst other things
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DB concludes the overnight wrap
Sadly our final recap of the year is tainted by the sombre events in Germany, Turkey and Switzerland yesterday. The news of the assassination of Russia’s ambassador in Ankara came as Turkey and Russia were striving to rebuild their relationship over the conflict in Syria however the incident will now have the potential to reignite tensions again in the region. Meanwhile in Germany investigations are underway after a truck drove into a number of innocent bystanders at a Christmas market in Berlin. In Zurich three men have also been seriously injured following a shooting in an Islamic centre near the city’s main station. These events come after geopolitical concerns were already coming back into the spotlight following the seizure of a US drone in the South China Sea last week.
The biggest impact in markets from the events was in FX where the Turkish Lira (-0.75%) in particular underperformed, along with a number of other EM currencies. The MSCI EM equity index also closed -0.62% and so declining for the fourth consecutive session. In developed markets the feeling was generally cautious but resilient. The Stoxx 600 (-0.12%) closed a touch lower while the S&P 500 (+0.20%) edged slightly higher although unsurprisingly on seasonally thin trading volumes. The most interesting price action continues to be in sovereign bond markets. 10y Bund yields closed 6.9bps lower yesterday at 0.241% and have now moved up or down by at least 3.3bps for each of the last six sessions. 10y Treasury yields also dipped 5.3bps lower to close at 2.539%. While there was some suggestion that the moves reflected safe haven flows it appears that the blame was more last minute position clearing into year-end than anything else.
Before we go any further, this morning in Asia the focus has turned over to the BoJ meeting outcome. As expected there were no last minute holiday season surprises with the various policy measures all kept as is. Significantly, that also means that the BoJ will continue with its yield curve control policy which means targeting 10y JGB yields around zero percent. Where the BoJ was a bit more upbeat however was on its assessment of the economy. The BoJ now expects Japan’s economy to “turn to a moderate expansion” following a pickup in exports, improved domestic demand and business sentiment. Inflation forecasts are however expected to continue to be benign while the BoJ also pointed towards the risks to the outlook as including developments in EM and commodity exporting economics, developments in the US economy, Brexit and geopolitical risks. Governor Kuroda is scheduled to speak just after we go to print.
The Yen has weakened -0.40% following that while Japanese equity markets have rebounded following early modest losses. The Nikkei and Topix are currently +0.46% and +0.14% respectively. 10y JGB yields are also 0.6bps lower at 0.061% after touching a high of 0.090% last week. As we’ve highlighted a few times, it’ll be interesting to see how much the yield cap gets tested by the market next year. Elsewhere in Asia it’s a bit more mixed. The Hang Seng (-0.32%) and Shanghai Comp (-0.52%) are both in the red although the Kospi (+0.23%) and ASX (+0.43%) have both edged higher. US equity index futures are little changed meanwhile along with Gold and most of the commodity complex.
Moving on. The Italian banking sector was also back in the spotlight again yesterday following the news that the Italian government has asked Parliament to authorise up to €20bn through increasing public debt to rescue the nation’s ailing banks. Expect this story to rumble on today.
Elsewhere, Fed Chair Yellen also spoke yesterday at the University of Baltimore. However, as we were expecting there wasn’t a huge amount of new information. Speaking primarily on the labour market, Yellen said that “after years of a slow economic recovery, you are entering the strongest job market in nearly a decade” and that “there are also indicators that wage growth is picking up, and weekly earnings for younger workers have made strong gains over the past couple of years”.
There was also a bit of data to highlight yesterday. In the US we got the flash services PMI for December which came in weaker than expected at 53.4 (vs. 55.2 expected and 54.6 in the month prior). Combined with the manufacturing print from last week, that leaves the flash composite reading at 53.7 which is down 1.2pts from November. Elsewhere, in Germany the December IFO business climate index printed at 111.0 (vs. 110.6 expected) which is up 0.6pts from last month. The current assessment reading was reported as rising 1pt to 116.6 while the expectations component was little changed around 105.6.
Looking at the day ahead, this morning in Europe we’re kicking off in Germany where the November PPI data will be released followed thereafter by the UK’s CBI distributive trends survey for this month. There’s no data due out in the US although later this afternoon we are due to get China’s Conference Board leading economic index for November. It’s fairly quiet away from the data too although it’ll be worth keeping an eye on events in the UK where PM Theresa May is due to be questioned by the House of Commons Liaison Committee about her plans for leaving the EU, amongst other things.
