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Tag Archives: Japan

FX Daily, October 1: Hope Springs Eternal

Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.10% to 1.0779 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, October 1(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: Speculation that a new round of fiscal stimulus from the US is possible is encouraging risk-taking today.  Many large Asian centers were closed for holidays today, and a technical problem prevented the Tokyo Stock Exchange from opening. Nevertheless, the markets that were open rose by...

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FX Daily, September 24: Darkest Before Dawn

Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.07% to 1.0779 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, September 24(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: The two recent market developments, push lower in stocks, and higher in the dollar is continuing. Tuesday’s gains in the S&P 500 and NASDAQ were unwound on Wednesday and this is helping drag global markets lower. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell for the fourth consecutive...

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Uh Oh, The Dollar Has Caught A Bid

Anyone who follows Alhambra knows that we keep an eye on the dollar. It is a very important part of our process of identifying the economic environment. A rising dollar, when combined with a falling rate of growth, can be a lethal combination. That was the situation in March and of course during the financial crisis of 2008. So the recent rally is something that has got our attention. For now, though, we don’t see any significant stresses in the system that would...

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Reopening Inertia, Asian Dollar Style (Still Waiting On The Crash)

Why are there still outstanding dollar swap balances? It is the middle of September, for cryin’ out loud, and the Federal Reserve reports $52.3 billion remains on its books as of yesterday. Six months after Jay Powell conducted what he called a “flood”, with every financial media outlet reporting as fact this stream of digital dollars into every corner of the world, how can there be anything greater than zero in overseas liquidity swaps? Six months is an eternity....

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Re-recession Not Required

If we are going to see negative nominal Treasury rates, what would guide yields toward such a plunge? It seems like a recession is the ticket, the only way would have to be a major economic downturn. Since we’ve already experienced one in 2020, a big one no less, and are already on our way back up to recovery (some say), then have we seen the lows in rates? Not for nothing, every couple years when we do those (record low yields) that’s what “they” always say and yet...

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FX Daily, September 11: Still Reluctant to take Euro above $1.19 but Sterling Remains Unloved

Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.09% to 1.0765 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, September 11(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: Yesterday’s roller-coaster price action has not had much impact on today’s activity. The slide in US equities after early gains failed to prevent Japanese, Chinese, and Hong Kong equities from advancing, though other markets in the region were not as resilient. It is the first...

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Bottleneck In Japanese

Japan’s yen is backward, at least so far as its trading direction may be concerned. This is all the more confusing especially over the past few months when this rising yen has actually been aiding the dollar crash narrative while in reality moving the opposite way from how the dollar system would be behaving if it was really happening. A dollar crash, or even just a true reflationary dollar drop, would be JPY negative (like 2017). Ever since the last one, during...

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FX Daily, September 4: Markets Look for more Solid Footing, but Need to Get Passed US Jobs Data

Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.14% to 1.0789 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, September 4(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: The dramatic sell-off of US shares yesterday is the main focus, capturing the limelight from other forces, including today’s US employment report.  It was the third-worst session for the S&P 500 since the March 23 bottom, and the other two did not see follow-through selling. ...

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FX Daily, June 30: When Primary is Secondary

Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.40% to 1.0647 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, June 30(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: The gains in US equities yesterday carried into Asia Pacific trading today, but the European investors did not get the memo. The Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is succumbing to selling pressure and giving back yesterday’s gain. Energy and financials are the biggest drags, while real estate and...

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Looking Ahead Through Japan

After the Diamond Princess cruise ship docked in Tokyo with tales seemingly spun from some sci-fi disaster movie, all eyes turned to Japan. Cruisers had boarded the vacation vessel in Yokohama on January 20 already knowing that there was something bad going on in China’s Wuhan. The big ship would head out anyway for a fourteen-day tour of Vietnam, Taiwan, and, yes, China. Three days in, news reached the Diamond that the Communists had closed down the affected region....

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