Tag Archives: Japan

Jury duty assignment prevents a more comprehensive note, but here is a snapshot. Overview: The failure of computer systems has disrupted airlines, banks, media companies, and the London Stock Exchange, ostensibly stemming from an update from a third-party software update, according to Microsoft. The dollar is trading with a firmer bias. The consolidation, we anticipated, appears to be morphing into a correction. Weaker than expected retail sales has driven sterling...

Overview: The dollar is narrowly mixed against the G10 and emerging market currencies today. The euro is little changed, holding on to last week's gains, after the surprising French election results, where the focus shifts finding a prime minister that can carry a majority of the new and closely divided National Assembly. Despite firm underlying wage data, the Japanese yen has given back its initial gains, and the dollar is pushing back above JPY161 in the European...

Overview: The market feels a bit more at ease after the first round of the French elections that extreme policies will be avoided by an effort to deny the National Rally a legislative majority. French stocks have recouped some of their recent losses and the euro reached $1.0775, its best level since June 13. The yen remains soft after the Tankan survey showed little change but an uptick in capex plans. Outside of the yen and Swiss franc, the dollar is trading with a...

Overview: The US dollar is narrowly mixed as North American participants prepare to return for the last session of the first half. Despite firmer than expected Tokyo CPI and stronger than expected industrial output, the market lifted the greenback around JPY161.25 before profit-taking pressures bought it back toward session lows near JPY160.65 in Europe. President Biden is thought to have lost last night's debate with Trump, but it does not appear to be much of a...

Overview: The US dollar is trading higher against all the G10 currencies today but the Norwegian krone. Norway’s central bank left policy on hold and warned that if the economy performs as expected, it does not anticipate a rate cut until next year. On the other hand, the Swiss National Bank surprised many with its second consecutive rate cut. The Swiss franc is the weakest of the major currencies, off about 0.70% against the dollar. The Bank of England is up next....

Overview: The dollar has caught a bid ahead of the US retail sales and industrial production figures. It is higher against all the G10 currencies but the Swiss franc. The SNB meets Thursday. It surprised many by cutting rates in March and the same logic (low inflation, move ahead of the ECB, stronger franc) may apply now. A hawkish hold by the Reserve Bank of Australia has not done much for the Australian dollar, which is little changed on the day. The greenback...

Overview: The dollar fell alongside US rates yesterday after the softer than expected CPI. The move on both rates and the dollar were pared after the FOMC meeting which held rates steady as widely expected, but the median dot now anticipated one cut this year rather than three. The dollar has recovered more ground today and is trading with a slightly firmer bias G10 currencies. However, trading is quiet and mostly narrow ranges have dominated. North American...

Overview: The dollar is little changed against the major currencies ahead of the US jobs report. It has been trading heavier than we expected given that two more G10 central banks cut interest rates ahead of the Federal Reserve. Next week is its meeting and the market-sensitive CPI. US rates have fallen, and as we note below, the US two-year premium over Germany is at its lowest in nearly three months. The euro is about 0.4% higher on the week ahead of the US...

Overview: The dollar has returned from the weekend with a better bid tone. It is firmer against all the G10 currencies but the yen, Swiss franc, and Swedish krona, which are marginally firmer. The market seems reluctant to extend the euro or Canadian dollar upticks ahead of the central bank meetings this week, though, ironically, sterling’s 0.25% decline leads the major currencies. Election news is a key driver today. A dramatic victory for the Morena party in...

Overview: The dollar is mostly consolidating yesterday's losses ahead of month-end and the US income and consumption data. The PCE core deflator may have risen by 0.2%, the least this, year, but the year-over-year rate is expected to be steady at 2.8%. The dollar is recovering from a five-day low against the yen recorded yesterday near JPY156.40 and is near JPY157.30 in the late European morning turnover. The yen's retreat and a disappointing Chinese PMI have...