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Tyler Durden

Tyler Durden is a reference to the lead character in Fight Club. It's the pseudonym for Zero Hedge's key author(s) used to hide their identities.

Articles by Tyler Durden

Insanity: As The US Enters A Depression, Stocks Are Now The Most Overvalued Ever

April 12, 2020

Two days ago, when a platoon of clueless CNBC hacks said that stocks were extremely undervalued, and must be bought (on their fundamentals, not because the Fed was about to nationalize the entire bond market and is set to start buying equity ETFs in the next crash), we showed just how “undervalued” the market was.
That’s when Credit Suisse chief equity strategist Jonathan Golub – usually one of the most bullish Wall Streeters – published a chart showing that any “temporary” cheapness in stocks hit in late March was long gone for the simple reason that forward earnings have plunged. As a result, as of noon on March 7, when the S&P 500 had risen as much as 22% from March 23 lows, forward stock multiples had surged right back 19.0x.
Why is this notable? Because as

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As COVID-19 Drives People Into Isolation, Wall Street’s New ‘Virtual Workplace’ May Become The Norm

March 24, 2020

As governments take drastic measures to slow the spread of the Wuhan coronavirus pandemic, Wall Street – much like a plethora of other industries – has embraced the virtual workplace, according to Bloomberg.

In Hong Kong, bankers have learned to win stock offerings by video chat, and Morgan Stanley is hosting a virtual meeting for a thousand-plus attendees. At Swiss giant UBS Group AG, wealth management executives have realized trips to see clients weren’t as crucial as thought. In California, an investor in hedge funds said he’s pleasantly surprised by how much faster he can confer with them remotely. –Bloomberg
And according to the report, virtual finance may outlast the coronavirus – assuming a treatment is eventually found. Bloomberg notes that there are

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Jim Bianco: “This Is One Of The Biggest Moments Of Truth In Financial Market History”

March 18, 2020

Authored by Christoph Gisiger via TheMarket.ch,
To contain the economic and financial ramifications of the coronavirus pandemic, Central Banks are going all in.
Jim Bianco, founder and chief strategist of Bianco Research, warns that this time, monetary policy might be unable to stop financial markets from collapsing.
The Federal Reserve brings out the bazooka: It cuts the federal funds rate down to zero and will buy $700 billion in Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities. Additionally, in a coordinated effort with five other major central banks, including the Swiss National Bank, the Fed opens swap lines to smooth out disruptions in overseas Dollar markets.
Still, financial markets seem unimpressed. Futures contracts on the S&P 500 dropped 5%, reaching a «limit

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Credit Suisse MD Dies In Freak Accident After Slipping Through Chairlift And Being Suffocated By His Own Jacket

February 22, 2020

Almost exactly 10 years ago, we detailed the tragic death of Gerard Reilly in a skiing accident – the point man on Repo 105, the point person for E&Y’s “investigation” into the Matthew Lee whistleblower campaign, Lehman’s Level 2 and Level 3 asset valuation, the brain behind the idea to spin off Lehman’s commercial real estate business, Lehman’s Archstone investment, and likely so much more:
[Reilly] was skiing alone on the John’s Bypass Trail, a connector between the Excelsior and Lower Cloudspin ski runs that’s accessible from either the Cloudsplitter Gondola or the Summit Quad chairlift, when he left the trail and hit a tree. A skier following behind Reilly witnessed the incident and contacted ski patrol.
…not only was he was a decent skier but he was over 6’4″

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“ECB Is Worst-Run Central Bank In The World” – Felix Zulauf Sees 30percent Plunge In US Stocks “Taking The World With It”

February 16, 2020

By Lauren Rublin, via Barrons.com
Felix Zulauf was a member of the Barron’s Roundtable for about 30 years, until relinquishing his seat at our annual investment gathering in 2017. While his predictions were more right than wrong, it was the breadth of his knowledge and the depth of his analysis of global markets that won him devoted fans among his Roundtable peers, the crew at Barron’s, and beyond. Simply put, Felix, president of Zulauf Asset Management in Baar, Switzerland, always knew—and still knows—better than most how to connect the dots among central bankers’ actions, fiscal policies, currency gyrations, geopolitics, and the price of assets, hard and soft.
With interest rates rising, governments in flux, and the world’s two biggest economies facing off over

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Bitcoin Tumbles To Key Technical Level, Dalio Disses Diversification Into Digital Currency

January 24, 2020

After pushing up to two-month highs over the weekend, Bitcoin is accelerating lower this morning…

Bitcoin, January 2020 Source: Bloomberg – Click to enlarge
Breaking down from the 200DMA and testing the 100DMA…

Bitcoin, 2019-2020(see more posts on Bitcoin, ) Source: Bloomberg – Click to enlarge
Cryptos are all lower today (and this week)…

Crypto currencies Source: Coin360 – Click to enlarge
…but remain notably higher on the year…
There was no immediate catalyst for today’s drop but we note that CoinTelegraph’s Andrey Shevchenko reports that Bridgewater Founder Ray Dalio warned against holding Bitcoin, saying that it’s neither a medium of exchange nor a store of value.

Crypto currencies, Jan 2020 Source: Bloomberg – Click to enlarge

Dalio was

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UBS Tumbles After Biggest Swiss Bank Misses Key Targets As Investors Pull Money

January 22, 2020

The rift between the US (where rates are still positive) and European banks (where rates have never been more negative) continues to grow.
While US banks have so far reported mostly better than expected results for Q4, the same can not be said for Europe, where UBS shares are down 5% as the bank misses fiscal year profitability and cost targets in addition to trimming its mid-term goals. As Saxobank notes, “UBS has been hit by wealth management outflows, negative rates and poor performance in its investment banking division” and notes that “this obviously sends a warning to investors if they thought overweight European banks was a good idea.” To be sure, negative rates will continue to haunt European banks until the ECB changes its mind on negative rates.
It’s not

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The ‘Great Replacement’ In Switzerland

January 21, 2020

Authored by Guillaume Durocher via The Unz Review,
After the article on the Great Replacement in Belgium, I present you the following translation of an article by Polémia on the situation in Switzerland. The Swiss situation is unique, if only because of the country’s objective excellence and exceptional quality of life, and the extraordinary practice of direct democracy. Thus we have the rather rare situation of citizens actually being allowed to vote on whether and in what conditions new people should be allowed into their country.
Make no mistake: the scale of demographic change is also tremendous in Switzerland, but mainly because of European immigration and even Europeans find it very difficult to accede to Swiss nationality (there is no birthright

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The S&P’s Biggest Bear Capitulates

January 8, 2020

First it was Dennis Gartman shutting down his newsletter after more than three decades, lamenting a market that no longer made any sense (a lament shared by Deutsche Bank’s Aleksanda Kocic), and now the market’s QE4-driven meltup has forced Wall Street’s biggest sellside bear to capitulate on his November call that the market will drop in 2020; instead UBS’ head of US equity strategy, Francois Trahan, has joined the bullish herd hiking his year-end S&P price target from 3,000, where he set the bottom of the year-ahead market forecasts alongside Morgan Stanley’s notorious bear Michael Wilson, to 3,250.
That said, as Bloomberg notes, Trahan’s new forecast is hardly exuberant, as it indicated a market that will close the year virtually unchanged from today’s level

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Xi To Skip Davos, Collapsing Hopes Of Phase One Deal Signing Event With Trump

December 26, 2019

Chinese President Xi Jinping
If it was The Wall Street Journal or other US financial media outlets, for the last several weeks, pumping headlines via “people familiar with the discussions,” about how President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping could have a phase one trade deal signing event at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, in January.
It turns out, after all the optimism of a potential signing event at Davos between Trump and Xi — it was just all bogus hype — as it now appears Xi is skipping the event, according to Bloomberg.
Beijing will still send its top trade negotiator Vice Premier Liu He to sign the phase one trade deal in Washington in January.
It seems that China isn’t interested in grandstanding the trade deal, unlike Trump.
Trump

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Credit Suisse Ex-Employee Says “Striking Tall Blonde” Spy Followed Her In Manhattan And Long Island

December 24, 2019

When Colleen Graham heard a story of investigators looking into Credit Suisse for spying on its recently departed head of wealth management, something sounded familiar.
She had recalled, years prior, when she was working on a JV between the bank and Palantir Technologies, a “striking tall blonde” had followed her in Manhattan after she refused to sign off on how revenue from the JV would be booked. She filed a complaint in 2017 alleging the bank had taken retaliatory measures against her, including the surveillance, according to Bloomberg.
Credit Suisse had “expressed strong frustration” about her stance on the revenue recognition, she claimed.
So she reached out to CEO Tidjane Thiam and Chairman Urs Rohner, offering up the details of her story. She also reached

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Repo Crisis Fades Away: For The First Time, A “Turn” Repo Is Not Oversubscribed

December 23, 2019

It looks like the year-end repocalypse that was predicted by Credit Suisse strategist Zoltan Pozsar is taking a raincheck.
Today’s Term Repo saw $26.25BN in security submissions ($15.75BN in TSYs, $10.5BN in MBS), below the $35BN in total availability. This was the first “turn” repo that was not fully subscribed (on Monday, there was $54.25BN in demand for $50BN in repos maturing on Jan 17).
As such, for the second day in a row, the Fed’s term repo operation was undersubscribed, but what was notable about today’s “temporary” liquidity injection is that this was the first term repo since the start of the Fed’s emergency repo program that covered the year-end “turn” with a maturity of Jan 2, and was not fully overalotted.

.
As shown in the chart below, the first

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Rosenblatt Goes Full Bear On Apple With $150 Target As China iPhone Sales Slump

December 20, 2019

Rosenblatt Securities analyst Jun Zhang maintained a sell rating on Apple with a price target of $150 per share, citing a decline in iPhone sales in China is leading to a wave of production cuts by the company.
“Based on our recent channel checks, we believe Apple’s total iPhone sales in China were down ~-30% y/y in November,” said Zhang in a note to clients on Tuesday.
Zhang stated that consumers are opting for cheaper models than the iPhone 11 Pro, which retails for around $1,100.
Rosenblatt’s sell rating on Apple has a price target of $150 per share, about -46% difference from the current price on Tuesday morning.

Apple sales, 2017-2020 – Click to enlarge
It was only last week when Credit Suisse warned about declining iPhone shipments in China:
CS said

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UBS Has No Choice In Passing Negative Rate Pain To Customers

November 22, 2019

There’s been talk that the Federal Reserve will slam interest rates to zero or even negative when the next recession strikes. President Trump’s support for negative interest rates has quickly increased in the last several months as the latest tracking estimates for Q4 GDP have tumbled to sub 0.4%.
It seems that policy rates in the US are too high — and will likely conform to the rest of the world, which is near zero to negative territory. This has undoubtedly alarmed UBS CEO Sergio Ermotti, who said banks have “no choice” but to pass on the negative rate pain to customers.
Ermotti said UBS “will not pass negative rates to smaller clients, the personal banking clients,” that’s because if UBS and other EU banks actually passed along negative rates to poor and

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World’s Ultra-Rich Preparing For Market Crash, UBS Warns

November 16, 2019

A synchronized global slowdown, with no end in sight, has spooked some of the wealthiest investors around the world, according to a new survey from UBS Wealth Management, seen by Bloomberg. UBS polled wealthy investors, who are preparing for a significant stock market correction by the end of next year.

S&P 500 Index, 2013-2021 – Click to enlarge
In the survey of more than 3,400 high net wealth respondents, 25% said they’ve sold risk assets, such as equities, commodities, and high-yield bonds, and have transitioned into cash. The synchronized global slowdown, coupled with a US-China trade war, were some of the greatest concerns of respondents.
“The rapidly changing geopolitical environment is the biggest concern for investors around the world,” said Paula

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Swiss National Bank Now Owns Record $94 Billion In US Stocks After Q3 Buying Spree

November 14, 2019

In the third quarter of 2019, one in which the global economy continued to cycle lower, global central banks across the world continued to slash interest rates and launched/expanded quantitative easing programs with very little success at troughing global growth. Still, US equity indices powered to new highs, climbing a wall of worry of President Trump’s “trade optimism” tweets.
It seemed quite evident over the quarter that President Trump’s tweeting of constant fake trade news and record stock buybacks juiced the market to new highs, however, what was really taking place was the Swiss National Bank (SNB) printing money out of thin air buying stocks with no regard for price or cost. 
SNB’s motive was to boost market confidence that a 2016-style rebound in the

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Billionaire Boom “Has Now Undergone A Natural Correction”

November 11, 2019

Over the last five years ending in 2018, the billionaire boom created more billionaires than the world has ever seen.
These financial elites saw their wealth increase by more than a third over the same period, but as soon as 2018 rolled around, the billionaire boom deflated, according to a new UBS/PwC Billionaires Report.
Global central banks pumped trillions of dollars into global financial markets and helped produced nearly 589 billionaires during the period, increasing the billionaire population by 39% to 2,101.

Fifteen Years of asset growth, 2003-2018 – Click to enlarge
It was only when the Federal Reserve started to tighten aggressively, and a global synchronized upswing transformed into a downswing, the billionaire boom went into a period of

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Robinhood’s “Infinite Money Cheat Code” Gives Traders Access To Unlimited Funds

November 6, 2019

If one is a central bank – such as the SNB and BOJ – life is easy: you just print as much money as you need out of thin air, and buy whatever you want, without regard for price. For those who are not central banks, having access to unlimited borrowed money may be the next best thing.
It now appears that the millennial-targeting brokerage Robinhood, which offers its users “free” online trades in exchange for quietly selling their orderflow to frontrunning HFTs, has a “glitch” that affords its users to experience just what being a central bank means, by allowing users to trade stocks with virtually infinite leverage, giving them access to what amounts to free money.
First discussed on Reddit’s WallStreetBets forum, the bug was called the “infinite money cheat

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A “Hawkish Cut”? Traders’ Sleepless Nights Dominated By Indecision & Confusion

September 22, 2019

Central Banks Remain Calm, Investors Not So Much
The avalanche of central bank meetings is rapidly winding down. We’ve had cuts, holds and a raise. The surprises have been minimal. Yet it didn’t prevent the inevitable knee-jerk reactions in the market. In truth, put together as a whole, we are no wiser nor better or worse off. I count that as a success. Especially because there was no projection of panic in any of the decisions. Despite on-going, and universal, expressions of concern for the global economy. Special hat tip to the SNB and Norges Bank.

The Fed is said to have orchestrated a “hawkish cut.” Not really. – Click to enlarge
[ZH: Stocks once again decouple from bonds, the dollar, and gold]
Keeping the expansion alive remains a top priority. And while

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Since 2014, European Banks Have Paid €23 Billion To The ECB… And Now Face Disaster

September 15, 2019

Earlier this morning, there was an added wobble in European bond prices after an unconfirmed MNI report said the ECB could delay the launch of QE on Thursday and make it data dependent. While skeptics quickly slammed the story, saying it was just a clickbait by MarketNews…

About this MNI story on a possible delay in ECB QE announcement:
1) No substance, including from the ECB “sources”
2) Let’s hope the story is as accurate as the previous ones
— Frederik Ducrozet (@fwred) September 10, 2019
… it does highlight just how sensitive the bond market is to an announcement of aggressive easing by the ECB when it meets on Thursday, Sept 12, where consensus generally expects a significant easing package, including a -20bp rate cut (followed by -10bp cut later on),

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UBS To Start Charging Rich Clients With Negative 0.75 percent Interest Rate

August 2, 2019

For years, European banks were leery of passing on the ECB’s negative -0.40% deposit rate to their clients for fears of deposit flight and other unintended consequences, in the process being forced to “eat” the difference and impacting their interest income.
However, after five years of NIRP, and with the ECB set to unleash even more negative rates in the immediate future, one bank has finally taken a stand: according to the FT, UBS plans to charge a negative interest rate on wealthy clients, those  who deposit more than CHF 2 million with the largest Swiss bank.
While several, mostly smaller, banks in Switzerland and the eurozone already pass on the cost of negative official rates to corporate depositors, most large

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World’s Central Banks End Pact That Limited Selling Of Gold

July 29, 2019

In a surprising announcement on Friday morning, the European Central Bank said the 21 signatories of the 4th Central Bank Gold Agreement (CBGA) “no longer see the need for formal agreement” as the market has developed and matured, and as a result the signatories “decided not to renew the Agreement upon its expiry in September 2019.”
For readers unfamiliar, the first CBGA was signed in 1999 to coordinate planned gold sales by the various central banks. When it was introduced, the ECB notes that “the Agreement contributed to balanced conditions in the gold market by providing transparency regarding the intentions of the signatories. It was renewed three times in 2004, 2009 and 2014, gradually moving towards less

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UBS Tells Managers They Can Hire 1 Employee For Every 5 Who Leave

May 4, 2019

Like the other lagging European investment banks (Deutsche and SocGen immediately spring to mind), UBS is resorting to the last resort of the embattled megabank CEO when shareholders are demanding higher profits ‘or else’.

After a decade where UBS cut thousands of jobs in its investment bank unit, Sergio Ermotti is turning to one of the few business lines where fat can feasibly be cut: UBS’s once legendary asset-management business.
Before the crisis, the Swiss bank held the title of world’s largest asset manager. But it has seen its stature diminish during the intervening years, largely thanks to rise of passive managers like BlackRock (the current title-holder). Though the number of employees at UBS’s

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Gold & Basel 3: A Revolution That Once Again No One Noticed

April 11, 2019

Via The Saker blog,
By Aleksandr Khaldey
Translated by Ollie Richardson and Angelina Siard
cross posted with https://www.stalkerzone.org/basel-3-a-revolution-that-once-again-no-one-noticed/
source: http://www.iarex.ru/articles/65626.html
Real revolutions are taking place not on squares, but in the quiet of offices, and that’s why nobody noticed the world revolution that took place on March 29th 2019. Only a small wave passed across the periphery of the information field, and the momentum faded away because the situation was described in terms unclear to the masses.
No “Freedom, equality, brotherhood”, “Motherland or death”, or “Power to Councils, peace to the people, bread to the hungry, factories to the worker, and

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Rothschilds To Take Swiss Bank Private In 100 Million Francs Bid 

March 16, 2019

Benjamin de Rothschild’s family plans to take Swiss Bank Edmond de Rothschild (Suisse) S.A. private as it consolidates and simplifies the bank’s legal structure.

According to Bloomberg,  Edmond de Rothschild Holding SA will acquire all publicly held Edmond de Rothschild (Suisse) bearer shares at 17,945 francs per share, a 6.7% premium to Tuesday’s closing price, in a deal worth about $100 million. The Swiss bank, which has long been linked with managing the wealth of countless uber-wealthy families, offers a variety of wealth management service for private and institutional clients, is expected to be delisted from the Zurich exchange. The stock, which traded on Wednesday around 17,500 francs, jumped by more than 8%

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UBS Shares Tumble As French Judge Slaps Bank With $5.1 Billion Tax Evasion Fine

February 20, 2019

In a landmark ruling that sent a clear message to other banks battling misconduct investigations in French courts, a Paris court on Wednesday found UBS guilty of having actively helped some of its wealthy French clients hide money from French tax authorities in undeclared Swiss bank accounts, and ordered the bank to pay a $5.1 billion fine. The fine represents a record sum in France, and isn’t too far below the $6 billion maximum allotted by French law.

Shares of the bank slumped 5% on the ruling.
Regarding the penalty, which followed trials of UBS and its French subsidiary,  trials where the bank was ultimately found guilty, the judge said it reflected the serious nature of the charges.
“The criminal wrongdoings

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Albert Edwards: Investors Should Brace For A World Of Negative Rates, 15percent Budget Deficits And Helicopter Money

February 8, 2019

Eariler this week, when the San Fran Fed published a paper that suggested that the recovery would have been stronger if only the Fed had cut rates to negative, we proposed that this is nothing more than a trial balloon for the next recession/depression, one in which the Federal Reserve will seek affirmative “empirical evidence” that greenlights this unprecedented NIRPy step (in addition to QE of course).
Today, in his latest note to clients after returning from a 2 week vacation in Jamaica, SocGen’s Albert Edwards picks up on this point and cranks it up to 11 writing that “as central banks thrash around for new tools, I have long thought the next recession would trigger the adoption of helicopter money and deeply

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Swiss National Bank Suffers $15 Billion Loss On 2018 Market Rout

January 10, 2019

SNB US Stock Holdings
In the third quarter of 2018, the hedge fund known as the Swiss National Bank did something it had not done in years: it sold stocks. As we showed in November, the overall value of the SNB’s US listed long holdings rose by over $2 billion to $90 billion, but all of this was due to the price appreciation as the central bank sold around $7bn of equities in Q3. This compares to purchases during 1H18 of around $6bn.

SNB US Stock Holdings, Jun 2014 – 2018(see more posts on SNB US Stock Holdings, ) – Click to enlarge

SNB Holdings
Alas, it did not sell enough, and as the next chart showed, some of the SNB’s top holdings would be the stocks that ended up getting hammered the most in the fourth

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Hedge Funds, ETFs, Central Banks Suffer Billions In Losses On Apple

January 4, 2019

It wasn’t that long ago that Apple was the most beloved stock by the hedge fund community, and although in recent months the company’s popularity faded somewhat among the 2 and 20 crowd it is still one of the most popular names among the professional investing community. Which on a day that saw AAPL stock tumble as much as 10% is clearly bad news.
As Bloomberg notes, eight hedge funds that own large stakes in Apple have seen the value of their holdings plunge about $2.13 billion since the company cut its revenue outlook, with AQR Capital Management suffering some of the biggest losses as it saw its holdings decline by about $732 million on Thursday. The firm held 8.8 million shares as of Sept. 30, according to data

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The World’s Biggest Hedge Fund Is Getting Whacked, And Why “Moneyness” Matters

December 12, 2018

Authored by John Rubino via DollarCollapse.com,
A few years ago the Swiss National Bank (SNB) – which traditionally held “monetary assets” like government bonds, cash and gold to back up the Swiss franc – decided to branch out into common stocks.
This was a departure, but for a while a brilliant one. The SNB loaded up on Big Tech like Apple, Amazon and Microsoft, and rode them to massive profits, which enriched both the Swiss people and the SNB’s stockholders (in another departure, it’s a publicly traded company as well as a central bank).
But live by the sword, die by the sword. Turning your central bank into the world’s biggest hedge fund means outsized profits in good times, but potentially serious losses if those

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