Former trader and author of best-selling book “The Black Swan” sat down for an interview with Bloomberg News to mark the upcoming thirtieth anniversary of the stock-market crash that occurred on Oct. 19, 1987 – otherwise known as Black Monday. Taleb famously supercharged his career – and earned a considerable sum of money (though turns out it was less than Taleb felt he deserved) – thanks to his trading profits from...
Read More »Dollar Surge Continues Ahead Of Jobs Report; Europe Dips As Catalan Fears Return
World stocks eased back from record highs and fell for the first time in eight days, as jitters about Catalonia’s independence push returned while bets on higher U.S. interest rates sent the dollar to its highest since mid August; S&P 500 futures were modestly in the red – as they have been every day this week before levitating to record highs – ahead of hurricane-distorted nonfarm payrolls data (full preview here)....
Read More »Key Events In The Coming Week: All Eyes On Fed Balance Sheet Announcement
This week attention will fall on US FOMC rate decision, BoJ policy rate announcement, German and NZ elections. Economic data releases include PMI in the Euro area, retail sales in the UK and existing home sales in US. In Emerging Markets, there are monetary policy meetings in South Africa, Indonesia, Hungary, Taiwan and Philippines. BofA highlights the week's key global events: Central bank meetings: US FOMC and BoJ The Fed will make policy announcement on Wednesday. Balance sheet...
Read More »Global Stocks Slide, S&P Futures Tumble Below 50DMA As “Trump Trade” Collapses
Global stocks are lower across the board to start the week, as concerns about Trump's administration to pull off a material tax reform plan finally emerge, pressuring S&P futures some 20 points lower this morning, following European and Asian shares lower, while crude oil prices fall unable to find support in this weekend's OPEC meeting in Kuwait where a committee recommended to extend oil production cuts by another 6 months. Safe havens including the yen and bonds climbed as did gold,...
Read More »How The Flash Crash Trader Was Scammed Out Of A $50 Million Fortune
The sad saga of Navinder Sarao, who on April 20, 2015 became the scapegoat for the May 2010 flash crash and was sentenced to up to 360 years in prison - he will find out later this year the actual length of his prison sentence - got its latest twist today thanks to a fascinating report how in addition to having lost his freedom, Nav also lost all of trading fortune, some $50 million of it. As Bloomberg's Liam Vaughn recounts, "it took Navinder Singh Sarao a long time to accept that he might...
Read More »Gold Price In GBP Up 4 percent On Brexit and UK Risks
Gold Price In GBP Rises 4% On Brexit and UK Economy Risks – Pound fell 2% against gold yesterday after Theresa May created Brexit concerns – May’s ‘Hard Brexit’ denial does not calm markets growing fears – Investors concerned about lack of government strategy and uncertainty – UK Prime Minister bizarrely blames media and “those who print things” for sterling depreciation – GBP gold builds on 31% gain in 2016 with 4%...
Read More »A Biased 2017 Forecast, Part 1
“The idea that the future is unpredictable is undermined every day by the ease with which the past is explained.” – Daniel Kahneman, Thinking, Fast and Slow A couple weeks ago I was lucky enough to see a live one hour interview with Michael Lewis at the Annenberg Center about his new book The Undoing Project. Everyone attending the lecture received a complimentary copy of the book. Being a huge fan of Lewis after...
Read More »European Stocks Greet The New Year By Rising To One Year Highs; Euro Slides
While most of the world is enjoying it last day off from the 2017 holiday transition, with Asia’s major markets closed for the New Year holiday, along with Britain and Switzerland in Europe and the US and Canada across the Atlantic, European stocks climbed to their highest levels in over a year on Monday after the Markit PMI survey showed manufacturing production in the Eurozone rose to the highest level since April...
Read More »S&P Futures Rise Propelled By Stronger Dollar; Europe At 1 Year High As Yen, Bonds Drop
It appears nothing can stop the upward moment of equities heading into the year end, and as has been the case for the past few weeks, US traders walk in with futures higher, propelled by European stocks which climbed to their highest in almost a year, while the dollar rose and bonds and gold fell, failing again to respond to a series of geopolitical shocks following terrorist attacks in Ankara, Berlin and Zurich. The yen tumbled after the Bank of Japan maintained its stimulus plan even as the...
Read More »Trumpflation Takes A Breather As Global Stocks Rise, Oil Jumps On Renewed OPEC “Deal Optimism”
With the Trumpflation euphoria easing back slightly overnight, leading to a modest paring in the USD index and US Treasury yields, Asian and European stocks rose, while US equity futures rebounded to just shy of new all time highs, as crude jumped on renewed optimism that OPEC will agree to cut output; Italian equities underperformed ahead of the Italian referendum; metals rebounded from last week’s losses as yields dropped and the dollar halted its longest winning streak versus the euro....
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