Tag Archives: Monetary Policy

So, is that it? Have rates peaked? Is the long bear market finally over?  The market decided last week that interest rates have peaked for this cycle. And if rates have peaked then all the assets that have been pressured over the last two years can finally come up for air. Since October 18, 2021, over two years ago, investors have had few places to hide. Of the major asset classes we follow closely, only two – gold and commodities – were higher by more than a...

Overview: The combination of falling Chinese imports and exports, Moody's downgrade of ten US small and medium-sized banks is serving to squash risk appetites. Equities are weak, but bond markets are strong despite the surprise tax on Italian banks announced yesterday and the kick-off of the US $103 bln refunding today. Outside of Japan and Australia, Asia Pacific equity markets were lower led by a 1.8% drop in the Hang Seng and a nearly 2.2% loss of the mainland...

With its annual report from a few weeks ago the SNB communicated minor changes in its monetary policy strategy (p. 24): The review of the monetary policy strategy showed that it has fundamentally proved its worth. There was no need to adjust the first two elements, namely the definition of price stability and the conditional inflation forecast. The strategy has enabled the SNB to fulfil its mandate of price stability well, despite repeated strong external shocks in recent years. The...

What’s your outlook for this year? I’ve heard that question repeatedly over the last month and if you’re reading this hoping I’ll let you have a peak at my crystal ball, you’re going to be disappointed. Because I don’t have a crystal ball and neither, I hasten to add, does anyone else in this business. So, no, I don’t know what’s going to happen this year. I do know what the consensus view is, what the majority expects to happen, and that may be more useful. Because...

One thing I can tell you for certain about last week’s big rally on Thursday and Friday: there were a lot of people who desperately wanted a good excuse to buy stocks. And buy they did after a better-than-expected CPI report Thursday morning, pushing the S&P 500 up nearly 6% on the week with all of that coming on Thursday and Friday. The same could be said of bonds which also had a good week, with the aggregate index up 2.3%. The stock market rally probably says...

PDF. Contents The SNB’s mandate Monetary policy strategy Implementation of monetary policy Ensuring the supply and distribution of cash The SNB’s role in the cashless payment system Asset management The SNB’s contribution to financial stability International monetary cooperation Independence, accountability and relationship with the Confederation The SNB as a company Legal basis Appendix Publications and other resources SNB balance sheet Addresses

The Federal Reserve has been on a mission lately to make sure everyone knows they are serious about killing the inflation they created. Over the last two weeks, Federal Reserve officials delivered 37 speeches, all of the speakers competing to see who could be the most hawkish. Interest rates are going up they said, no matter how much it hurts, no matter how many people have to be put on the unemployment line, because that’s the only way to kill this inflation, to...

Goodbye and good riddance to the third quarter of 2022. That was one of the wildest 3 months I’ve experienced in my 40 years of trading and investing. The quarter started off great with the S&P 500 rising 14% from July 1 to August 16 but ended with a 17% swan dive into the end of the quarter. And we closed on the low of the year. The 10-year Treasury yield rose from 2.97% to 4% just a few days before the end of the quarter. The 3-7 year Treasury index – our...

In an NBER working paper John Cochrane concludes that … we have been guilty of playing with too-complex models when we don’t really understand basics, such as stability, determinacy, and the frictionless limit. … Given the state of actual agreed-on knowledge, central banks’ proclamations of detailed technocratic ability to manipulate delicate frictions is laughable. Figure 10 shows in chart form the Rube-Goldberg list of mechanisms the ECB thinks it understands and can manipulate....

The week ahead is busy. Three G7 central banks meet, the Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan, and the Bank of England. In addition, Japan and Canada report their latest CPI readings, and the flash September PMI are released.  There are three elements of the Fed's meeting that are worth previewing. First is the interest rate decision itself and the accompanying statement. Ironically, this seems to be the most straightforward. Even before the August CPI surprise, the...