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Tag Archives: China

If Trade Wars Couldn’t, Might Pig Wars Change Xi’s Mind?

Forget about trade wars, or even the eurodollar’s ever-present squeeze on China’s monetary system. For the Communist Chinese government, its first priority has been changed by unforeseen circumstances. At the worst possible time, food prices are skyrocketing. A country’s population will sit still for a great many injustices. From economic decay to corruption and rising authoritarianism, the line between back alley grumbling and open rebellion is usually a thick...

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FX Daily, December 09: China’s Steps-Up Import Substitution Strategy while USMCA Comes Down to the Wire

Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.05% to 1.0949 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, December 9(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: The important week is off to a slow start. While the MSCI Asia Pacific benchmark extended its gains for a third session, European and US shares are struggling. The Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is consolidating its pre-weekend 1%+ rally, while US shares are trading heavier after rallying for...

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FX Weekly Preview: An Eventful Week Ahead

The US employment report on the first Friday of December usually marks the unofficial end of the year. The desks are often lighter and dealers are loath to jeopardize the year’s bonuses in thin and often erratic markets.  This year is an exception.  Next week features the first ECB meeting with Lagarde at the helm and the final FOMC meeting of the year.  The UK and China have their monthly data dumps—a concentration of high-frequency data.  The US reports both CPI...

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More Signals Of The Downturn, Globally Synchronized

For US importers, October is their month. And it makes perfect sense how it would be. With the Christmas season about to kick into full swing each and every November, the time for retailers to stock up in hearty anticipation is in the weeks beforehand. The goods, a good many future Christmas presents, find themselves in transit from all over the world during the month of October. For the Census Bureau’s trade data, that means this is the month that shines above...

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FX Daily, December 4: Hope Springs Eternal

Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.19% to 1.0957 . FX Rates Overview: The prospect of not just the failure of the US and China to resolve its trade dispute but a new escalation has sapped the confidence that had lifted equity benchmarks and the greenback. Led by more than a 1% decline in Tokyo (Nikkei), Hong Kong, and Australia, all the major markets in the Asia Pacific region fell. European shares, perhaps encouraged by an upward revision to the flash composite...

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China widerlegt Montesquieu

Die Einbindung Chinas in den Welthandel hat die Demokratie im Land kaum gefördert. Das zeigt, dass Handel Gesellschaften nicht besänftigt. Türken und Uiguren protestieren in Istanbul gegen die Internierung von mehr als einer Million Uiguren in der chinesischen Provinz Xinjiang. Foto: Keystone Handel schafft offenere Gesellschaften, Demokratie und wirtschaftlichen Fortschritt: Solche Argumente gibt es bereits seit Jahrhunderten. Schon der Aufklärungsphilosoph...

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Nothing Good From A Chinese Industrial Recession

October 2017 continues to show up as the most crucial month across a wide range of global economic data. In the mainstream telling, it should have been a very good thing, a hugely positive inflection. That was the time of true inflation hysteria around the globe, though it was always presented as a rationally-determined base case rather than the unsupported madness it really was. That was the month the real recovery was supposed to have started. Instead, we can...

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FX Daily, November 27: In Search of New Incentives

Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.01% to 1.0985 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, November 27(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: The global capital markets are subdued. There have been few developments to induce activity. Even President Trump’s claims that the talks with China are in the “final throes” failed to excite. Equities are extending their advance. Bonds are little changed, and the dollar is mostly...

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China’s Financial Stability: A Squeeze and a Strangle

I do get a big kick out of the way Communists over in China announce how they are dealing with their enormous problems especially as they may be getting worse. Each month, for example, the country’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) will publish figures on retail sales or industrial production at record lows but in the opening paragraphs the text will be full of praise for how the economy is being handled. If you thought the Western media was liberal with the...

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FX Daily, November 26: Some Are More Equal Than Others

Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.08% to 1.0982 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, November 26(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: Neither optimistic comments from Federal Reserve Chairman, that the economic glass is more than half full, nor a seemingly positive spin on the weekend fall calendar between Chinese and US officials have succeeded in deterring some profit-taking today. Most of the large markets in...

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