Tag Archives: China

Overview:  The dollar is offered. Neither the 227k rise in nonfarm payrolls, nor the above 3% Q4 growth that the Atlanta Fed sees the economy tracking, or the uptick in November CPI expected to be reported on Wednesday has been sufficient to dampen speculation of a rate cut next week. The futures market has a nearly 88% chance discounted. The antipodean currencies and Scandis are leading the move, ostensibly encouraged by the pro-growth signals from China's...

Overview: The US dollar is beginning the new week and month on a firm note. It is rising against all the G10 currencies and nearly all the emerging market currencies. US-President-elect Trump's threat to BRICS if they abandon the dollar is symbolic than substantive, as we have argued, despite the occasional claim to the contrary, a BRICS currency is not realistic, and the China has little interest in fostering another competitor to the yuan. Still, like being told...

Overview:  Escalating tensions in Europe and comments from Bank of Japan Ueda that spurred speculation of a December hike are the main drivers of the foreign exchange market today. The yen is the strongest of the G10 currencies, up about 0.65%, while the euro is the weakest, off a little more than 0.25%, and sterling is down almost as much. Most of the other G10 currencies are little changed. Led by central European currencies, most emerging market currencies are...

Overview:  The dollar bounced, and US rates rose yesterday afternoon in response to comments by Fed Chair Powell. But he did little more that reiterate what he had said at the recent press conference. Powell expressed a lack of urgency to move after having led the central bank in delivering a 50 bp cut to start the easing in September while indicating that direction of travel will be to a less restrictive rate. The dollar has come back lower today against the G10...

Overview: Surging US yields helped send the dollar higher but wobbled the stock market yesterday. A fragile consolidative tone has emerged today for the foreign currencies. The greenback remains mostly within yesterday's ranges. All but a few emerging market currencies are trading with a firmer bias. Beijing's weaker dollar fix may have been the first protest of the yuan's weakness since the election. The highlight of the North American session is the US October...

Overview: The dollar is bid to start the new week. It has taken out last week's high against the Swiss franc, and the euro has been sold through last week's lows. The divided opposition allowed Ishiba to continue as Japan's prime minister, heading up a minority government. The German government collapsed last week. Chancellor Scholz wanted to hold off holding (and losing) a vote of confidence until January, setting the stage for elections, but it seems increasingly...

Overview: The capital markets have been choppy as pre-existing positioning meets new thoughts on the implications of a second Trump administration. The dollar has found better footing today after giving back a chunk of Wednesday's gains yesterday. The yen is an exception, but it is not exception that the dollar trades heavier against the yen as the US 10-year yield drifts lower. On the week, the most G10 currencies are holding on to gains against the dollar. Here...

Overview: A nervous calm hangs over the markets as the US goes to the polls. The proximity of the presidential contest warns that the results may not been known as soon as people hope. Indeed, many fear the voting simply begins the next phase of the contest, with premature declarations of victory and disputes over votes. The dollar is in mostly narrow ranges today, but the Antipodeans and Scandis are the strongest, and the Reserve Bank of Australia kept rates on...

Overview: The persistent rise in US rates continues to help fuel dollar gains. The euro has been sold through $1.08 and the greenback has jumped over 1% against the yen to JPY152.75. It finished last week closer to JPY149.55. So far, Japanese officials have been fairly quiet, but this seems likely to change. The US two-year premium over Germany has widened by around 65 bp since late September to return to levels that prevailed in June. The greenback is firmer...

Business travel will prevent the updating of the blog in the coming days.  It resumes October 19 with the Week Ahead.  Overview:  The lack of details from China's fiscal briefing, the soft CPI (and deeper PPI deflation), and a smaller than expected trade surplus did not prevent Chinese equities from advancing (CSI 300 +1.9%). Industrial commodities, such as oil, copper, iron ore, are mixed. Among the G10 currencies, the Australian dollar often acts as the China...