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SNB & CHF

Rising Oil Prices Don’t Cause Inflation

  Correlation vs. Causation A very good visual correlation between the yearly percentage change in the consumer price index (CPI) and the yearly percentage change in the price of oil seems to provide support to the popular thinking that future changes in price inflation in the US are likely to be set by the yearly growth rate in the price of oil (see first chart below). Gushing forth… a Union Oil Co. oil well sometime...

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Lackluster Trade, China April Edition

China’s trade statistics for April 2017 uniformly disappointed. They only did so, however, because expectations are being calibrated as if the current economy is actually different. It is instead merely swinging between bouts of contraction and low-grade growth, but so low-grade it really doesn’t qualify as growth. Positive numbers do get the mind racing, but since the end of 2011 there is almost a speed limit on how...

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Charles Hugh Smith On How Financial Repression Is Affecting Millennial Generation Values

Today’s topic is the millennial generation and how financial repression has resulted in asset bubbles that ultimately have affected the millennials in terms of their values and how they view the economy and life. As well as what they’re facing in terms of the housing market and the job situation. Click here for the full summary with all the supporting graphs/charts: http://financialrepressionauthority.com/2017/05/13/charles-hugh-smith-millennial-housing-summary/

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FX Daily, May 16: Greenback and Dollar Bloc Lose Ground to Europe and Yen

Swiss Franc EUR/CHF - Euro Swiss Franc, May 16(see more posts on EUR/CHF, ) - Click to enlarge FX Rates Dollar selling pressure emerged at the end of last week, partly in response to disappointing US economic data. This selling pressure carried over into yesterday’s activity. It appeared to have been trying to stabilize yesterday in the North American session. News that President Trump may have shared...

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Swiss awarded stolen tax CD payment

Switzerland will receive most of the money paid by the German state of North Rhine-Westphalia (NRW) to a man who provided the state with stolen Credit Suisse client data, it has been confirmed. The CDs of stolen data and now the spy affair have tested German-Swiss relations - Click to enlarge NRW’s finance ministry paid €2.5 million (CHF2.7 million) in February 2010 for the CD, which contained tax details of Credit...

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Weekly SNB Interventions and Speculative Positions: SNB interventions are rising again

Headlines Week May 15, 2017 The pro-European politician Macron has won the French elections. He is a politician that – similar to Hollande four years ago – promises economic improvements, more investment, more jobs. As opposed to Hollande, he also advocates limitations on salaries and less social protection for workers, to restore France’s competitiveness. Mostly probably he will fail – similar to his predecessor...

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Inflation Is Oil, But Inflation Is Much More Than Consumer Prices

The average annual change in the WTI benchmark price was in April about 25%. That was still a sizable increase year-over-year, and just marginally less than March’s average of 33%. For calculated inflation rates, it represents the last of the base effects that have to this point made it appear as if economic improvement was possibly serious. CPI Changes On Energy, January 2016 - May 2017 - Click to enlarge Combined...

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A Bumper Under that Silver Elevator – Precious Metals Supply and Demand

See the introduction and the video for the terms gold basis, co-basis, backwardation and contango.  The Problem with Mining If you can believe the screaming headline, one of the gurus behind one of the gold newsletters is going all-in to gold, buying a million dollars of mining shares. If (1) gold is set to explode to the upside, and (2) mining shares are geared to the gold price, then he stands to get seriously...

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Earnings Update – The Proof of the Pudding is in the Eating

The first quarter just seemed to zoom by this year, bringing continued optimism (or, animal spirits if you prefer) to the stock market and leaving even higher valuations in its wake. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index returned an impressive 6.07% for the quarter, on the tail of the previous five consecutive quarters of positive performance. The second quarter is now a third of the way through and, we are still...

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Charles Hugh Smith: Millennials Will Change The Economy Forever

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