Perspectives Pictet

The risks implied by the Fed’s tightening cycle and the new Chinese monetary regime, among other things, will favour funding currencies over carry currencies in the next twelve months. Instead of looking at single currencies, it is sometimes interesting to look at broader themes to have a better understanding of how a certain group of currencies might behave. Among the best-known themes or strategies are carry trades, which are based on the principle of systematically buying...

We expect the ECB to remain on hold at the 21 January meeting, but the combination of market stress, lower oil prices and renewed concerns about global growth is likely to force the Governing Council to consider easing policy again by the Spring. Two weeks into 2016, six weeks after easing policy at the December meeting, here we are again: the ECB is under pressure to do more. Investors continue to react to a number of related concerns, including the uninterrupted fall in oil prices,...

December core retail sales came in below consensus expectations. Nevertheless, we remain sanguine about the prospects for consumption in 2016. Today’s retail sales report was without a doubt quite disappointing. Although consumption growth seems to have slowed noticeably in Q4 (probably to slightly less than 2.0%, after 3.0% in Q3), we remain sanguine on consumption growth in 2016. Nominal total retail sales fell by 0.1% m-o-m in December, in line with consensus expectations. Total...

A major turnaround in market sentiment appears unlikely in the short term, given continued concerns over growth and policy, as well as a likely poor corporate results season. Chinese equity markets experienced a substantial sell-off in early January, with the CSI 300 losing 7% on both 4 and 7 January. This sent jitters across global financial markets. The latest bout of market instability in China does not appear to have been related to any change in the country’s economic fundamentals....

Published: Tuesday January 12 2016 After a distinguished career conducting famous orchestras all over the world, the Japanese maestro has founded international academies that help young instrumentalists develop their potential by playing chamber music. From a young age, Seiji Ozawa was destined for a career as a classical musician. Born in 1935 to Japanese parents in China, he made a promising start studying piano when his family returned to Japan in 1944. His father had even bought a piano,...

Job creation was strong in December. However, wage statistics were disappointing and most other economic data released recently were rather soft. December’s employment report showed strong job gains, with noticeable upward revisions for the previous two months. However, the unemployment rate remained stable at 5.0% for the third month in a row and wage increases were surprisingly soft (+0.0% m-o-m). Non-farm payroll employment rose by a strong 292,000 m-o-m in December 2015, well above...

Macroview In our 2016 and secular outlook scenarios, we stressed that emerging markets are a source of risks for global markets as they transition over several years from an export-based model to one with a greater role for domestic demand. The recent Chinese equity market jitters are a new manifestation of the uncertainty surrounding the shift in China’s economic model, which implies a slowdown in growth and volatility in economic and financial data. The fear of a rise in these risks...

"Ultrasonic Degradation of Natural Organic Matters and Anthropogenic Contaminants" Dong Chen, Indiana University-Purdue University Fort Wayne ABSTRACT: Powerful ultrasound is an attractive technology used in environmental remediation to degrade recalcitrant anthropogenic contaminants. However, natural organic matters (NOMs), ubiquitously present in surface and ground waters participate and affect the ultrasonic degradation process. The changes to NOM properties suggest that...

"Ultrasonic Degradation of Natural Organic Matters and Anthropogenic Contaminants" Dong Chen, Indiana University-Purdue University Fort Wayne ABSTRACT: Powerful ultrasound is an attractive technology used in environmental remediation to degrade recalcitrant anthropogenic contaminants. However, natural organic matters (NOMs), ubiquitously present in surface and ground waters participate and affect the ultrasonic degradation process. The changes to NOM properties suggest that ultrasound may...

We revise our forecast for Q4 GDP growth from 2.0% to 1.5% as both ISM indices dropped further m-o-m in December. Both ISM indices dropped further m-o-m in December. However, while the Manufacturing index fell to a fresh cycle-low, its Non-Manufacturing counterpart remained pitched at a still relatively healthy level. Nevertheless, most other economic data published recently were surprisingly soft. We revise our forecast for Q4 GDP growth from 2.0% to 1.5%. ISM Manufacturing index fell...