Credit Suisse

Economists and executives at Credit Suisse’s 2016 Latin America Investment Conference agreed that Brazil should make getting its fiscal house in order a top priority as a first step toward re-igniting growth. But that will require a delicate balancing act. Watch the video to hear Mansueto Almeida, a researcher at the Brazilian Institute of Applied Economics (IPEA), explain Brazil’s budget challenges.  

The effects of China’s economic slowdown are truly global: At the same time that investors are pulling billions of dollars out of neighboring Asian countries, Latin American countries are seeing raw materials exports to the Middle Kingdom fall sharply, and China concerns have brought volatility back to stock markets around the world and doused investor risk appetite. Could Europe be the next to be affected by sinking Chinese demand?   Unlike Latin America, a China-related sharp...

As a country, Brazil has many things going for it: a large economy, a young population, and plentiful natural resources. But if it is to enjoy the economic growth those assets can provide, it needs to make structural reforms that can help close budget deficits, slow the growth in public debt, and remove obstacles to economic growth. Former presidents and central bankers, economists and industrialists, all agreed at the Credit Suisse 2016 Latin America Investment Conference (LAIC) that for...

In the old days, before the world was awash in capital with nowhere to go, an announcement of monetary easing was generally considered a good thing, a sign that central bankers were on the job. Historically, in all but the most extreme circumstances, lower interest rates have tended to spur economic activity, with the contemporaneous effect of supporting risky assets. But we are clearly living in an extreme circumstance, and after eight years of such announcements from central banks, it’s...

Are financial markets wrong to be so obsessed with rate changes?   Until late last year, no American or British investment professional in their 20s – and only very few in their early 30s – had experienced a rise in their domestic interest rate during their working lives. That all changed on December 16, 2015 as the US Federal Reserve finally increased rates and reversed a trend that had dominated financial markets for almost a decade.   And yet, although the rate hike was...

When it comes to global financial markets, China is in the driver’s seat. After it was reported in early January that the world’s second-largest economy grew at its lowest rate in 25 years in 2015, Credit Suisse’s Global Risk Appetite index slipped into panic mode – a rare occurrence that has typically only followed major macro events such as the failure of Bear Stearns or the U.S. sovereign debt downgrade.   China is currently in the midst of what might be called a triple bubble...

Since 2009, Europe’s peripheral economies – Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal, and Spain – have tried to dig their way out of a debt crisis by cutting public spending and raising taxes. This year, however, will be different. Fiscal policy in the euro zone is expected to ease for the first time since 2010.   The European economists in Credit Suisse’s Global Markets division say it’s high time fiscal policy loosened in the Eurozone. Had it done so earlier, the region might now be...

The first few days of 2016 were not kind to European and American equities: They each fell 8 percent in the first nine trading days of the year, the worst-ever start to a new year. But the year’s inauspicious beginning isn’t necessarily a sign of things to come — at least, not for European stocks. From the potential for further easing by the European Central Bank to a resilient regional economy, a host of factors play into an increasingly promising forecast for European...

Brazil has certainly had its share of trials and tribulations lately: The economy is in recession, inflation is on the rise, budget deficits are widening, its sovereign debt rating has been downgraded, and the political environment is challenging. Yet, the country still has a lot going for it. It remains the largest economy in Latin America, and one that is rich in resources ranging from agricultural products to industrial metals. Home to some of the continent’s strongest political...

The state of Brazilian exports has deteriorated over the last decade. The country has become more reliant on exporting raw materials compared to manufactured goods, and has suffered from the recent downturn in the prices of many commodities. Meanwhile, the cost of manufacturing goods in the country has surged over the past decade, rendering it less competitive in the global marketplace. How can the country compete more effectively? It must get back to its roots, said manufacturers at Credit...