The Money Market Event is the biggest feast of the Swiss National Bank and a selected list of money managers that work together with the central bank. It is initiated by important speeches and ended with a generous buffet dinner. In the first speech, Andrea Mächler addressed three points: The expansion of the SNB balances sheet as measure against the so-called “strong franc” in a historic perspective. How the SNB takes over currency risks from the private sector. Details on the balance...
Read More »Despite risks a more negative Swiss interest rate possible says SNB’s Maechler
Investec Switzerland. The Swiss National Bank won’t rule out another interest rate cut, though any measure must be weighed with a view to its potential side effects, Governing Board Member Andrea Maechler said. © Yulan | Dreamstime.com “We’re always looking into other options, if needed — we’re looking into all of them,” Maechler said at an event for financial professionals in Zurich on Thursday. “We’re not excluding any of them, including a possible further reduction in...
Read More »The SNB and the Forex Rigging Irony
While Forex banks, traders, and other institutions are being blamed for market rigging, the Swiss National Bank can publish reports about its own market rigging, but instead of being a scandal, it’s economic data. That’s because the vast majority don’t understand how the Forex markets work. It’s not insulting – it’s a fact. Currently there are hundreds of pending litigation cases against a plethora of Forex banks, traders, and other institutions – but none against a central bank....
Read More »Swiss monetary policy and the central bank’s options with regards to the CHF
At its quarterly policy assessment, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) decided to leave its monetary policy unchanged. The SNB could afford not to cut its reference rate after last week’s ECB stimulus failed to have much impact on the Swiss franc versus the euro. The target range for the 3-month Libor was kept between -1.25% and -0.25%; the interest rate on sight deposits with the SNB was maintained at a record low of -0.75%; and the SNB reiterated its willingness to intervene on the foreign...
Read More »Steckt unser Geld in der Falle?
Urs Birchler Am Tag, als die Nationalbank Negativzinsen auf ihren Girokonti einführte, schrieb ich hier naiv, allzu negativ könnten die Zinsen nicht werden. Sonst würden die Banken ihre Giroguthaben lastwagenweise in bar bei der SNB abholen. Jedoch: so klar ist dies anscheinend nicht. These: Die Zürcher Rechtsprofesssorin Corinne Zellweger-Gutknecht argumentiert in der ZfPW (3/2015, S. 350-375), dass gemäss Währungs- und Zahlungsmittelgesetz (WZG) aus dem Jahre 2000 die Giroguthaben der...
Read More »SNB Reduced Loss from 50 Billion in June to 23 Billion
According to the latest news release, the Swiss National Bank expects an annual loss of 23 billion CHF, after reporting a loss of 50 billion at the end of June. Primarily thanks to the stronger dollar, the SNB was able to achieve unrealized gains of 27 billion CHF in the second half. This reduced her annual loss to 23 billion. With its rate hike, Fed is helping the SNB: the dollar has appreciated by 6% since July. Balance Sheet The SNB balance sheet looks as follows. In this post we...
Read More »Die Helikoptergeld-Illusion
Urs Birchler Wenn dem Schweizer auf der Bergwanderung die Luft ausgeht, schwenkt er den REGA-Ausweis und hofft auf den Helikopter. Ähnliches scheint sich gegenwärtig in der Geldpolitik abzuspielen. Der Konjunktur geht die Luft aus, und schon denken wir an den Helikopter. Dieser soll Geld abwerfen, sei es über den Bürgern oder gleich über dem Bundeshaus. Die beiden Bilanzen der SNB zeigen den Unterschied zwischen Helikoptergeld und Geld nach herkömmlichem Anbau. Das von der SNB geschaffene...
Read More »Weekly SNB Intervention Update: Sight Deposits and Speculative Position
Headlines Second week of February: Speculative position: As expected rise to 7268 x 125k contracts long USD, short CHF.Sight Deposits: SNB intervenes for 0.9 bln. CHF during the bad market conditions; safe haven inflows were directed towards CHF or Swiss did not cover their trade surplus with the purchase of foreign assets.FX: EUR/CHF fell under 1.10 and EUR/USD over 1.12. Background Sight deposits are currently the by far most important means of financing for SNB currency purchases, for...
Read More »Swiss inflation: in negative territory, but no sign of a deflationary spiral
Despite the deeply negative inflation rate, the SNB has become somewhat less sensitive to persistent undershoots of its inflation target. According to Swiss Federal Statistical Office, consumer prices in Switzerland remained broadly stable at -1.3% y-o-y in January, in line with consensus expectations and thus marking the seventeenth consecutive month in negative territory. Core inflation (headline CPI excluding food, beverages, tobacco, seasonal products, energy and fuels) was stable at...
Read More »Stiglitz und Strahm beim Tricksen
Urs Birchler Dieser Tage musste man wieder aufpassen beim Zeitunglesen. Beispiel 1: Rudolf Strahm behauptet in Der Bund, dass Rohstoffspekulanten (a) profitorientiert seien und (b) die Preise destabilisieren. Dies geht aber schlecht zusammen. An der Börse gewinnt in der Regel, wer billig kauft und teuer verkauft — das heisst, derjenige der die Preise stabilisiert. Natürlich kann ein Einzelner einmal Glück haben, indem er eine spekulative „Blase“ kurzfristig mitreitet und noch rechtzeitig,...
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