Tag Archives: SNB

Despite the deeply negative inflation rate, the SNB has become somewhat less sensitive to persistent undershoots of its inflation target. According to Swiss Federal Statistical Office, consumer prices in Switzerland remained broadly stable at -1.3% y-o-y in January, in line with consensus expectations and thus marking the seventeenth consecutive month in negative territory. Core inflation (headline CPI excluding food, beverages, tobacco, seasonal products, energy and fuels) was stable at...

Urs Birchler Dieser Tage musste man wieder aufpassen beim Zeitunglesen. Beispiel 1: Rudolf Strahm behauptet in Der Bund, dass Rohstoffspekulanten (a) profitorientiert seien und (b) die Preise destabilisieren. Dies geht aber schlecht zusammen. An der Börse gewinnt in der Regel, wer billig kauft und teuer verkauft — das heisst, derjenige der die Preise stabilisiert. Natürlich kann ein Einzelner einmal Glück haben, indem er eine spekulative „Blase“ kurzfristig mitreitet und noch rechtzeitig,...

The risks implied by the Fed’s tightening cycle and the new Chinese monetary regime, among other things, will favour funding currencies over carry currencies in the next twelve months. Instead of looking at single currencies, it is sometimes interesting to look at broader themes to have a better understanding of how a certain group of currencies might behave. Among the best-known themes or strategies are carry trades, which are based on the principle of systematically buying...

The SNB’s expected December 10 rate cuts have already been priced in to the Swiss Franc. The central bank’s failure to do more than the market expected resulted in a stronger CHF. Growing uncertainty over the Fed’s 2016 monetary policy is a bullish factor for the franc. As they watched the euro strengthen following the ECB’s meeting, SNB representatives rubbed their hands in glee. However, by the start of the Asian FOREX session, the franc was already recovering from its wounds. Now, Bern...

Since 2015, the SNB provides its balance sheet items in a different form. Previously the monthly bulletins provided a history of the balance sheet. The last monthly bulletin appeared for August 2015. It contained all important data of the SNB and the Swiss economy. The balance sheet data is often 2 months or older.  The weekly monetary data and the IMF data about FX reserves and more are published a lot more quickly, but they are not that complete like the monthly bulletin. SNB...

Urs Birchler Am Donnerstag schlug das amerikanische Repräsentantenhaus (vergleichbar unserem Nationalrat) zu. Er entschied gemäss Bericht der New York Times, einen Reservefonds des Fed, d.h. der Notenbank, heranzuziehen zur Strassenfinanzierung. Aufgrund abweichender Haltung des Senats (unser „Stöckli“) geht das Geschäft an diesen zurück. Heute hat der ehemalige Gouverneur des Fed, Ben Bernanke, auf der Homepage der Brookings Institution dazu Stellung genommen. Bernanke wehrt sich gegen den...

Over four years our association of supporters of Austrian Economics from Switzerland, Germany and Austria and helpful hands from all over the world expressed opposition against the CHF cap in in-numerous pages. Finally the SNB agreed to the wishes of Swiss consumers and gave up the cap that effectively represented a tax on consumption and extra-profits for companies and close friends of the central bank. Swiss Inflation Watch: Swiss inflation  As monetarists & Austrians we expect Swiss...

First week of February: Speculators are closing down their short positions on the euro– both against the dollar and against CHF. The carry trade is breaking down into a reverse carry trade. This leads to a strengthening of the euro versus CHF. Given that US data was better than expected, the speculative USD against CHF position should further augment. It was at 4600 contracts versus CHF.No SNB interventions: Sight deposits decreased slightly by 0.2 billion CHF, this implies that the SNB is...

Since the financial crisis central banks in developed nations increased their balance sheets. The leading one was the American Federal Reserve that increased the monetary base (M0, often called “narrow money”), followed by the Bank of Japan and recently the ECB. In most cases the extension of narrow money did neither have an effect on banks’ money supply, the so called “broad money” (M1-M3), nor on price inflation. For the Swiss, however, the rising money supply concerned both narrow and...

Urs Birchler Kürzlich hat der Leiter des Finanzstabilität bei der SNB, Bertrand Rime, in der NZZ eine glasklaren Standortbestimmung zum Too-Big-To-Fail-Problem in der Schweiz vorgenommen. Noch einiges bleibe zu tun, auch bei der Eigenmittelausstattung der Banken. Obwohl die Vorschläge moderat schienen, konnte der Präsident der WAK-NR, Ruedi Noser, nicht umhin, ebenfalls in der NZZ, zu warnen. Die Stellungnahme ist bemerkenswert. Mit der einen Gehirnhälfte denkt Noser liberal: Der Staat soll...