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Worries about a trade war appear to have eased, at least for the moment, but that does not make investors worry-free. The concerns have shifted toward rising US interest rates, perhaps more than anything else, but general anxiety seems elevated. The unpredictableness of Trump Administration is not helpful, and even though oil prices recovered, they did react quickly,  losing a dollar a barrel in response to his tweet....

Summary The Reserve Bank of India is tilting more hawkish. Tensions on the Korean peninsula are easing. The Trump administration reversed course on Russia sanctions. Turkey is heading for early elections. Raul Castro stepped down as president of Cuba. Mexico polls show continued gains for Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador. Stock Markets In the EM equity space as measured by MSCI, Qatar (+4.8%), Russia (+3.3%), and Singapore...

Palladium bullion has surged a massive 17% in just nine trading days. From $895/oz on Friday April 6th to over $1,052/oz today (April 19th). The price surge is due to palladium being due a bounce after falling in the first quarter and now due to Russian supply concerns. In a volatile month, precious metals and commodities have been the clear winners so far, with palladium having the greatest gains of all – up 10.7% in...

The ECB’s Governing Council may have to wait a little longer to get a clearer view of where euro area core inflation is heading in the near term. The early timing of Easter this year has made travel-related services prices more volatile. Another reason is that an unexpected drop in core goods inflation has fuelled concerns over a potentially larger FX pass-through. We are not too worried, as weakness in non-energy...

Statistics published today show a further rise in Swiss healthcare costs. © Aviahuismanphotography | Dreamstime.com - Click to enlarge In 2016, spending on healthcare rose by 3.8% reaching over CHF 80 billion, 12.2% of GDP. In 2015, Swiss healthcare spending was equal to 11.9% of GDP. The challenge of rising healthcare costs is not confined to Switzerland. In the UK in 2015, healthcare costs rose 3.6% to reach 9.9% of...

On 29 January 2018, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) Division of Enforcement together with the Criminal Division of the US Department of Justice and the FBI announced criminal and civil enforcement actions against 3 global investment banks and 5 traders for involvement in trade spoofing in precious metals futures contracts on the US-based Commodity Exchange (COMEX). COMEX is by far the largest and most...

Retail sales rose (seasonally adjusted) in March 2018 for the first time in four months. Related to last year’s big hurricanes and the distortions they produced, retail sales had surged in the three months following their immediate aftermath and now appear to be mean reverting toward what looks like the same weak pre-storm baseline. Exactly how far (or fast) won’t be known until subsequent months. US Retail Sales, Jan...

A Well Known Seasonal Phenomenon in the US Market – Is There More to It? I already discussed the “turn-of-the-month effect” in a previous issues of Seasonal Insights, see e.g. this report from earlier this year. The term describes the fact that price gains in the stock market tend to cluster around the turn of the month. By contrast, the rest of the time around the middle of the month is typically less profitable for...

For all the talk about weaker economic momentum and low inflation in the euro area, we would not jump to conclusions in terms of ECB policy. True, downside risks have re-emerged over the past couple of months, generating understandable concerns and frustration in Frankfurt. However, the ECB is unlikely to respond unless those risks materialise, which is not our central case. If anything, the soft patch should only...

Swiss unemployment is at its lowest for 3.5 years, according to the Swiss State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO). © Gpointstudio | Dreamstime.com - Click to enlarge The last time Swiss unemployment reached March 2018’s level was in October 2014. After reaching a peak of 3.7% in January 2017, the rate had fallen to 2.9% by March 2018. Unemployment has some seasonality however the rate for last March (2.9%) is...