Tag Archives: newsletter

Keep an eye on the system’s buffers. They look fine until they suddenly collapse. The doom-and-gloomers among us who have been predicting the unraveling of an inherently unstable financial system appear to have been disproved by the reflation of yet another credit-asset bubble. But inherently unstable / imbalanced systems can stumble onward for years or even decades, making fools of all who warn of an eventual reset....

© Gregl87 | Dreamstime.com Foreigners who don’t work in Switzerland can benefit from special tax deals known as lump sum taxation, or for fait fiscal in French. Instead of paying tax on their worldwide income and assets their tax is calculated based on their living expenses. When someone becomes Swiss they automatically lose eligibility. The regime, which generated CHF 767 million of tax revenue in 2016, is frequently...

Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.22% to 1.1597 CHF. EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, July 27(see more posts on EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Trends The US dollar is trading firmly in Europe after consolidating yesterday’s gains during the Asian session and ahead of the first look at Q2 GDP. Yesterday’s economic reports, including durable goods orders and inventory data, saw the...

Today’s Governing Council meeting did little to break the seasonal torpor. We continue to expect its first rate hike to come in September 2019. There was no change in interest rates or forward guidance at today’s ECB Governing Council meeting. The Governing Council reaffirmed that bond purchases will end in December and that key interest rates are expected to remain at their present levels “at least through the summer...

© Jakub Jirsák | Dreamstime.com In Switzerland, the official retirement age for women is 64, a year earlier than it is for men. A poll by gfs.bern shows that around two thirds are in favour of raising the retirement age of women to 65. Only 16% are against the idea, with a further 18% somewhat against it. Men (78%) are more in favour of the change than women (54%), according to the newspaper 20 Minutes. In addition,...

Note: This will be a short update. We are shifting the timing of some of our reports. The monthly Global Asset Allocation update will now be published in the first week of the month, aiming for the first of each month. I’ll put out a full report next week. The Bi-Weekly Economic Review is shifting to a monthly update, published on the 15th of each month. We are doing this to make room for some new reports, podcasts and...

A Spike in Bank Lending to Corporations – Sign of a Dying Boom? As we have mentioned on several occasions in these pages, when a boom nears its end, one often sees a sudden scramble for capital. This happens when investors and companies that have invested in large-scale long-term projects in the higher stages of the production structure suddenly realize that capital may not be as plentiful as they have previously...

In 1999, real GDP growth in the United States was 4.69% (Q4 over Q4). In 1998, it was 4.9989%. These were annual not quarterly rates, meaning that for two years straight GDP expanded by better than 4.5%. Individual quarters within those years obviously varied, but at the end of the day the economy was clearly booming. It also helped that these particular two years followed two good ones before them. GDP growth in 1997...

A cry was heard last week when President Trump expressed displeasure with the Fed’s rate hikes. Some, like former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers, claimed that this was another step toward becoming a “banana republic.” Jeffrey Sachs, another noted economist, claimed that “American democracy is probably one more war away from collapsing into tyranny.” The line that Trump supposedly crossed did not change investors’...

UBS may have seen quarterly profits rise year-on-year, but chief executive Sergio Ermotti says the threat of trade wars and political unrest has dampened investor enthusiasm and continues to hold back financial markets. - Click to enlarge UBS may have seen quarterly profits rise year-on-year, but chief executive Sergio Ermotti says the threat of trade wars and political unrest has dampened investor enthusiasm and...