Tag Archives: FX Trends

Swiss Franc The euro has depreciated by 0.24% to 1.0868 CHF. EUR/CHF - Euro Swiss Franc, June 02(see more posts on EUR/CHF, ) - Click to enlarge FX Rates The foreign exchange market is becalmed, leaving the US dollar narrowly mixed.  The euro has been confined to less than a 20-pip range through the Asian session and most of the European morning.  The news stream is light.  The US withdrawal from the Paris Accord...

Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.01% to 1.0883 CHF. EUR/CHF - Euro Swiss Franc, June 01(see more posts on EUR/CHF, ) - Click to enlarge FX Rates The US dollar is mostly firmer against the major currencies.  It is consolidating yesterday’s losses more than staging much of a recovery.  Even sterling, where a YouGov poll has the Tory lead at three percentage points, down from seven previously, is above yesterday’s...

Swiss Franc The euro is lower at 1.0885 (-0.18%). EUR/CHF - Euro Swiss Franc, May 31(see more posts on EUR/CHF, ) - Click to enlarge GBP/CHF Corbyn gains on the Tories. Theresa May calling a snap general selection seemed to be a wise move while the opposition was so weak. With a Tory victory seeming almost inevitable at that point Sterling strengthened against the majority of major currencies. This is due to a...

Summary: No impact from the latest North Korean missile test. Polls suggest Tories still ahead for the June 8 election. Prospects of an Italian election this year weighed on Italian stocks and bonds. The markets of the world’s two largest economies, the US and China were closed on Monday, May 29.    As one would expect, capital markets were mostly quiet. Even the launch of another ballistic missile test by...

Swiss Franc The euro is lower at 1.0901 (-0.11%). EUR/CHF - Euro Swiss Franc, May 30(see more posts on EUR/CHF, ) - Click to enlarge FX Rates With the backdrop of US interest rates unable to get much traction, despite the strong probability of another Fed rate hike in a couple of weeks, the third since last November election, the US dollar mixed today. The chief story today, though, is not the greenback but the...

Swiss Franc Speculators were net short CHF in January 2015, shortly before the end of the peg, with 26.4K contracts. Then again in December 2015, when they expected a Fed rate hike, with 25.5K contracts. The biggest short CHF, however, happened in June 2007, when speculators were net short 80K contracts. Shortly after, the U.S. subprime crisis started. The carry trade against CHF collapsed. The...

Summary: US economic data, culminating with the employment report, should be consistent with a re-acceleration of the world’s largest economy after a typical slowdown in Q1. Eurozone price pressures likely eased considerably in May. For the UK economy, the bounce in April was a fluke, and gradual slowdown continues. Japanese investors have bought foreign bonds for three weeks in a row, which is the longest streak...

Swiss Franc vs USD and EUR The Federal Reserve is on track to hike rates in the middle of June. It will be the third hike since the November election. In addition to keeping the door open to another hike this year, the Federal Reserve has signaled its intention to begin, however slowly, the reduction of its balance sheet. In the meantime, regardless of potential changes in its risk assessment, the ECB is unlikely to...

Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.01% to 1.0902 CHF. EUR/CHF - Euro Swiss Franc, May 26(see more posts on EUR/CHF, ) - Click to enlarge FX Rates The markets are unsettled. It is not so much in the magnitude of moves as the breadth of the move. The nearly 1% rally in gold is a tell, but also the inability of equity market to follow the lead of the US markets, where the S&P 500 and NASDAQ set new records. US...

The first Great Graphic (created on Bloomberg) here shows the rolling 60-day correlation of the level of the S&P and the level of oil since the beginning of last year. In early 2016, the correlation was almost perfect, but steadily fell and spend a good part of the second half of the year negatively correlated. Late in the year, the correlation began recovering, and February reached almost 0.8. However, a month...