Tag Archives: FX Trends

Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.04% to 1.0856 CHF. EUR/CHF - Euro Swiss Franc, June 12(see more posts on EUR/CHF, ) - Click to enlarge FX Rates The US dollar is trading within its pre-weekend range against the major currencies as participants await the central bank meeting starting in the middle of the week. The Federal Reserve, Bank of England, and the Bank of Japan meet.  Only the Fed is expected to hike...

Swiss Franc Speculators were net short CHF in January 2015, shortly before the end of the peg, with 26.4K contracts. Then again in December 2015, when they expected a Fed rate hike, with 25.5K contracts. The biggest short CHF, however, happened in June 2007, when speculators were net short 80K contracts. Shortly after, the U.S. subprime crisis started. The carry trade against CHF collapsed. The...

Summary: FOMC, BoE, and BOJ meet next week; only the Fed is expected to change policy. High frequency data may be less important than the central bank meetings and politics in the week ahead. UK political situation is far from resolved, and US drama continues, while several hot spots in the EMU are emerging. Three of the four G5 central banks meet in the week ahead: the Federal Reserve, the Bank of England and...

Swiss Franc vs USD and EUR The US Dollar has lost 4% against the franc since the beginning of May, while the euro is down only 1%. Most important events in this week were the ECB meeting and the UK elections. The inability of the Tory Party to secure a parliamentary majority spurred a sharp decline in sterling. EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, June 10(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, )The picture shows that FX traders went...

Swiss Franc The euro is up by 0.02% to 1.0851 CHF. EUR/CHF - Euro Swiss Franc, June 09(see more posts on EUR/CHF, ) - Click to enlarge FX Rates What looked like a savvy move in late April has turned into a nightmare.  Collectively, voters have denied the governing Conservative party a parliamentary majority. The uncertainty today does not lie yesterday with the known unknown, but with the shape of the next...

This Great Graphic, created on Bloomberg, depicts the interest rate differential between the US and Germany. The euro-dollar exchange rate often seems sensitive to the rate differential. The white line is the two-year differential and the yellow line is the 10-year differential. There are a few observations to share. First, the 10-year premium is often greater than the two-year premium. It has been five years since this...

Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.11%  to 1.0852 CHF. EUR/CHF - Euro Swiss Franc, June 08(see more posts on EUR/CHF, ) - Click to enlarge FX Rates Today has an anti-climactic feel to it. Yesterday’s leak of what is purported to be the ECB staff forecasts point to small downward revisions to inflation forecasts and an ever small upward tweak to growth. This would be in line with only mild changes in the forward...

Swiss Franc The euro is higher at 1.0854 CHF (+0.06%). EUR/CHF - Euro Swiss Franc, June 07(see more posts on EUR/CHF, ) - Click to enlarge FX Rates Tomorrow may be the most important day of the quarter for investors. The ECB meets. The UK goes to the polls. Former FBI Comey testifies.  Ahead of these significant events, the global capital markets are mostly quiet, with some pockets of activity. The US dollar is...

Swiss Franc The euro is lower at 1.0853 (-0.06%). EUR/CHF - Euro Swiss Franc, June 06(see more posts on EUR/CHF, ) - Click to enlarge FX Rates The week was supposed to be dominated by the UK election and the ECB meeting, but the yen is stealing the show in the first part of the week. The US dollar has been sold through JPY110 for the first time since late April. The euro has fallen from JPY125.30 before the...

Summary: Spain’s Banco Popular is scrambling ahead of its meeting with the ECB tomorrow; shares are around 50% in three sessions. Italy has two banks that may see the same deal Monte Paschi negotiated with the EU. Portugal banks are still putting loan loss reserves and provisions aside. Eurozone The eurozone appears to be in rare form. The political threat that seemed so palpable at the start of the year has...