Tag Archives: FX Trends

Swiss Franc EUR/CHF - Euro Swiss Franc, December 28(see more posts on EUR/CHF, ) - Click to enlarge FX Rates Equities:  Good day in Asia, where the MSCI Asia-Pacific Index rose 0.3% to snap a six-day slide.  Of note the Hang Seng re-opening from a long holiday weekend rose (0.8%) from a five-month low.  Chinese shares that trade in HK also did well, rising 1.5%.  Indonesia, which broke a nine-day slide yesterday,...

This Great Graphic caught my eye.  It was tweeted by Ninja Economics.  Her point was about immigration.  German had much higher immigration than the UK, but also saw real wage increase of nearly 14% in the 2007-2015 period, while real wages in the UK fell nearly 10.5%. She noted that Greece is the only developed country where real wages have collapsed as much as in the UK.  This is amazing, and not because of...

Swiss Franc EUR/CHF - Euro Swiss Franc, December 27(see more posts on EUR/CHF, ). FX Rates As skeleton teams return to the trading desks in New York, the US dollar is largely where they left it at the end last week.  Japanese markets were open yesterday, while UK, Australia, New Zealand, Hong Kong and Canadian markets are still closed today. The Australian and New Zealand dollars are up about 0.2% from before the...

Investors are familiar with a broad set of macroeconomic variables that often drive asset prices.  Many are familiar with corporate balance sheets, price-earning ratios, free cash flow, Q-ratio, and the like. However, political factors are more difficult for investors to integrate into their analysis. Therein lies the main challenge in the year ahead.  There will be many opportunities for political factors to overwhelm...

Swiss Franc Speculators were net short CHF in January 2015, shortly before the end of the peg, with 26.4K contracts. Then again in December 2015, when they expected a Fed rate hike, with 25.5K contracts. The biggest short CHF, however, happened in June 2007, when speculators were net short 80K contracts. Shortly after, the U.S. subprime crisis started. The carry trade against CHF collapsed. The...

While few will be trading in the week between Christmas and New Years, we thought it might be helpful to review the dollar’s technical condition.  We make two overall points. First, although the dollar’s rally strengthened and extended after the November US election, this leg up of the dollar’s longer-term rally began at the end of Q3.  The anticipation of new policies by the Trump Administration, part of the story,...

Swiss Franc EUR/CHF - Euro Swiss Franc, December 23(see more posts on EUR/CHF, ) - Click to enlarge FX Rates Asian shares trade heavily. The MSCI Asia-Pacific Index ex-Japan fell 0.4%.  It is the fourth lower close this week and brings the loss to 1.75% for the week.  It is fallen in seven of the past nine weeks.  The Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is little changed on the session and is nursing a minor loss on the week and...

Summary: High-wage economies of Canada, EU, Japan and Australia account for nearly half of US corporate employment abroad. And even in low-wage regions, the high-wage parts tend to draw more US employment. The new US administration may have second thoughts about pivot to Asia, but US companies may not. US Flag Around the Earth --- Image by © Images.com/Corbis - Click to enlarge The US economy created roughly...

Swiss Franc EUR/CHF - Euro Swiss Franc, December 22(see more posts on EUR/CHF, ) - Click to enlarge GBP/CHF rates have dipped over the past week, as the markets start to slowdown ahead of the Christmas period. Market trends become harder to predict at this time of year, due to the fact there is less capital injected by investors. Less liquidity ultimately equals less stability and the Pound may be suffering due...

Swiss Franc EUR/CHF - Euro Swiss Franc, December 22(see more posts on EUR/CHF, ) - Click to enlarge GBP/CHF rates have dipped over the past week, as the markets start to slowdown ahead of the Christmas period. Market trends become harder to predict at this time of year, due to the fact there is less capital injected by investors. Less liquidity ultimately equals less stability and the Pound may be suffering due...