Tag Archives: FX Trends

Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.14% to 1.0903 CHF. EUR/CHF - Euro Swiss Franc, May 25(see more posts on EUR/CHF, ) - Click to enlarge GBP/CHF Pound to Swiss Franc exchange rates have seen a choppy day of trading but almost no net movement whatsoever, with the percentage difference on buying Swiss Franc rates since the opening bell at a paltry 0.01%. Why the quiet market? We are at the back end of the month...

Swiss Franc EUR/CHF - Euro Swiss Franc, May 24(see more posts on EUR/CHF, ) - Click to enlarge GBP/CHF Labour gains ground The Conservatives were in a very strong position following the election announcement. A snap election historically causes the currency in question to weaken, but on this occasion the opposite occurred. A Torie victory is deemed to be positive for the UK economy. Investor confidence grew and...

Summary: The dollar’s downside momentum faded today, but it has not shown that it has legs. Watch 96.45 in the DXY and $1.3055 in sterling. The US 2-year note yield is low, given expectations for overnight money. The US premium needs to widen. The US dollar’s downside momentum faded today. While one should not read much into it, it could be an early sign that the market has discounted the recent news stream,...

Swiss Franc EUR/CHF - Euro Swiss Franc, May 23(see more posts on EUR/CHF, ) - Click to enlarge FX Rates The US dollar cannot get out of its own way, it seems. With a light economic schedule, there is little to offset the continued drumbeat of troubling political developments. The latest turn, as reported first in the Washington Post, that President Trump asked heads of intelligence groups to also publicly deny...

Swiss Franc EUR/CHF - Euro Swiss Franc, May 22(see more posts on EUR/CHF, ) - Click to enlarge FX Rates After being shellacked last week, the US dollar is trading with a firmer bias against all the major currencies, but the euro and New Zealand dollar. To be sure, it is not that a new development has emerged to take investors’ minds from intensifying political uncertainty in the US. Rather it seems to be simply...

Swiss Franc Speculators were net short CHF in January 2015, shortly before the end of the peg, with 26.4K contracts. Then again in December 2015, when they expected a Fed rate hike, with 25.5K contracts. The biggest short CHF, however, happened in June 2007, when speculators were net short 80K contracts. Shortly after, the U.S. subprime crisis started. The carry trade against CHF collapsed. The...

Summary: US drama distracts from the difficult and ambitious economic program. European and Japanese developments have been constructive. Bank of Canada is the only G7 central bank that meets, and it is not expected to shift from its cautious stance. The no-drama Obama has given way to “The Donald” who appears to be providing more melodrama than an Emmy-winning soap opera. To be sure it is not just him. Hope...

Summary: Markel said the euro was too weak, so it rallied. This is not a new position for Germany. Merkel may now tack to the left since the AfD appears to have been dispatched. Look for Weidmann to begin moderating views or becoming less antagonistic. The interruption of last week’s steady negative news stream from the US saw the dollar consolidate its recent losses.  German Chancellor Merkel’s comments...

Swiss Franc vs USD and EUR The Swiss Franc recovered a lot of the losses that came with the French elections. That political event was mostly driven by speculators that will close their positions. We expected the EUR to trade around 1.07 to 1.0750 CHF in some time. What exactly is this “some time” remains open, but is at the latest in early 2018. Many, like Thomas Flury, currency strategist at UBS, think that the...

Second, and ultimately, Maron’s success will depend on his ability to revive the French economy. The French economy has been a lagged for several years.  The unemployment rate is near 10%, more than twice the UK and US rate.  The German unemployment rate is below 6%, and the lowest since unification.  Macron will likely emphasize labor market reforms and tax cuts. France Unemployment Rate, Q1 2017(see more posts on...