Tag Archives: FX Trends

Summary: Light economic calendar in the week ahead, but anticipation of US tax reform may underpin dollar and equities. European politics are in flux (France, Italy, Greece) and this may see spreads widen over Germany. Russia’s outlook was upgraded by Moody’s before the weekend, and China has announced no coal imports this year from North Korea. Brazil is expected to cut Selic by 75 bps. The week ahead is...

  Swiss Franc Currency Index The Swiss Franc index was mostly unchanged against the U.S. Dollar Index in the last week. One word about Marc Chandler’s argumentation below: Three types of investors are long the dollar: FX investors/speculators are long the dollar because of the difference in monetary policy (e.g. higher US rates). Cash investors, for example rich people from China and other Emerging Markets, currently...

Summary: The system of checks and balances is working. Populism-nationalism is not sweeping across the world. Even in US and UK, populist agenda was appropriated by the main-center right party. The attack on the body politics is activating the immune system in ways that the consensus narrative does not recognize. The high level of anxiety among investors is masked by the rise of equities. As political issues...

Swiss Franc EUR/CHF - Euro Swiss Franc, February 17(see more posts on EUR/CHF, ) - Click to enlarge FX Rates The US dollar is finishing the week on a steady to firmer note against the major currencies but the Japanese yen. The softer yields and weaker equity markets often are associated with a stronger yen. For the week as a whole, the dollar is mostly lower, though net-net it has held its own against sterling,...

Swiss Franc EUR/CHF - Euro Swiss Franc, February 16(see more posts on EUR/CHF, ) - Click to enlarge GBP/CHF At the time of  writing the pound is trading much closer to it’s annual low against the Swiss Franc than it’s annual high, and for reason for this can simply be put down to last years Brexit vote. We are now just weeks from the formal initiation of the Brexit process and interestingly the Pound is...

Swiss Franc EUR/CHF - Euro Swiss Franc, February 15(see more posts on EUR/CHF, ) - Click to enlarge GBP/CHF The pound to Swiss Franc exchange rate remains in a volatile position susceptible to risks of deterioration from outside global events. The Franc being a safe haven currency leaves it at the mercy of some international events which can cause a flight to safety as investors use the Franc’s stability and...

President Trump hinted at the end of last week that the Administration’s tax proposals would be aired in the next two or three weeks. This seems to be a signal of its inclusion in his address to both houses of Congress on February 28. This is not quite a State of the Union speech, but similar and precisely what Obama did in February 2009. Taxes are complicated. Much of the discussion so far has been on the border...

Swiss Franc EUR/CHF - Euro Swiss Franc, February 14(see more posts on EUR/CHF, ) - Click to enlarge The pound has seen a good start to the week making gains against all of the major currencies including the Swiss Franc. One of the reasons why the pound is supported appears to be the shift of attention from Brexit to other global changes to include the new Trump administration and the upcoming European...

Swiss Franc EUR/CHF - Euro Swiss Franc, February 13(see more posts on EUR/CHF, ) - Click to enlarge GBP/CHF Pound to Swiss Franc exchange rates provide strong beginning to the week Pound to Swiss Franc exchange rates have enjoyed a strong boost to begin the week, after what had been a disheartening end to the week for many Franc buyers. The Pound has regularly suffered on Friday’s since the Referendum, with...

My new book,Political Economy of Tomorrowhas just been published, and it is available on Amazon. The book is not so much of a sequel to my first book,Making Sense of the Dollar. There is very little about the foreign exchange market in the new book.  However,  it is not wholly new cloth either.  There is a journalist-cum-presidential adviser at the turn of the 20th century, Charles Conant, that I introduce in the first...