Tag Archives: China

Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.08% at 1.125 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, June 12(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: The S&P 500 snapped a five-day advance yesterday and set the heavier tone for equities today. Continued protests in Hong Kong were not shrugged off as they have been in the last couple of sessions. The Hang Seng’s nearly 1.9% decline was...

In what has become a four-part series, we are looking at the monetary science of China’s potential strategy to nuke the Treasury bond market. In Part I, we gave a list of reasons why selling dollars would hurt China. In Part II we showed that interest rates, being that the dollar is irredeemable, are not subject to bond vigilantes. In Part III, we took on the Quantity Theory of Money head-on, and showed the...

The media quickly picked up on Jay Powell’s comments this week from Chicago. Much less talked about was why he was in that particular city. The Federal Reserve has been conducting what it claims is an exhaustive review of its monetary policies. Officials have been very quick to say they aren’t unhappy with them, no, no, no, they’re unhappy with the pitiful state of the world in which they have to be applied. That’s not...

Again, who’s following who? As US Treasury yields drop and eurodollar futures prices rise, signaling expectations for lower money rates in the near future, Federal Reserve officials are catching up to them. It was these markets which first took further rate hikes off the table before there ever was a Fed “pause.” Now that the Fed is paused, it’s been these same markets increasingly projecting not just a rate cut or two...

[embedded content] Alhambra Investments CEO reviews economic charts from the past month and his opinion of what they mean. Related posts: Monthly Macro Monitor – March 2019 (VIDEO) Monthly Macro Monitor – February (VIDEO) Monthly Macro Monitor – December 2018 (VIDEO) Monthly Macro Chart Review – April 2019 (VIDEO) Monthly Macro Monitor – January...

Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.09% at 1.115 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, June 05(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: The Federal Reserve’s patience never excluded a rate cut should conditions warrant. The acknowledgment of this without signaling a change its stance is being seized upon to justify aggressive pricing of rates. At the same time, there has...

Is recession coming? Well, yeah, of course, it is but whether it is now, six months from now or 2 years from now or even longer is impossible to say right now. Our Jeff Snider has been dutifully documenting all the negativity reflected in the bond and money markets and he is certainly right that things are not moving in the right direction. But moving in the wrong direction, even deeply, as we discovered in 2015/16,...

We have been discussing the impossibility of China nuking the Treasury bond market. We covered a list of challenges China would face. Then last week we showed that there cannot be such a thing as a bond vigilante in an irredeemable currency. Now we want to explore a different path to the same conclusion that China cannot nuke the Treasury bond market. To review something we have said many times, the dollar is borrowed....

The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) piled on more bad news to the otherwise pleasing GDP headline for the first quarter. In its first revision to the preliminary estimate, the government agency said output advanced just a little less than first thought. This wasn’t actually the substance of their message. Accompanying this first revision was the first set of estimates for corporate profits. For the second straight...

In May 2018, the European Parliament found that it was incredibly popular. Commissioning what it calls the Eurobarameter survey, the EU’s governing body said that two-thirds of Europeans inside the bloc believed that membership had benefited their own countries. It was the highest showing since 1983. Voters in May 2019 don’t appear to have agreed with last year’s survey. For the first time since 1979, Social Democrats...