Tag Archives: China

The Chinese economy grew at a faster rate than expected in the first quarter as policy stimulus effects kick in. The National Bureau of Statistics of China published Q1 GDP figures along with some key economic indicators for March. The data generally surprised on the upside. While we had previously flagged the upside risk to our earlier GDP forecast following the rebound in PMIs and strong credit numbers, the latest...

It had been 55 months, nearly five years since China’s vast and troubled industrial sector had seen growth better than 8%. Not since the first sparks of the rising dollar, Euro$ #3’s worst, had Industrial Production been better than that mark. What used to be a floor had seemingly become an unbreakable ceiling over this past half a decade. According to Chinese estimates, IP in March 2019 was 8.5% more than it was in...

Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.24% at 1.1395 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, April 17(see more posts on EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: The veracity of Chinese data will be questioned by economists, but today’s upbeat reports round out a picture that began with stronger exports and a surge in lending. Chinese officials, we argue, had a “Draghi moment” and decided to...

According to revised figures, things were really looking up for US industry. For the month of April 2018, the Federal Reserve’s Diffusion Index (3-month) for Industrial Production hit 68.2. Like a lot of other sentiment indicators, this was the highest in so long it had to be something. For this particular index, it hadn’t seen better than 68 since way back in March 2010, back when the economy looked briefly like it...

China’s Passenger Car Association reported last week that retail sales of various vehicles totaled 1.78 million units in March 2019. The total was 12% less than the number of automobiles sold in March 2018. This matches the government’s data, both sets very clear as to when Chinese economic struggles accelerated: May 2018. For decades, there was just one way for China’s car market: up. Once the trend abruptly reversed...

Alhambra CEO Joe Calhoun discusses the charts from the past month and what they indicate. [embedded content] Related posts: Monthly Macro Chart Review: April 2019 Monthly Macro Chart Review – March (VIDEO) Monthly Macro Monitor – March 2019 (VIDEO) Monthly Macro Monitor – February (VIDEO) Monthly Macro Chart Review – March Monthly Macro Monitor –...

Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.29% at 1.1317 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, April 12(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: The consolidative week in the capital markets is drawing to a close. Equity markets are narrowly mixed. In Asia, most indices outside of the greater China (China, Taiwan, and Hong Kong) edged higher, leaving the MSCI Asia Pacific Index...

The eurodollar era saw not one but two credit bubbles. The first has been studied to death, though almost always getting it wrong. The Great Financial Crisis has been laid at the doorstep of subprime, a bunch of greedy Wall Street bankers insufficiently regulated to have not known any better. That was just a symptom of the first. The housing bubble itself was more than housing. What was going on in the shadows wasn’t...

Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.37% at 1.1303 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, April 11(see more posts on EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: The S&P 500 closed higher yesterday for the ninth session in the past ten, but the coattails are short and global equities are trading with a heavier bias today. A firm CPI reading in China took a toll local shares with the...

Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.15% at 1.1276 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, April 10(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates There were only a few formal disputes under NAFTA 1.0. It says more about the adjudication process than the underlying issues. It was not binding. The Democrats want stronger enforcement provisions in what the NAFTA 2.0. It is understandable. Still,...