Tag Archives: China

China is isolated on trade. No one supports its trade practices. The idea that China was going to “naturally” evolve to be more like the US, or Europe for that matter, was always fanciful and naive. The emergence of China, as Napoleon warned two centuries ago, would make the world shake. US administrations adopted a multi-prong strategy of managing the rise of China. On economic issues, the focus was on working through...

There is truth to the trade war. That’s a big problem because it’s not the only problem. It isn’t even the main one. Given that, it’s easy to look at tariffs and see all our current ills in them. The Census Bureau reports today that the trade wars have definitely arrived. In March 2019, US imports from China plummeted by nearly 19% year-over-year. In the entire series which goes back to 1988, there are only three...

The first time the global economy was all set to boom, officials were at least more cautious. Chastened by years of setbacks and false dawns, in early 2014 they were encouraged nonetheless. The US was on the precipice of a boom (the first time), it was said, and though Europe was struggling it was positive with a more aggressive ECB emerging. Even Japan was looking forward to a substantial QQE-based pickup – after the...

Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.25% at 1.1389 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, May 09(see more posts on EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: The end of the tariff truce between the US and China continues to dominate investment considerations. The truce was often cited in narratives explaining the recovery of equities from the Q4 18 slide. Ahead of the midnight US tariff...

It was a startling statement for the time. Mario Draghi had only been on the job as President of the European Central Bank for a few months by then, taking over for the hapless Jean Claude-Trichet who was unceremoniously retired at the end of October 2011 amidst “unexpected” chaos and turmoil. It was Trichet who contributed much to the tumult, having idiotically raised rates (twice) during 2011 even as warning signs of...

While Trump’s weekend tweets have created fresh uncertainties around US trade talks with China, some perspective is needed. At the weekend, US President Trump threatened to increase the tariff rate on Chinese imports as he believes that US-China trade negotiations are going “too slowly”. Importantly, Trump’s threats do not mean bilateral talks are breaking down. Indeed, the Chinese government confirmed today that its...

Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.04% at 1.1399 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, May 06(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: Reports that a US-China deal could be struck by May 10 before the weekend left investors ill-prepared for the presidential tweets yesterday that announced that the US was ending the tariff truce. Trump indicated that the 10% tariff on $200...

Last April, monetary officials in Japan were publicly contemplating ending asset purchases under QQE. This April, they are more quietly wondering what other financial assets they might have to buy just to keep it all going a little longer. I’d suggest something like the clouds passing over the islands or the ocean water surrounding them. Nobody would notice either way and it would be equally as effective. Before the...

Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.23% at 1.1401 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, May 01(see more posts on EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: The May Day holiday has shut most markets in Asia and Europe, making for subdued market action. Equity markets that are open, like Australia and the UK, advanced and US shares are trading higher helped by Apple’s upbeat forecasts and...

The economic sickness is predictably spreading. While unexpected in most of the world which still, somehow, depends on central banking forecasts, it really has been almost inevitable. From the very start, just the utterance of the word “decoupling” was the kiss of death. What that meant in the context of globally synchronized growth, 2017’s repeatedly dominant narrative, wasn’t the end of synchronized as many tried to...