SNB & CHF

© Andrey Popov – Dreamstime.com 20 Minutes. A recent article in the newspaper 20 Minutes highlights the nasty surprise some young people experience when their parents fail to pay their health insurance premiums. Turning 18 is one of life’s key milestones. It corresponds with the end of school and entry into a new world. In Switzerland it is also a health insurance milestone. Switzerland’s system of compulsory basic...

Swiss Franc Speculators were net short CHF in January 2015, shortly before the end of the peg, with 26.4K contracts. Then again in December 2015, when they expected a Fed rate hike, with 25.5K contracts. The biggest short CHF, however, happened in June 2007, when speculators were net short 80K contracts. Shortly after, the U.S. subprime crisis started. The carry trade against CHF collapsed. The...

Stock Markets EM FX closed last week on a mixed note, with markets struggling to find a compelling investment theme. The US jobs data this week could provide some more clarity on Fed policy. We still think markets are still underestimating political risk in the big EM countries, including Brazil (Moody’s outlook moved to negative), Mexico (election in state of Mexico), South Africa (ANC debates Zuma’s fate), and Turkey...

Summary: US economic data, culminating with the employment report, should be consistent with a re-acceleration of the world’s largest economy after a typical slowdown in Q1. Eurozone price pressures likely eased considerably in May. For the UK economy, the bounce in April was a fluke, and gradual slowdown continues. Japanese investors have bought foreign bonds for three weeks in a row, which is the longest streak...

Swiss Franc vs USD and EUR The Federal Reserve is on track to hike rates in the middle of June. It will be the third hike since the November election. In addition to keeping the door open to another hike this year, the Federal Reserve has signaled its intention to begin, however slowly, the reduction of its balance sheet. In the meantime, regardless of potential changes in its risk assessment, the ECB is unlikely to...

Stock Markets EM FX closed last week on a mixed note, with markets struggling to find a compelling investment theme. The US jobs data this week could provide some more clarity on Fed policy.  We still think markets are still underestimating political risk in the big EM countries, including Brazil (Moody’s outlook moved to negative), Mexico (election in state of Mexico), South Africa (ANC debates Zuma’s fate), and...

© Irakite | Dreamstime.com Ahead of the automatic exchange of bank account information, which comes into effect at the beginning of next year, Swiss residents with undeclared foreign bank accounts are rushing to come clean to the tax authorities, according to Swiss broadcaster RTS. According to RTS, 380 have come forward in Fribourg, 173 in Valais, 254 in Jura, around 2,000 in Neuchâtel and 4,000 in Geneva. The canton...

Speed and coverage of mobile telecoms is well above average in Switzerland. - Click to enlarge Speed, availability, network responsiveness: on all counts, the mobile experience in Switzerland is “an excellent one”, according to a new report. But improvements could still be made to advance on the leader board. This is the verdict published Wednesday May 24 by OpenSignal, a London-based private held company that issues...

Central Banks Produce Dire Consequences for the Free Market Todd “Bubba” Horwitz has recently produced a podcast with our friend Claudio Grass of Global Gold, which we can be called up further below. Bubba has provided a summary of the topics discussed, an edited version of which you find below as well. Global Gold CEO Claudio Grass, tireless advocate for free markets, sound money and liberty. Photo via Global Gold...

Two more manufacturing surveys suggest sharp deceleration in momentum, or, more specifically, the momentum of sentiment (if there is such a thing). The Federal Reserve’s 5th District Survey of Manufacturing (Richmond branch) dropped to barely positive, calculated to be just 1.0 in May following 20.0 in April and 22.0 in March. It follows an all-too-familiar pattern, where sentiment spiked to start this year after being...