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Stock Markets EM FX ended Friday mixed, capping off a mostly softer week. TRY, MXN, and RUB were the top performers and the only ones up against USD, while ARS, CLP, and BRL were the worst.  Looking ahead, US jobs data on Friday pose some risks to EM, coming on the heels of a higher than expected 2% y/y rise in PCE. China will also remain on the market’s radar screen, with the first snapshots of June economic activity...

See the introduction and the video for the terms gold basis, co-basis, backwardation and contango. “On résiste à l’invasion des armées; on ne résiste pas à l’invasion des idées.” These are the actual words written by Victor Hugo in Histoire d’un Crime (History of a Crime).Translated literally, it means an invasion of armies can be resisted; an invasion of ideas cannot be resisted. However, there are many alternative...

More banks turned a profit last year than in 2016 Switzerland lost a total of nine banks in 2017 bringing the total to 253. Around 20 years ago the country boasted more than 400 banks. According to the annual “Banks in Switzerland” report released by the Swiss National Bank (SNB) on Thursday, only one foreign bank opened a Swiss branch last year. The number of people working for banks also declined. Staff numbers in...

A gold bond is debt obligation that is denominated in gold, with interest and principal paid in gold. As I will explain below, it’s a way for the issuer to pay off its debt in full, and there are other advantages. Sometimes, I find that it’s helpful to show a picture of what I’m talking about. At the Harvard Club in New York, an old gold bond is hanging on the wall among other memorabilia. This is a gold bond bought by...

The banking industry must send out a clear message that it is committed to consistently prevent and detect financial crimes, wrote the researches. Swiss financial institutions and public authorities must do more to prevent organised crime and money laundering within the financial system, a study by the consulting firm KPMG published on Tuesday has found. The authors of the study called “Clarity on Crime in Financial...

I missed durable goods last month for scheduling reasons, which was a shame given that May is the month each year for benchmark revisions to the series. Since new estimates under the latest revisions were released today, it seems an appropriate time to revisit the topic of data bias, and why that matters. What happens with durable goods (or any data for that matter, the process is largely the same) is that the Census...

Bitcoin has tumbled back below $6,000 in early Asia trading and the rest of the crypto space is following suit. No imediate catalyst for the move – aside from technical pressure – but tougher AML rules in South Korea and US Congress being told Bitcoin is a threat to the US election may have sparked it earlier in the week and this is follow-through. Bitcoin can’t catch a bid off the weekend’s $6,000 slump… BTC/USD,...

Towards the end of 2017, Bitcoin — and with it other cryptocurrencies — experienced a real hype. Within a few months, prices shot through the ceiling. The euphoria was ginormous and in hindsight pure madness. With the new year, the disillusionment arrived. The market capitalization of all cryptocurrencies fell by more than half and prices plunged. This somewhat harsh consolidation was expected to bring the crypto world...

The KOF Economic Barometer rose again in June for the first time in three months. It increased by 1.7 points to 101.7 points, stopping its downward tendency in spring. The current Barometer value is now slightly above the long-term average of 100.0. Thus, the KOF Economic Barometer indicates a slightly above-average economic development in Switzerland. The tailwind for the Swiss economy is no longer as strong as during...

Neuchâtel, 28 June 2018 (FSO) – For the second consecutive year, the tourism balance of payments was negative in 2017. This means that expenditure by Swiss residents during visits abroad exceeded the expenditure of non-residents during their stay in Switzerland. In an economic climate still marked by a strong franc, the tourism balance of payments was CHF -122 million, according to initial estimates from the Federal...