Tag Archives: newsletter

Nothing the Fed did today, or has done up to today, has changed the curves. Eurodollar futures and UST’s, they are both still inverted. The former sharply inverted. The only thing that has changed since early January is the narrative – and not in a charitable way. It is treated as a positive when it is a pretty visible signal about deteriorating circumstances. Interpretations matter. Conventional wisdom seems settled...

In Japan, they call it “powerful monetary easing.” In practice, it is anything but. QQE with all its added letters is so authoritative that it is knocked sideways by the smallest of economic and financial breezes. If it truly worked the way it was supposed to, the Bank of Japan or any central bank would only need it for the shortest of timeframes. That would be powerful stuff. Instead, in June last year the narrative...

Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.04% at 1.1347 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, February 21(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: merkets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: The US dollar is firm against most major and emerging market currencies. There is more optimism on US-Chinese trade as a series of understandings are drafted, and an extension past March 1 of the tariff freeze is reportedly in the...

Varney and Company on Fox Business TV - Click to enlarge I joined Varney and Company on Fox Business TV earlier today. Varney had liked by bullish call on stocks from the end of last year, but seemed dismayed that I have turned cautious. I suggested that the S&P are approaching a key area a little above 2800 that has capped in Q4 18. In addition to these chart points, I am concerned that the S&P 500 has rallied...

France’s national financial crimes unit estimates around €10 billion went unreported to French tax authorities from 2004 to 2012. (Keystone) A French court on Wednesday found Swiss bank UBS guilty of illicit solicitation and laundering of the proceeds of tax fraud, imposing a hefty fine of €3.7 billion (CHF4.2 billion). The bank was convicted of illegally helping wealthy French clients evade tax authorities in France....

For much of 2018, the idea of “overseas turmoil” lived up to its name. At least in economic terms. Market-wise, there was a lot domestically to draw anyone’s honest attention. Warnings were everywhere by the end of the year. And that was what has been at issue. Some said Europe and China are on their own, the US is cocooned in a tax cut-fueled boom. Decoupling, only now the other way around. The Bureau of Economic...

In a landmark ruling that sent a clear message to other banks battling misconduct investigations in French courts, a Paris court on Wednesday found UBS guilty of having actively helped some of its wealthy French clients hide money from French tax authorities in undeclared Swiss bank accounts, and ordered the bank to pay a $5.1 billion fine. The fine represents a record sum in France, and isn’t too far below the $6...

Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.12% at 1.1337 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, February 20(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: The US dollar is narrowly mixed against the major currencies, but the strongest currency today is the Chinese yuan, following reports that US wants China to keep the yuan stable and not offset US tariffs with currency depreciation. The...

The Swiss Franc has been boosted during early morning trading as investors find the latest Trade Balance data supportive of the economy, with the Trade Balance data coming in showing a surplus of CHF3bn. The strength of the Swiss economy is its exports; in watches, chocolate and specialized industrial engineering. The franc has risen marginally and this could represent a stronger Swiss franc down the line as investors...

Europe is awash in credit exhaustion, and so is China. The signs are everywhere: credit exhaustion is global, and that means the global growth story is over: revenues and profits are all sliding as lending dries up and defaults pile up. What is credit exhaustion? Qualified buyers don’t want to borrow more, leaving only the unqualified or speculators seeking to save a marginal bet gone bad with one more loan (which will...