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Some recent factors supporting gold are fading. However, while gold could sag in the short term, medium-term prospects look better. Last year ended on a very strong note for gold demand, with a significant increase in jewellery and investment demand in the fourth quarter (see chart), leading to strong price performance (7.7% in US dollar terms in Q4). There was also a sharp increase in central bank demand in 2018,...

It is easy to think of government interference into the economy like a kind of friction. If producers and traders were fully free, then they could improve our quality of life—with new technologies, better products, and lower prices—at a rate of X. But the more that the government does, the more it burdens them. So instead of X rate of progress, we get the same end result but 10% slower or 20% slower. Some would go so...

Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.08% at 1.1345 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, February 19(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: Activity in the global capital markets is subdued as investors await fresh developments. New wording for the Irish backstop apparently is being drafted. US-China trade talks resume. No decision has been made on US auto tariffs, but...

We do not like Purchasing Power or Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) as measurement for currencies. For us, the trade balance decides if a currency is overvalued. Only the trade balance can express productivity gains, while the REER assumes constant productivity in comparison to trade partners. Who has read Michael Pettis, knows that a rising trade surplus may also be caused by a higher savings rate while the trade...

Interview de Vincent Held, auteur du Crépuscule de la Banque nationale suisse, par Orbis Terrae, Bernard Antoine Rouffaer,    janvier 2019 L’ouvrage de Vincent Held aborde une série de sujets brûlants : la politique d’affaiblissement du francs suisse menée par la Banque nationale suisse (BNS), l’imbrication de cette politique avec celles des banques privées suisses, la politique d’acquisition d’obligations d’Etat en...

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) has named Raghuram Rajan as this year’s speaker for its Karl Brunner Distinguished Lecture Series. Professor Rajan has made outstanding contributions to both economic practice and economic research on the global stage. His roles have included Governor of the Reserve Bank of India from 2013 until 2016 and Chief Economist at the IMF between 2003 and 2006. He has held a professorship at the...

Two ministers, two policies, one vote: Alain Berset (left) and Ueli Maurer. (© Keystone / Peter Klaunzer) The Swiss government has launched its campaign in favour of the upcoming national vote on a reform of the corporate tax and pension systems. Ministers for health and finance, Alain Berset and Ueli Maurer, presented their case at a press conference on Monday, urging citizens to vote ‘yes’ on May 19. Berset and...

While oil prices rebounded in January 2019 around the world, outside of crude commodities continued to struggle. According to the World Bank’s Pink Sheet, base metal prices fell another 1.8% on average from December. On an annual basis, these commodities as a group are about 16% below where they were in January 2018. The last time they had fallen by that much it was May 2016. World Bank Pink Sheet Commodity Indices...

Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.06% at 1.1349 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, February 18(see more posts on EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: In quiet turnover, the US dollar slipped lower against most of the major currencies to start the new week. The news stream is light and the US markets are closed today. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index was up five of the past six...

The main issues for investors have not changed. There are three dominant ones: Trade, growth, and Brexit. Unfortunately, there won’t be any closure in the week ahead, and that may make short-term participants reluctant to turn more aggressive. United States The US reported exceptionally poor December retail sales and January industrial output figures. Growth forecasts were adjusted. The St. Louis Fed’s GDP Now tracker,...