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The banquet of consequences is now being served, but the good seats have all been taken. As I discussed in We’re Overdue for a Sell-Everything/No-Fed-Rescue Recession, recessions have a proximate cause and a structural cause. The proximate cause is often a spike in energy costs (1973, 1990) or a financial crisis triggered by excesses of speculation and debt (2000 and 2008) or inflation (1980). Structural causes are...

Gold prices in pounds and euros as economic growth falters in UK and EU Euro & pound gold tests multi year resistance; likely to surpass due to strong demand   Improved risk appetite sees stocks rise which may be hampering stronger gains for gold Investors concerns regarding trade wars, Brexit, Italexit, the economic outlook and looser monetary policies is seeing robust demand for gold bullion Gold prices broke...

The American political discourse has changed since the 2018 midterm election. Enthusiasm and passion were to be found on the left-wing of the Democratic Party. A new sense of hope and mission replaced the defeatism and cynicism seen in 2016. Some identified with democratic socialism, but in the political rhetoric the broad brush of “socialism” has been used to paint the entire party. The 2020 contest is already being...

The Producer Price Index (PPI) or officially named “Producer and Import Price Index” describes the changes in prices for producers and importers. For us it is interesting because it is used in the formula for the Real Effective Exchange Rate. When producers and importers profit on lower price changes when compared to other countries, then the Swiss Franc reduces its overvaluation. The Swiss PPI values of -6% in 2015...

© Makasanaphoto | Dreamstime.com In October 2018, government number crunchers revised Switzerland’s federal forecast budget surplus up from CHF 0.3 billion to CHF 2.5 billion. Today, Bern announced that provisional calculations for 2018 now show a surplus of CHF 2.9 billion, CHF 0.4 billion more than last year’s revised figure. The increase was driven by strict spending discipline and higher than expected receipts,...

Now the corporate lemmings have rushed into mobile advertising. Given that corporations are run by people, and people are social animals that run in herds, it shouldn’t surprise us that corporations follow the herd, too. Take the herd move to forming conglomerates in the go-go late 1960s: corporations suddenly started buying companies in completely different sectors in businesses they knew nothing about, because...

The battle to end taxation of constitutional money has reached the federal level as U.S. Representative Alex Mooney (R-WV) today re-introduced sound money legislation to remove all federal income taxation from gold and silver coins and bullion. The Monetary Metals Tax Neutrality Act (H.R. 1089) backed by the Sound Money Defense League and free-market activists – would clarify that the sale or exchange of precious metals...

Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.25% at 1.1367 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, February 13(see more posts on EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates The Federal Reserve has long been clear on the sequence of events as it innovated the playbook during the Great Financial Crisis. There would be a considerable period between when the Fed would finish its credit easing operations that...

- Click to enlarge The pound to Swiss franc exchange rate has been steadied following comments from Mark Carney during a briefing on the global economy at the Barbican centre in London yesterday. I was fortunate to be in attendance and was struck by Carney’s confident manner, although he highlighted some major risks ahead which would be key for GBP/CHF rates. Sterling was weaker going into the talks, particularly...

Shady business: state-owned PostBus pocketed millions in federal and cantonal subsidies (Keystone) Switzerland’s reputation as a place to do business took a serious hit last year following various scandals, from corporate bank fraud to illegal subsidies. The Swiss Economy Reputation Index 2018external link, published on Tuesday by Basel-based consultancy Commslab and the fög research institute at the University of...