Tag Archives: newsletter

“The Swiss Franc was the strongest performer, EUR/CHF has fallen to 1.08 by 0.8%”. A spate of opinion polls showing a tilt toward Brexit, and the leading UK newspaper urging the Leave vote on the front page,  keep the global capital markets on edge.  Equities are lower, though of note ahead of the MSCI decision first thing Wednesday in Asia, Chinese shares eked out a small gain.  Core bond yields are 4-5 bp lower, which...

  The Sharp Move in the VIX Accelerates In Monday’s trading session, the upward move in the volatility index VIX (which measures the implied volatility of SPX options) continued unabated, vastly out of proportion with the move in the underlying stock index. “Brexit” fears continue to grow, which has apparently been the driving force behind this move. The “Brexiteers” are gaining support as the referendum date draws...

14.06.2016 09:15  – FSO, Prices (0353-1606-10) Producer and Import Price Index in May 2016 0.4% rise in Producer and Import Price Index Neuchâtel, 14.06.2016 (FSO) – The Producer and Import Price Index rose in May 2016 by 0.4% compared with the previous month, reaching 99.7 points (base December 2015 = 100). This was primarily attributable to higher prices for scrap and petroleum products. Compared with May 2015,...

Believe It Or Not… There Actually Is Some Downside Risk BALTIMORE – Not much action in the stock market last week. A few little steps ahead to over the 18,000 line for the Dow. Then a few little steps back. Currently  the index sits at 17,732. DJIA, daily Fed chief Janet Yellen has made it clear she won’t do anything to disturb investors’ sleep. But that doesn’t mean they won’t have nightmares. Our research department...

Oil prices reached their highest level in eleven months in the middle of last week.   The front-month futures contract did not post a key reversal on June 9, but the continuation contract did.  Since reaching almost $51.70 then, prices  have pushed lower, with lower highs and lower lows.  As this Great Graphic created on Bloomberg shows, a trendline drawn off the mid-February cyclical low, and hitting the early and...

 The free portfolio advanced 2.02% this week, but the S&P lost the small amount of 0.12%. Click to enlarge. The Ultima Plus portfolio became operational on 31 December 2015. Click to enlarge. Market Comment Up to Wednesday, the S&P 500 rose to a 10-month high of 2119.12 points, less than 1% below its all-time high of 2130.82 of 12 May last year. But stocks pulled back on Thursday and more decisively on...

This infographic was in the Wall Street Journal on the US election.  It is important to remember that the US does not elect the President by direct popular vote.  This makes the national polls a bit misleading. There are 538 electoral college votes.  To be elected a candidate must secure a majority or 270  electoral college votes.    Obama received 332 elector votes and Romney 206. The WSJ cites four major...

Swiss Franc Chandler is a bit puzzled about the Swiss Franc, that got stronger despite speculators being short CHF. We see weaker oil prices and weaker China as major reason, why sight deposits are falling and speculators are long the dollar. See the Dukascopy Video FX Rates The risk that the UK votes to leave the EU next week is the dominant force in the capital markets.  It is a continuation of what was seen at...

One of the most profound criticisms of the EU that it remains, even at this late date, primarily an elite project.  The democratic deficit has grown, according to the latest Pew Research multi-country poll. The Pew Research survey covered ten countries that represent 80% of the EU28 population and  82% of the region’s GDP.   The poll surveyed nearly 10.5k people between April 4 and May 12. It found that 2/3 of the both...

  European Stocks Look Really Bad… Late last week stock markets around the world weakened and it seemed as though recent “Brexit” polls showing that the “leave” campaign has obtained a slight lead provided the trigger. The idea was supported by a notable surge in the British pound’s volatility. Battening down the hatches… Euro-Stoxx 50 Index On the other hand, if one looks at European stocks, one could just as well...