Tag Archives: newsletter

Summary: Regardless of outcome early next week, the High Court’s decision will likely be appealed. The issue is the role of parliament. The greater the role, the greater the risk of a delay, but also a better chance to minimize a hard Brexit. The UK decision to leave the EU has been both a political and economic shock. The near-term focus now shifts to the constitutional crisis that has ensued. The key issue...

Swiss Franc EUR/CHF Overview, October 12 2016(see more posts on EUR/CHF, ) - Click to enlarge FX Rates News that UK Prime Minister May has accepted that Parliament should vote on her plan for exiting the EU stopped sterling’s headlong slide. Sterling had been pounded for roughly 8.5 cents since the start of the month including the last four sessions. The idea that parliament, where the Conservatives enjoy a...

Summary: Sterling’s decline is not longer coinciding with lower rates. Sterling’s decline is boosting inflation expectations. If the inflation expectations are realized (Sept CPI next week), it will quickly erode what ever competitive gains there may have been. Something has changed with sterling. It is not just last week’s flash crash that seems now to be more of a mark down than fat-finger, liquidity or...

Natalie Vein of BFI speaks with Doug Casey Our friend Natalie Vein recently had the opportunity to conduct an extensive interview with Doug Casey for BFI, the  parent company of Global Gold. Based on his decades-long experience in investing and his many travels, he shares his views on the state of the world economy, his outlook on critical political developments in the US and in Europe, as well as his investment...

Escaping the Hurricane BALTIMORE – Last week, we got a peek at the End of the World. As Hurricane Matthew approached the coast of Florida, a panic set in. Gas stations ran out of fuel. Stores ran out of food. Banks ran out of cash. A satellite image of hurricane Matthew taken on October 4. He didn’t look very friendly. Image via twitter.com - Click to enlarge “Evacuate or die,” we were told. Not wanting to do...

Swiss Franc EUR CHF - Euro Swiss Franc, October 11 2016(see more posts on EUR/CHF, ). - Click to enlarge FX Rates The US dollar is bid against all the major and most emerging market curerncies.  An important driver is the backing up of US rates.  The two-year yield, which is particularly sensitive to Fed policy is at it highest levbel since early June (~86 bp).  The US 10-year yield is five basis points hihger...

© Yulan | Dreamstime.com - Click to enlarge The Swiss National Bank can cut interest rates further into negative territory if needed, President Thomas Jordan said. “We have still some room to go further if necessary,” Jordan said Saturday in an interview in Washington with Bloomberg Television’s Francine Lacqua. Jordan, who is attending the annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, noted...

Australian property bubble on a scale like no other Yesterday Citi produced a new index which pinned the Australian property bubble at 16 year highs: Bubble trouble. Whether we label them bubbles, the Australian economy has experienced a series of developments that potentially could have the economy lurching from boom to bust and back. In recent years these have included:  the record run up in commodity prices and...

Sentiment and Positioning When we last discussed the gold sector correction (which had only just begun at the time), we mentioned we would update sentiment and positioning data on occasion. For a while, not much changed in these indicators, but as one would expect, last week’s sharp sell-off did in fact move the needle a bit. Gold – just as nice to look at as it always is, but slightly cheaper since last week. Photo...

Summary: The year-long euro uptrend comes in near $1.1035, just below the August lows. The technical are fragile, but the euro is below its lower Bollinger Band. The fundamental driver seems to be the backing up of US rates, and widening premium over Germany. This Great Graphic, composed on Bloomberg shows the euro against the dollar since the start of the year. It shows the trendline drawn off the...