Tag Archives: newsletter

The euro has hit new lows against the US dollar. We are revising down our EUR/USD projections for the next few months. The euro broke to the downside from its tight trading range relative to the US dollar since the end of May. These new lows go against our expectations of a gradual appreciation of the single currency relative to the greenback in the second half of the year and indicate that we have underestimated the...

A shortage of skilled labour continues to affect the Swiss job market, according to the latest surveyexternal link by employment agency Manpower. Among reasons given for difficulties in finding the right candidates, 30% of employers surveyed cited a lack of technical skills, 29% a lack of candidates, 17% blamed a lack of professional experience and 14% cited missing interpersonal skills. Among the most sought-after...

The topic of how much extractable gold is left in the world has become increasingly discussed within the last few years. This is because of increased focus on ‘peak gold’ and also a concern about remaining levels of unextracted gold reserves. Peak gold is a term referring to the phenomenon of annual gold mining supply peaking (i.e. the rate of gold extraction increases until it peaks at maximum gold output and...

Last week, we discussed the tension between forces pushing the dollar up and down (measured in gold—you cannot measure the dollar in terms of its derivatives such as euro, pound, yen, and yuan). And we gave short shrift to the forces pushing the dollar down. We said only that to own a dollar is to be a creditor. And if the debtors seem in imminent danger of default, then creditors should want to escape this risk. The...

Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.11% to 1.1348. EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, August 20(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates The US dollar is slightly firmer against most of the major currencies, as the light participation and lack of fresh news see a consolidative tone emerge after the pullback at the end of last week. Although markets in Turkey are closed for a...

Turkey Officials have taken steps to make it more difficult and more expensive to short the lira, but that did not prevent a 5% slide ahead of the weekend. There is no interest rate, within reason, that can compensate for such currency risk. When S&P cut its sovereign credit rating to B+ from BB- and retained a stable outlook, it did not cite the dispute over the pastor. Moody’s cut Turkey’s rating to Ba3 from Ba2...

Stock Markets EM FX stabilized last week as the situation in Turkey calmed somewhat. Reports Friday that the US and China are hoping to resolve the trade dispute also helped EM FX ahead of the weekend. However, TRY remains vulnerable as the US threatens more sanctions due to the pastor. Both S&P and Moody’s downgraded it ahead of the weekend and our own ratings model points to further downgrades ahead. Turkish...

The US policy mix gets a privileged place in our understanding of what is the dollar. Tighter monetary policy and looser fiscal policy could be the closest thing to an elixir for currencies. It is the policy mix that the US is pursuing. The idea is that such a policy mixed draws capital inflows. This is exactly what is happening. The June TIC data was reported yesterday, and there was a net purchase of $114.5 bln of US...

Swiss health insurance companies are aiming to change laws to make it easier for them to unilaterally end complementary insurance contracts, according to the newspaper Le Matin. © Andrii Yalanskyi | Dreamstime.com - Click to enlarge Health insurers have managed to get this possibility included in a project aimed at revising Switzerland’s laws on insurance contracts, set for discussion by a parliamentary committee this...

If you want to preserve your sanity and avoid unhappy derangement, turn off all corporate and social media from now to Thanksgiving. Since elections are extremely profitable for traditional media / social media corporations, your sanity will gleefully be sacrificed in the upcoming election–if you are gullible enough to watch the “news” and tune into social media.Elections are extremely profitable because candidates...