Tag Archives: India

What was the difference between Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers? Well, for one thing Lehman’s failure wasn’t a singular event. In the heady days of September 2008, authorities working for any number of initialism agencies were busy trying to put out fires seemingly everywhere. Lehman had to compete with an AIG as well as a Wachovia, already preceded by a Fannie and a Freddie. If Lehman was the personification of...

The surprise resignation of governor of the Reserve Bank of India poses a question mark over its policies and independence ahead of next year’s election.Urjit R. Patel, the governor of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), unexpectedly resigned on 10 December, just four days before a crucial board meeting on discuss internal governance issues.His resignation came amid a period of acute tension between the RBI and the Indian government over a range of issues, from banking regulations and the use...

There has been a lot of media coverage recently about the re-emergence of central bank gold buying and the overall larger quantity of gold than central banks as a group have been buying recently compared to previous years. For example, according to the World Gold Council’s Gold Demand Trends for Q3 2018, net purchases of gold by central banks in the third quarter of this year were 22% higher than Q3 2017, and the...

In recent weeks, global financial markets have been increasingly spooked by an intensifying crisis in emerging market currencies including those of Turkey and Argentina. Add to this the ongoing currency crisis in Venezuela and the currency problems of Iran. While all of these countries have economy specific reasons that explain at least some of their currency weakness, there are some common themes such as a stronger US...

Stock Markets EM FX was whipsawed last week but ended on a firm note. We look past the noise and believe that the true signals for EM remain higher US interest rates and continued trade tensions, both of which are negative. Turkish markets reopen after a week off. Nothing fundamentally has changed there, and so it still poses some spillover risk to wider EM. Stock Markets Emerging Markets, August 22 - Click to...

Stock Markets EM FX came under greater pressure last week as the situation in Turkey deteriorated.  With no weekend developments as of this writing, we expect Turkish assets to remain under pressure this week. Five worst EM currencies YTD are TRY (-41%), ARS (-36%), RUB (-15%), BRL (-14.5%), and ZAR (-12%). All five have serious baggage that warrants continued underperformance.Yet it’s worth noting that the five best...

Stock Markets EM FX enjoyed a respite from the ongoing selling pressures, with most currencies up on the week vs. the dollar. Best performers were CLP, MXN, and ZAR while the worst were TRY, CNY, and COP.  BOJ, Fed, and BOE meetings this week may pose some risks to EM FX. Stock Markets Emerging Markets, July 25 - Click to enlarge South Africa South Africa reports June money, loan, and budget data Monday. June...

Stock Markets EM FX ended Friday on a mixed note, capping off a roller coaster week for some of the more vulnerable currencies. We expect continued efforts by EM policymakers to inject some stability into the markets. However, we believe the underlying dollar rally remains intact. Central bank meetings in the US, eurozone, and Japan this week are likely to drive home that point. Stock Markets Emerging Markets, June 6...

 Summary The Reserve Bank of India hiked rates for the first time since 2014. Malaysia’s central bank governor resigned. Czech central bank tilted more hawkish. Russia central bank tilted more dovish. Argentina got a $50 bln standby program from the IMF. Brazil central bank signaled more aggressive FX intervention ahead. Mexico trade tensions with US are rising. Peru has a new Finance Minister. Stock Markets In the EM...

Stock Markets EM FX put in a mixed performance Friday, and capped off an overall mixed week. Over that week, the best performers were IDR, TRY, and INR while the worst were BRL, MXN, and ARS. US yields are recovering and likely to put renewed pressure on EM FX. Stock Markets Emerging Markets, May 30 Source: economist.com - Click to enlarge Indonesia Indonesia reports May CPI Monday, which is expected to rise...