SNB & CHF

Largely due to a flood of central bank liquidity, global private financial assets have grown by 61% over the seven years since the financial crisis, almost twice the growth rate of economic output, says a report from the German Insurance giant Allianz. This has boosted the wealth of those who own shares. Those relying on interest, on the other hand have seen their wealth stagnate. The report goes on to say “after seven...

Swiss Franc The EUR/CHF accelerated its decline since yesterday’s strong Swiss trade balance data. The second reason was certainly the Fed decided to keep rates unchanged. We know that the Swiss Franc has similar “counter-dollar” status as gold. Click to enlarge. Japan Much of what the Bank of Japan announced today had been largely leaked. While there was a sizeable response in the asset markets, the dollar’s...

In a report published by SECO, a group of economy experts working for Switzerland’s federal government, says it anticipates an acceleration in economic growth in Switzerland from 0.8% in 2015 to 1.5% in 2016 and 1.9% in 2017. Along side this they expect unemployment to rise from 3.3% in 2015, to an annual average of 3.6% in 2016, before falling again to 3.4% in 2017. However, they also see risks. © Flynt |...

A question worth asking considering the rather large amount of them knocking about at the moment. According to JPM, the total universe of government bonds traded with a negative yield was $3.6tr last week or 16 per cent of the JPM Global Government Bond Index. It’s an answer in itself, really. Anyway, here’s a list of those willing/ forced to buy those negative yielding government bonds from JPM’s Niko...

Swiss watch exports fell in August as demand weakened from Japan to the U.S., extending the industry’s slump to fourteen months. The Swiss watch industry is strongly correlated with the growth in Asia. While the chemical and pharmaceutical industry (the “Basel companies”) export a lot into the United States. The firmer is currently weakening, while the latter profits on the stronger dollar and “Obamacare demand”. As...

I consider it self-evident that we are in the third and final stage of self-serving Imperial decay. Here is the current context of the discussion of Imperial lifecycles: the U.S. defense budget is roughly the same size as the rest of the world’s defense spending combined => Luttwak describes the first stage of expansion thusly: “With brutal simplicity, it might be said that with the first system the Romans of...

Sep 21 – Well-known author and economic commentator, Charles Hugh Smith at oftwominds.com, explains the “optimization problem” facing policymakers and why this inevitably leads to some form of economic self-destruction... http://www.financialsense.com/subscribe

We do not like Purchasing Power or Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) as measurement for currencies. For us, the trade balance decides if a currency is overvalued.  Only the trade balance can express productivity increases, while REER assumes constant productivity in comparison to trade partners. On the other side, a rising trade surplus may also be caused by a higher savings rate while the trade partners decided to...

Swiss Franc For us the developments in the trade balance express if a currency is overvalued or not (more details here). The Swiss trade surplus is constant or rather rising, hence the Swiss Franc is correctly valued or rather undervalued.And – as we see below – the franc appreciated. Switzerland Trade Balance(see more posts on Switzerland Trade Balance, )Switzerland Trade Balance – click to enlarge. FX Rates...

The priesthood’s insane obsession with forcing people to spend their savings by punishing savers with ZIRP/NIRP has failed spectacularly for a simple reason: it completely misunderstands human psychology. Let’s start with a simple chart of the Fed Funds Rate, which the Federal Reserve has pinned near zero for years. This Zero Rate Interest Policy (ZIRP) is the god the PhD economists in the Fed and other central banks...