SNB & CHF

Swiss Franc Currency Index Weak inflation figures in the euro zone let the common currency fall against both the dollar and the Swiss franc. Still last week, the Swiss Franc index had some losses against the US dollar index. Trade-weighted index Swiss Franc, April 01(see more posts on Swiss Franc Index, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge Swiss Franc Currency Index (3 years) The Swiss Franc index is...

For the first time in 57 months, a span of nearly five years, the Fed’s preferred metric for US consumer price inflation reached the central bank’s explicit 2% target level. The PCE Deflator index was 2.12% higher in February 2017 than February 2016. Though rhetoric surrounding this result is often heated, the actual indicated inflation is decidedly not despite breaking above for once. In many ways 2.12% is hugely...

Gross Domestic Product was revised slightly higher for Q4 2016, which is to say it wasn’t meaningfully different. At 2.05842%, real GDP projects output growing for one quarter close to its projected potential, a less than desirable result. It is fashionable of late to discuss 2% or 2.1% as if these are good numbers consistent with a healthy economy. This level of advance, however, factors none of the imbalances and...

Personal Income growth in February 2017 was more mixed than it had been of recent months. Nominal Disposable Per Capita Income increased 3.73% year-over-year, while in real terms Per Capita Income was up 1.57%. For the former, that was among the better monthly results over the past year, while the latter was near the worst. The difference is still calculated inflation, where the rising oil component of every deflator...

Summary: MSCI Emerging Market Index is up 12.25% here in Q1. The index is approaching long-standing technical objectives. Look for profit-taking ahead of quarter-end as fund managers rebalance. This Great Graphic from Bloomberg is a weekly bar chart of MSCI Emerging Market equity index.   In H2 15 and H1 16, it carved out a head and shoulders bottom that we identify on the chart. We also drew in the neckline...

Credit Suisse has confirmed that the Swiss bank, some of its employees and hundreds of account holders are the subjects of a major tax evasion probe launched in UK, France, Australia, Germany and the Netherlands, setting back Swiss attempts to clean up its image as a haven for tax evaders. According to Bloomberg, Dutch investigators seized jewellery, paintings and even gold bars as part of a sweeping investigation into...

Unless we change the fundamental structure of the economy so that actually producing goods and services and hiring people is more profitable than playing financial games with phantom assets, the end-game of financialization is financial collapse. I presented this chart of rising wealth inequality a number of times over the past year. Do you notice something peculiar about the inflection points in the 1980s? US...

  Wrong Focus If one searches for news on LIBOR (=London Interbank Offered Rate, i.e., the rate at which banks lend dollars to each other in the euro-dollar market), they are currently dominated by Deutsche Bank getting slapped with a total fine of $775 million for the part it played in manipulating the benchmark rate in collusion with other banks (fine for one count of wire fraud: US$150 m.; additional shakedown by US...

(draft of monthly column for Caixin) The election of Donald Trump as the 45th President of the United States surprised many people, even seasoned political observers and astute investors. He failed to win the popular vote but did carry the electoral college, which is how the US elects its chief executive. His victory is a bit of a Rorshcach test, where people project the issues that allowed Trump to succeed, with...

In March 2017, the KOF Economic Barometer rose by 0.7 points to a new reading of 107.6. It thus reinforces its previous month’s climb to a level clearly above its long-term average. This indicates that the Swiss economy should grow at above average rates in the near future. In March 2017, the KOF Economic Barometer climbed from 106.9 in February (revised down from 107.2) by 0.7 points to a level of 107.6....