Perspectives Pictet

The surprising fall in euro area core inflation in October was largely driven by one-off factors we expect will be partly reversed.This week’s final euro area HICP report has provided us and the ECB with greater clarity over the drivers of the surprisingly large fall in core HICP inflation, from 1.11% to 0.89% year-on-year in October. The drop was largely led by one-off moves in Germany (airfares, package holidays) and by education prices in Italy. Although the latter will weigh on the...

The authorities are growing more tolerant of lower headline growth, which is already showing early signs of declining.The latest Chinese economic data for October indicate the moderate deceleration in growth already seen in Q3 is extending into Q4. Both exports and domestic demand have slowed, particularly in terms of fixed-asset investment. National fiscal spending has shown signs of slowing, and central government has cut off support for some regional infrastructure projects on concerns of...

The latest GDP data confirm the economy is expanding steadily. While we have slightly lowered our growth forecast for this year, our 2018 forecast remains unchanged.Japanese GDP for Q3 came in at JPY545.8 trillion annualised, rising 1.4% q-o-q and 1.7% y-o-y in real terms.The data are broadly consistent with our view of a moderate deceleration of the Japanese economy in H2 after a strong Q2. The positive growth in Q3 marks the seventh consecutive quarter of economic expansion in Japan, the...

The US expansion has crossed the 100-month mark. But while it has aged, the economy still has legs.The US expansion, which started in July 2009, just crossed its 100-month mark, making it – for now – the third longest in the National Bureau of Economic Research database, which stretches back to 1854. The longest growth was 119 months between April 1991 and February 2001.The exceptional length of this expansion, already well above the 94-month average for the three previous growth cycles,...

Latest growth data indicate continuation of a strong and stable recovery. Our GDP forecasts remain unchanged.Euro area headline GDP growth was confirmed at 0.6% q-o-q in Q3.At the country level, Germany surprised to the upside, posting GDP growth of 0.8% q-o-q in Q3 and beating consensus expectations. The impressive performance was driven by exports and investment in equipment and machinery. Turning to Italy, economic activity strengthened in Q3. After a rise of 0.3% q-o-q in Q2, real GDP...

Pictet Wealth Management’s latest positioning in fast-evolving markets.Asset allocationWe remain constructive on equities, which are being underpinned in particular by robust earnings growth.However, there are signs of pressure, especially in forex markets, and occasional spikes in volatility are likely, notably as a result of geopolitical risk. It is worth considering risk mitigation for portfolios put options on equity indices are one way to protect some of the downside.US tax cuts could...

Baguazhang

Baguazhang

Global growth, post-hurricane reconstruction and higher oil prices are all provided a boost to the US growth outlook. But uncertainty still hangs over tax cuts and the Fed.We are raising our US GDP forecast for 2017 (+0.1 percentage point to 2.3%) and 2018 (+0.3 point to 2.0%) on the back of stronger momentum in Q4 2017. Accelerating global growth is a tailwind for the US economy – as seen in the recent sharp pick up in exports, particularly to emerging markets. Reconstruction efforts in the...

The Australian and New Zealand dollar are among the most expensive currencies. The former looks especially vulnerable to a mild pullback.At their November monetary meeting, both the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) kept their official cash rates unchanged at, respectively, 1.50% and 1.75%.The RBA sounded relatively cautious given low wage growth and high household debt. The RBNZ was more upbeat in light of the potential for more fiscal stimulus under...