Dirk Niepelt

Promising to do “whatever it takes” in order to avert a bad equilibrium is very different from printing money when the problem is a lack of resources, or their distribution. See Gilles Saint-Paul’s “Whatever it Takes.”

Valor, 14 April 2020. PDF. Short interview on the implications of the Covid-19 shock for businesses, pensions, government finances, and asset markets. Longer online interview and video.

CEPR Discussion Paper 14612, April 2020, with Martin Gonzalez-Eiras. PDF (local copy). We embed a lockdown choice in a simplified epidemiological model and derive formulas for the optimal lockdown intensity and duration. The optimal policy reflects the rate of time preference, epidemiological factors, the hazard rate of vaccine discovery, learning effects in the health care sector, and the severity of output losses due to a lockdown. In our baseline specification a Covid-19 shock as...

CEPR Discussion Paper 14612, April 2020, with Martin Gonzalez-Eiras. PDF (local copy). We embed a lockdown choice in a simplified epidemiological model and derive formulas for the optimal lockdown intensity and duration. The optimal policy reflects the rate of time preference, epidemiological factors, the hazard rate of vaccine discovery, learning effects in the health care sector, and the severity of output losses due to a lockdown. In our baseline specification a Covid-19 shock as...

In Die Mittelländische Zeitung, a Swiss doctor criticizes Switzerland’s preparations and response to Covid-19. He points to Lack of preparation by political decision makers Misleading communication by federal health officials Their apparent lack of awareness of academic work on the topic Arrogance in Switzerland and the West vis-à-vis China and other far eastern countries Sensationalist scare mongering in the media Calls for systematic infection of groups that are less at risk Informative...

Data from April 6, 2020. Iceland and Luxembourg have many more confirmed cases per capita than other countries (either because they have more cases or better information). Mortality per confirmed case is highest in Italy, Spain, France, Belgium, Netherlands, UK. Source: Author’s calculations based on Johns Hopkins data and World Bank data.

Ökonomenstimme, 3 April 2020. HTML. Shorter version published in NZZ. The aggregate Covid-19 shock calls for transfers of the type a pandemic insurance would have brought about. But we must not distort relative prices. They have to reflect scarcity, to provide incentives to overcome it. (This applies within countries but also across.)

NZZ, 2 April 2020. PDF. The aggregate Covid-19 shock calls for transfers of the type a pandemic insurance would have brought about. But we must not distort relative prices. They have to reflect scarcity, to provide incentives to overcome it. (This applies within countries but also across.)

How Switzerland peps up SMEs: Banks are encouraged to extend credit (at 0%). The treasury guarantees the loans. The SNB refinances banks and accepts the guaranteed loans as collateral. Fast and efficient. Eventually, some of these loans will turn into grants of course. But that’s ok; the first-best response to a shock with asymmetric effects does involve transfers if markets are incomplete.

The first of a long sequence of nice papers on the virus by economists are out: Martin Eichenbaum, Sergio Rebelo, and Mathias Trabandt (2020), The Macroeconomics of Epidemics. NBER wp 26882. (My comments on Twitter.) James Stock (2020), Coronavirus Data Gaps and the Policy Response to the Novel Corona Virus. Mimeo. Conclusion: There is an urgent need to reliably estimate the asymptomatic rate—the share among the infected who do not show strong symptoms. Data: Unconditional mortality rates...