Tag Archives: S&P 500

While monetary tightening remains the main risk for global stock markets, the threat of a trade war continues to dominate the headlines… THE DONALD’S DEALMAKING The question raised by Donald Trump’s trade agenda with China remains, in essence, extremely simple. It is whether The Donald is engaged in a typical ‘Art of the Deal’ negotiation, where he can suddenly turn on a dime and declare a ‘win’, or whether he is...

The risk budget is unchanged this month. For the moderate risk investor the allocation to bonds and risk assets is evenly split. There are changes this month within the asset classes. How far are we from the end of this cycle? When will the next recession arrive and more importantly when will stocks and other markets start to anticipate a slowdown? These are critical questions for investors and ones that can’t be...

– Gold outperforming stocks in 2018 and this century (see chart) – Gold up close to 2% in 2018 while S&P 500 is down 2%– Trump trade wars and Kudlow as Trump chief economic advisor is gold bullish – Given gold’s performance, Kudlow’s dismissal of gold as “end of the world insurance” is “irrational”– Market volatility could drive gold to $1,500/oz in 2018 – Holmes Editor: Mark O’Byrne In a January post, I showed how...

So who’s holding the hot potato of systemic risk now? Everyone. One of the greatest con jobs of the past 9 years is the status quo’s equivalence of risk and volatility: risk = volatility: so if volatility is low, then risk is low. Wrong: volatility once reflected specific short-term aspects of risk, but measures of volatility such as the VIX have been hijacked to generate the illusion that risk is low. But even an...

Gold Hits All-Time Highs Priced In Emerging Market Currencies – Gold at all time in eight major emerging market currencies– A stronger performance than seen when priced in USD, EUR or GBP– As world steps away from US dollar hegemony expect new gold highs in $, € and £ – Gold is a hedge against currency debasement and depreciation of fiat currencies Gold Prices in Emerging Markets Currencies, 2010 - 2018(see more posts...

There is no change to the risk budget this month. For the moderate risk investor the allocation to bonds is 50%, risk assets 45% and cash 5%. The extreme overbought condition of the US stock market persists so I will continue to hold a modest amount of cash. There are some minor changes within the portfolios but the overall allocation is unchanged. - Click to enlarge There have been two major developments since...

Silver’s Positive Fundamentals Due To Strong Demand In Key Growth Industries – Increased efforts in green energy and advanced technology set to boosts silver’s demand – Four-year supply deficit set to increase due to fewer mine openings and discoveries – Bank manipulation may be why silver under performing – TD Securities and the Bank of Montreal expect silver to be best performing precious metal in 2018 – Growing...

There is no change to the risk budget this month. For the moderate risk investor the allocation to bonds is 50%, risk assets 45% and cash 5%. The extreme overbought condition of the US stock market did not correct since the last update and so I will continue to hold a modest amount of cash. Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future… Niels Bohr Every time I see that quote I think to myself, “but that...

The economy is booming. Employment is at decade lows. Unemployment claims are at the lowest levels in 40-years. The stock market is at record highs and climbing. Consumers are more confident than they have been in a decade. Wages are finally showing signs of growth. What’s not to love? I just have one question. If things are so good, then why is America’s saving rate posting such a sharp decline? The answer is not...

Many things that are scarce and thus valuable cannot be bought on the global marketplace. Now that almost every asset class is in a bubble, the question of where to invest one’s capital has become particularly vexing. The ashes of wealth consumed by the 2008-09 Global Financial Meltdown are still warm, at least to those who never recovered, and so buying assets at nosebleed valuations in the hopes of earning another 5%...