Tag Archives: S&P 500

by Dominic Frisby of Money Week Every year, Ronald-Peter Stoeferle and Mark J Valek of investment and asset management company Incrementum put together the report In Gold We Trust – 160-plus pages of charts and thoughts, mostly gold-related, on the state of the world’s finances. There’s so much to look at and consider. It’s a sort of digital equivalent of a coffee-table book. Yesterday I got an email from them, containing a “best of” – a compendium of some of the best...

World stocks eased back from record highs and fell for the first time in eight days, as jitters about Catalonia’s independence push returned while bets on higher U.S. interest rates sent the dollar to its highest since mid August; S&P 500 futures were modestly in the red – as they have been every day this week before levitating to record highs – ahead of hurricane-distorted nonfarm payrolls data (full preview here)....

It has now been 318 trading days since the S&P 500 suffered a 5% drawdown – the 4th-longest streak since 1928… So everything is awesome… [embedded content] BUT…US ‘hard’ economic data has not been this weak (and seen the biggest drop) since Feb 2009… US Data Surprise Index, 2006 - 2017 - Click to enlarge Q3 Was a Roller-Coaster… Q3 was the 8th straight quarterly gain in a row for The Dow – the longest streak...

Commodities King Gartman Says Gold Soon Reach $1,400 As Drums of War Grow Louder - 'Commodities King' Gartman sees $1,400 gold surge in months- "Gold is the one currency that will do the best of all..."- Pullback below $1300 "is relatively inconsequential"- Use gold price weakness to be a buyer "no question"- Bullish on gold due to central banks and easy monetary policy and gold will be even higher in euro terms- Gold will be the best of all, as a result of QE and expansionary policies-...

– 4 reasons why “gold has entered a new bull market” – Schroders– Market complacency is key to gold bull market say Schroders– Investors are currently pricing in the most benign risk environment in history as seen in the VIX– History shows gold has the potential to perform very well in periods of stock market weakness (see chart)– You should buy insurance when insurers don’t believe that the “risk event” will happen–...

  Recurring Phenomena Many market participants believe simple phenomena in the stock market are purely random events and cannot recur consistently. Indeed, there is probably no stock market “rule” that will remain valid forever. However, there continue to be certain statistical phenomena in the stock market – even quite simple ones – that have shown a tendency to persist for very long time periods. In today’s report I...

Don’t let “traditional biases” stop you from diversifying into gold – Dalio on Linkedin “Risks are now rising and do not appear appropriately priced in” warns founder of world’s largest hedge fund Geo-political risk from North Korea & “risk of hellacious war” Risk that U.S. debt ceiling not raised; technical US default Safe haven gold likely to benefit by more than dollar, treasuries Investors should allocate at...

Now that the possibility of a war between the US and North Korea seems just one harshly worded tweet away, and the window of opportunity for a diplomatic solution, as well as for the US stopping Kim Jong-Un from obtaining a nuclear-armed ICBM closing fast, analysts have started to analyze President Trump’s military options, what a war between the US and North Korea would look like, and what the global economic...

Late 2014/early 2015 will perhaps be the closest to a real recovery from the Great “Recession” we shall see in this cycle.  Q1 2015 marked the peak year over year growth rate of GDP in this recovery at 3.76%. That rate compares quite unfavorably with even the feeble post dot com crash recovery high of 4.41% in Q1 2004. It doesn’t even come close to the routine 4-5% year over year growth rates we saw in the late 90s....

US futures are set for a sharply lower open (at least in recent market terms) following a steep decline in European stocks and a selloff in Asian shares, following yesterday’s sharp escalation in the war of words between the U.S. and North Korea. In a broad risk-off move U.S. Treasuries rose, the VIX surged above 12 overnight, while German bund futures climbed to the highest level in six weeks. The Swiss franc gained...